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Kraken working as intended

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DeletedUser25795

Hi all, I know the kraken is new to I might be jumping to conclusions to early but can anyone tell me:

1. How do we know how many uses we have left.
2. Is kraken killing anything yet. I have attacked 10 times in GE and not had any kills yet (200% chance 20% x 10). Or am I just unlucky so far.
 

DeletedUser4441

Seems to be. The uses issue was an oversight that will be corrected.

20% x10 means you have 20% chance of killing a unit in up to 10 different encounters, not a 200% chance of activation.
 

DeletedUser25795

I have attacked 10 encounters so in theory I should have seen the kraken pop his head out twice but haven't seen him yet. That is a 200% chance that he should have popped his head out by now.

I will keep fighting after each time the GB levels and will update here to see how many attempts it took. If others can do the same then we can get a bigger picture.
 

DeletedUser

purps99 said:
I have attacked 10 encounters so in theory I should have seen the kraken pop his head out twice but haven't seen him yet. That is a 200% chance that he should have popped his head out by now.

I will keep fighting after each time the GB levels and will update here to see how many attempts it took. If others can do the same then we can get a bigger picture.
Click to expand...
You really don't understand percentages as they apply to random chances, do you?
 

DeletedUser25795

I fully understand percentages hence why I started this thread, that is why I asked "or am I just unlucky". If you have a 20% chance of something happening it should happen once every 5 times (on average) so if you do the same thing 10 times it should therefore of happened twice (on average) (i.e. 200% chance of it happening by now).

I have since level my GB and fought again and still no kills. I have asked in global chat if anyone has seen a kill yet as many have the Kraken and no-one has yet seen a kill. That is why I am asking if the GB is working as intended.

p.s. I have only fought in GE so far.
 

DeletedUser13838

Based on the given percentages there's about an 11% chance you won't see mr. kraken pop his head out after 10 tries.
 

DeletedUser25795

OK then I am miss reading it. It says "For the first 10 battles, there is 20% chance of killing one enemy".

1. Does that mean that somewhere within the first 10 battles you have a chance at 20% of killing. (i.e. a 20% chance per day) or
2. There is a 20% chance of killing an enemy at the start of each round (maximum of 10 rounds) (i.e. 200% chance per day).

I read it as the 2nd option but from what you just said you are reading it as the first option.

Option 1 would result in 50 battles before a kill (2% chance of a kill) = 1 kill every 5 days.
Option 2 would result in 5 battles before a kill (20% chance of a kill) = 2 kills per day.

Presuming my luck is average and I don't level my GB.
 
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DeletedUser13838

The chance isn't cumulative - you get a 20% chance for each battle up to 10 battles. After 10 battles you get no more chances until your next collection (or level up). The assumption is that each chance is independent of the other. I personally got 1 krak in 10 battles (continent map).

So the chance of failing all 10 tries is 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% = 10.7%.
 

DeletedUser25795

So you are saying I was right all along then, it is Option 2. You get to kill 2 per day on average not 1 kill every 5 days then like Option 1.

So after leveling my GB up 3 times fighting 30 battles and still NO KILL I am very, very unlucky then ?

Will level it up again and try the Continental Map as 30 attempts on GE didn't work.

If i dice has 5 sides and you want to roll a 1, There is a 20% chance you will roll a 1 (1 in 5 chance = 20%) you don't roll a 1 so try again there is now a 40% chance you will roll a 1 (2 in 5 chance = 40%) after 10 attempts you should on average rolled 2 x 1's i.e. a 200% chance of rolling a 1 if you roll it 10 times. I don't know how else to simplify this for people.

EDIT: 30 GE = nothing, then did 2 encounters on Continental map and both times Kraken popped his head out, so it might be a problem with just GE. Will give it a few more days then get a larger view to see if this is the case.
 
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DeletedUser25795

ForGotten3 said:
Does anyone have a screenshot of its ability in battle?
Click to expand...

Sorry it's too fast... As soon as the screen loads its a large puff of purple smoke on top of the enemy unit and the unit disappears.

Maybe if someone can video it they might be able to capture a screen shot.
 

DeletedUser

purps99 said:
There is a 20% chance you will roll a 1 (1 in 5 chance = 20%) you don't roll a 1 so try again there is now a 40% chance you will roll a 1 (2 in 5 chance = 40%)
Click to expand...
See, this is why I said you don't understand % as it applies to random chances. The first time you roll, your chance is 20%, or 1 in 5. The second time you roll, your chance is 20%, or 1 in 5. The third time you roll, your chance is 20%, or 1 in 5. It is not cumulative, and it never changes! It's not 20%, then 40%, then 60%. It's 20%, then 20%, then 20%. Previous and subsequent rolls have no effect on the current roll. That is what you're not understanding. Yes, you are just being unlucky right now. And the people that are being lucky right now are understandably not complaining about it. It is possible, though not likely, to be eternally unlucky. It is equally possible, though just as unlikely, to be eternally lucky. There will be some players everywhere on the curve between lucky and unlucky. Bottom line is you were right that it is a 20% chance on your first 10 battles after you collect, but completely off base on that 20% being cumulative.
 

DeletedUser25795

OK think we will have to agree to disagree on our wording, I know what I am trying to say but seams I am unable to say it the right way. I know its not accumulative but I am trying to add in the probabilities of something happening if it didn't happen over and over again then the probability increases.

Happy I got it to work in continental map I just need it to work in GE then I will be even more happy. Will keep looking to see if GE ever works for me. Hope it's not age based as that might explain why it's not working in GE for me.
 
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DeletedUser

purps99 said:
I know its not accumulative but I am trying to add in the probabilities of something happening if it didn't happen over and over again then the probability increases.
Click to expand...
THE PROBABILITY DOES NOT INCREASE. IF IT DID, THAT WOULD MEAN THAT IT WAS CUMULATIVE. BUT IT'S NOT. EACH TIME IT IS 20% FOR THAT INSTANCE. THAT NEVER CHANGES.

P.S.: I know what you're trying to say, too. You're trying to say it's cumulative when it's not. That's why I keep telling you that you're wrong. Because you are.
 

DeletedUser25795

The accumulative parts negates the luck part. You are playing a board game and you land in Jail, to get out of Jail you need to throw a 1. Using a 5 sided dice you have a 1 in 5 chance to roll a 1, you also have a 20% chance to roll a 1 (based on a person with average luck). If you fail and throw again you now have a 1 in 5 chance but now a 40% chance to roll a 1. After 5 unlucky throws you throw a 6th time you now have a 1 in 5 chance but now 120% chance to roll a 1. How can you have over 100% , because you are unlucky the more unlucky you are the more rolls you need but your chances increase each time you fail. Trust me Las Vegas knows me well and knows that I know how to use this to my advantage to never loose at the casinos. (No I will not tell you how I do it, its just probabilities) Hope this explains it, I apologies for others following this post for going off track a bit. Just trying to explain that after 30 attempts something feels wrong. (600% chance of a kill).
 
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Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
I understand what he's trying to say...he knows it's 20% every battle but he's giving percentages based on a higher number over a longer time span. He figures in 100 battles he will win twenty and the more battles he fights without the win the greater his chances are to win one....
 

DeletedUser29509

If something has a 100% chance of happening, there's no way you could lose, because 100% means it can't miss, no way, no how.
Therefore, it's impossible to have OVER 100% chance of something happening.
 
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