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Kraken working as intended

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DeletedUser

A) I'm not going to debate about whether this thread's argument is similar to another argument on another thread by two other players.
B) I'm done trying to correct the mistaken notion that random chance on one encounter is affected by random chance results on previous encounters. Vegas gets rich off people who believe that their chances of winning on the next roll are really high because they're "due".
 

DeletedUser13838

It's an assumption that each event is independent. If I was making a game I wouldn't want people to get either too lucky or too unlucky.
 

DeletedUser

It's an assumption that each event is independent. If I was making a game I wouldn't want people to get either too lucky or too unlucky.
OMG! So now you're trying to start some conspiracy rumor that Inno makes sure we don't win or lose too much? There's no reason for them to. Vegas doesn't do that (probably:p). Unlike the small sample size of each individual player, Inno has the benefit of a huge number of "rolls of the die". So, while individual players may benefit from or be the victim of the odds, Inno comes out about even on them. And before anybody jumps on that to mean that they have 1 million % chance or something ridiculous, I will say that even with the larger numbers, it is theoretically possible for everybody to get lucky all the time or for everybody to be eternally unlucky. And we are talking theoretically here, because each player's individual experience will vary on the curve between the two extremes.
 

DeletedUser28670

Ardak may be a powerful Meme Master with thousands of likes and posts.
6A399BBC-5A00-4610-95D8-5F206DAA5F7E.jpeg
But he does not control the forums.
 

DeletedUser13838

OMG! So now you're trying to start some conspiracy rumor that Inno makes sure we don't win or lose too much? There's no reason for them to. Vegas doesn't do that (probably:p). Unlike the small sample size of each individual player, Inno has the benefit of a huge number of "rolls of the die". So, while individual players may benefit from or be the victim of the odds, Inno comes out about even on them. And before anybody jumps on that to mean that they have 1 million % chance or something ridiculous, I will say that even with the larger numbers, it is theoretically possible for everybody to get lucky all the time or for everybody to be eternally unlucky. And we are talking theoretically here, because each player's individual experience will vary on the curve between the two extremes.
I said that's how I'd run the game (and I've said that many times here). I have no idea what Inno does. These forums are long on assumptions and short on facts. Reducing extremes in luck doesn't mean the stated probabilities are inaccurate. I fail to see how gambling has anything to do with this.
 

DeletedUser26965

I have no idea what Inno does. These forums are long on assumptions and short on facts.
I can quote Inno directly for you on this matter if you like. Now whether you choose to believe them or not is up to you but they said they don't mess with their numbers that way and they are just what they state they are. They said some gaming companies do manipulate in that they will actually give a higher chance than expected because some players just can't grasp the fact that a 97% win doesn't mean 100% so if they lose it's conspiracy time so better just to give them the darn thing instead of dealing with the nonsense.

There are two main problems I see with humans and statistical probability theory:

1. The Gambler's Fallacy which has already been discussed above

2. For a lot of people they just can't understand the Law of Large numbers, they simply can't grasp the concept, it's impossible for them to envision it, for others it comes rather easily to them for whatever reason, brains just wired differently or what have you. This is how we silly humans got magical concepts like "good luck" and "bad luck", those terms have no basis in reality but to those who can't grasp such statistical probability theory they make perfect sense, I mean why else haven't they got a gold relic or prize from an event or whatever, got to be bad luck right?
 

DeletedUser26154

There are two main problems I see with humans

1. Too many of them.
2. With Computers.

The Gambler's Fallacy

02ebded07860875e032b2e5b4847cc3e.png

Each roll of the dice, hand of cards, or throw of the gnome, is separate.
It's not all connected like a string of Christmas tree lights.
To be fair, it's a very hard concept to grasp until you are fully familiar with it.
It's one of the largest aspects of Gambling, and therefore named after it.

For a lot of people they just can't understand the Law of Large numbers

Very true again and it takes a long time to get a full number spread.

images.png

Once they are done being noobs, they will understand how it works.
 

DeletedUser26965

I understand what he's trying to say...he knows it's 20% every battle but he's giving percentages based on a higher number over a longer time span. He figures in 100 battles he will win twenty and the more battles he fights without the win the greater his chances are to win one....
Thank you, at last! Someone gets me :) :) :)
But that's not exactly right. Your chances will not increase beyond 20% no matter how many times you do it BUT the more times you do it the closer to 20% you get OVER THE LONG RUN. If you did 100 fights, assuming Kraken applies to all of them @20%, you may be close to 20 of them where it activates but you might not, it might be lower than 20 or perhaps even higher. If you do 1,000 fights(the long run) you may then be even closer to 20%(expected outcome, average) 200 activations but still may be more or less than that. The more you do the closer to 20% you'll get over the long run, the average, but no matter what it will always be 20% chance each time you do it.

Earlier you used a die as an example. So you roll a die and want it to land on 1. Each roll you have a 20% chance that it will land on 1. So roll the die and write down what it landed on. Keep doing that 100 times. Here, to make this easy use this https://www.random.org/integers/

Then copy/paste a string of 100 numbers into a spreadsheet, sort them and see how many 1's came up:


1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

Now try it again except this time only use 10 rolls, here's what I got;

no 1's :(

5
6
6
3
5
6
2
3
4
4

BUT WAIT:

3
1
3
1
3
6
5
1
2
1

But actually if I take the first 0% trial and add the second trial of 40% what's my average? Yep, 20%;)
 
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DeletedUser13838

I can quote Inno directly for you on this matter if you like. Now whether you choose to believe them or not is up to you but they said they don't mess with their numbers that way and they are just what they state they are. They said some gaming companies do manipulate in that they will actually give a higher chance than expected because some players just can't grasp the fact that a 97% win doesn't mean 100% so if they lose it's conspiracy time so better just to give them the darn thing instead of dealing with the nonsense.
I never said they messed with the numbers.
 

DeletedUser11463

I've gotten 3 hits on 8 or 9 tries on a Level 1 Kraken. My Kraken must be more powerful than your Kraken :p:p:p:p:p

So is there a hidden counter someplace that tells you when you reach the 10th shot and don't have more? Would be good to know when determining whether to level it or collect on the GB.
 

DeletedUser28670

I've gotten 3 hits on 8 or 9 tries on a Level 1 Kraken. My Kraken must be more powerful than your Kraken :p:p:p:p:p
Big Bendz's Kraken
th

Your kraken
th

:p:p:p:p:p:p:p:p
 
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DeletedUser26154

Ardak's city can have a nice chomp at his cherry blossom trees

I keep a bunch of Contemporary Era Cherry Blossom Trees for several reasons.

cherry.png

It allows players of lower eras in my guild to be able to affect a M/P.
People always have their M/P work and a chance at blue prints.
My Arctic Future and Ocean Future production buildings get their Motivations first.
Relatively cheap and easy to move and replace.

images (12).jpg

And I think they look lovely.
 
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