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DeletedUser25795
Just make sure you don't announce it on the World Wide Web.....too late. 
What I find weird is they know me and I always win their money but they keep giving me a free room food/drink and a daily allowance to spend in their gift shop. All I pay for is the flights.
What I find weird is they know me and I always win their money but they keep giving me a free room food/drink and a daily allowance to spend in their gift shop. All I pay for is the flights.
DeletedUser26154
DeletedUser
NO! Every single time the chance is 20%. It doesn't matter how many times you try, you don't have a 40%, 120% or any other chance. EACH TIME IT IS STILL 20%. NEVER ANY MORE. This is a basic random chance fact that you are both getting completely wrong. It is a common fallacy, and it is wrong every time someone tries to pass it as fact. Your odds never go up, no matter how many times you try.
DeletedUser29699
What a great convo!! Haha. 20% means of x10.. u hit the jackpot twice. 200% of 10 means u it the jackpot x 20 of 10. Accumulative % Rolling a 5, on a 5 sided dye...w/ 5 rolls...that be...20% chance..
DeletedUser4441
edited out incorrect information (my apologies)
I was messing around in GE and with a 29% chance got 2 activation's out of 5 battles. The animation is pretty cool!!!
I was messing around in GE and with a 29% chance got 2 activation's out of 5 battles. The animation is pretty cool!!!
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DeletedUser
No. For the first 10 battles, you have a 20% chance each time. Then you're done until you collect from the Kraken again. Read what it says in the GB's description. And it only applies to the first wave of a two-wave battle. So much misinformation!edited out incorrect information (my apologies)
I was messing around in GE and with a 29% chance got 2 activation's out of 5 battles. The animation is pretty cool!!!
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DeletedUser29699
View attachment 8043 though this be nuggets 100% of the time
It works, to
edited out incorrect information (my apologies)
I was messing around in GE and with a 29% chance got 2 activation's out of 5 battles. The animation is pretty cool!!!
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DeletedUser
This is the core of your mistake. The probability never increases. Period.
DeletedUser29699
Wait I just tried the dye roll. I hit the 5, 20% of the time
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
Mr. Longshanks, I said I understood what Purps is saying...he is using the law of averages for a large amount of battles and using percentages to show that probability. He knows it's 20% per battle and isn't using a single event probability model for his outcome. This was the same conversation Ardak and SJS had about the baskets in the Fall event....wait, maybe I shouldn't have brought that up...
DeletedUser25795
OK now I have a headache
Is it 10 encounters that will activate per day or 10 attempts per day to get the encounter. I wish I could read things the same way others read things.At least you got it to work in GE so guess I was just unlucky in GE.
DeletedUser
No, he isn't. His first mention of 200% chance was after only 10 encounters. That is not a large amount of battles, nor is it even the "law of averages". It is simply a misunderstanding of random chance at its core. And it's not at all the same conversation Ardak and SJS had, not even close. The trouble with the view both of you have is that you both think the % changes if you have more chances. It doesn't. You ignore the fact that the balance to that 20% chance of killing a unit, is an 80% chance of not killing a unit. So, by his logic, after 10 battles he would have an 800% chance of not killing a unit. 800% vs 200% is still the same ratio and percentage breakdown as an individual encounter. 1 in 5 chance. Every single time. Unaffected by the previous or subsequent battles.
It is 10 battles, each having 20% chance of killing an enemy unit before the battle starts. Then you have to collect again from the Kraken before you get another 10 battle chances. And it is only in effect on the first wave of a two wave battle. This is clearly spelled out in the Kraken's description. It is not an unlimited number of chances until you have succeeded 10 times.OK now I have a headache
At least you got it to work in GE so guess I was just unlucky in GE.
DeletedUser26154
I'll be the judge of what conversations I have with my friends.
My first 11 fights have a 23% chance to Kraken bonus.
At the beginning of my first 11 fights, the RNG determines if one of the enemy units dies before the fight starts.
Right now, it's a 23% chance of working.
So that means during my first 11 fights, there is a 23% chance of one of the enemy units dying before the fight starts.
That's as Plain English as anyone can get.
If anyone can't understand that, it's none of our fault.
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
So you will be the judge of open conversations you have on the public forums, Ardak...? I don't think so...once written they are a part of the public domain and can and will be pertained to at the leisure of other forum posters...just as you have done with mine....
DeletedUser26154
If you want, I will.
And I love when it works.
The higher level your Kraken is, the more often it functions, and for a longer stretch of time.
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
Mr. Longshanks, please reread the feedback thread where SJS argues that if Ardak wished for 20 SoK's he need but only open 100 baskets, and while the number may be a little high or low, that would be about what he would get...the baskets and the battles are the same. 20% per shot. Now, for the sake of arguement, if Purps does 10 battles per day after he collects from his Krak, how many battles would he expect to have the Kraken function in ten days..?
DeletedUser26154
Darth Mole
Well-Known Member
If I don't have a Kraken does that mean I'm 200% likely to roll a 5?
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
I have a long history of debate with Mr. Longshanks, respect his opinion, and admire how he helps other players on this forum as I do, Ardak....I'll not have you dictate the course of this thread or our debate...whether I choose to debate The Gamblers Fallacy and how it pertains rightly or wrongly to the facets of this game is not up for your approval.
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