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Developers, please fix a randomizer for Carnival!

  • Thread starter DeletedUser34480
  • Start date

DeletedUser

6 pages later you've decided to do some considerations?
Well, let's see what Konrad has to say, before I go with my few cents. He claimed it's his area of expertise.
Well, I tried to ignore them, since they were so obviously irrelevant, but you keep bringing them up as if they are valid examples of random probability. Which they are not.
 

DeletedUser10720

It is OK, no one blames you.

Pretty sure Lord Muggle meant that when I read the words you type it feels like I'm having a stroke.

My best guess here is that you're saying the "infinite probability" of the draw system is too open ended. You would like to see a system where a 5% chance of success guarantees a reward at minimum 1x per 20 attempts.

You want to play with loaded dice and are upset that the rest of us understand probabilities and statistics rates and are using math to explain how this works.

I know that's like school and this is game. But... this game is math. All of it.

This is the first event in my over 3 years of play that I've completed and didn't get the final grand prize ( grand bridge stuck at L6) am I bothered by that? Sure. But I saw the odds when the event started and get how this game is developed. Had I actually /wanted/ to get the last upgrade. I could spend any of my 6k+ diamonds to earn it. But I'm saving those for the summer event .

Bothered or not, I'm not going to blame the event or RNG. I spun out on several risky attempts and could have managed my tickets better for better chances. I'm going to play the game and hope that the upgrade shows up in daily challenges or on the big wheel.

It's no question thaybthis event has had some of the worst odds of recent events. But not every event is the same and not every one is meant to shower you with amazing prizes. In fact, many are supposed to challenge you and push you to try for more.
 

DeletedUser34480

My best guess here is that you're saying the "infinite probability" of the draw system is too open ended.
Why guess, I've stated it quite few times.
As for name, it's been already called "pure random" here.

You would like to see a system where a 5% chance of success guarantees a reward at minimum 1x per 20 attempts.

Well... I've said quite different... not once, as well.
I said that 15-turning-30 percent is too much to treat it as a math random. If it swings beyond 100% then it is broken.
So, it is when you play 15% and not winning on 13 consecutive tries, or you play 30% and not winning on 7 tries.
 

DeletedUser30900

Well... I've said quite different... not once, as well.
I said that 15-turning-30 percent is too much to treat it as a math random. If it swings beyond 100% then it is broken.
So, it is when you play 15% and not winning on 13 consecutive tries, or you play 30% and not winning on 7 tries.
Please use your theory for the casino games. Then you gonna win a million dollars and say goodbye to this stupid game which actually follow the math.
 

DeletedUser13838

There are my examples.
Saying, we can't just blindly follow average.
Bus schedule, serving time, punch power, return on investment.
Do they provide you idea?
As someone who takes the bus every day, the idea that my bus isn't perfectly predictable is not lost on me but it's more appropriate to associate scheduling problems using queuing theory. I'm not sure what you mean by punch power and RoI has been the basis of my arguments in determining expectations.
 

DeletedUser34480

They are dependent on measurable variables. In the case of the bus schedule those would include traffic, speed of passenger loading/unloading at stops, traffic signals and mechanical issues.
Yet, all together they create a random value.
Take off accidents, and you get a random value within boundaries.
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
Yet, all together they create a random value.
Take off accidents, and you get a random value within boundaries.

Which is still not the same thing as the probability of rolling a 15 or less on a 100-sided die. The bus schedule example is a melange of variables, any one of which can alter the outcome. You have the same chance of rolling 15 or less no matter how many times you try: a fifteen percent chance. Doesn't matter what kind of table on which you're rolling or which hand in which you hold the die. And only in a sufficiently large sample size will the overall results even out to 15%. With small sample sizes, the results can vary wildly. I can roll twice and hit a 15 or less both times, or I can roll ten times (or twenty, or thirty) and roll above 15 every time. Neither means that my odds changed or swung in either direction, it simply means that I didn't roll enough times to smooth out the curve.

The above is a restatement of pretty much every post in this thread except yours.
 

Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
SloppyJoeSlayer actually created a FAQ for this very argument last year...it ain't the first time this horse has been flogged on these forums. Suffice it to say, True, you are in the wrong about this game and no amount of spouting will get INNO to change their games of chance. 100 hundred years + of playing experience has collectively tried to convince you otherwise but you remain steadfast. I admire the persistence but it's a losing battle.....
 

DeletedUser31498

But I have also seen, several times over, 8 or more tickets in a row win that game immidiately.

There is absolutely no way that is true. Even if you doubled the 15% game every single time (which is insanely improbable that you did that), the odds of winning 8x in a row is a 1 in 200. If you didn't double, then this almost certainly never happened more than once. Why make up such a useless lie?
 

DeletedUser30900

There is absolutely no way that is true. Even if you doubled the 15% game every single time (which is insanely improbable that you did that), the odds of winning 8x in a row is a 1 in 200. If you didn't double, then this almost certainly never happened more than once. Why make up such a useless lie?
well, I made a wrong conclusion, there are 3 people in this forum.
 

DeletedUser34548

I do know a lot about random and how it is (and can be) programmed.

That's a good example of a hollow brag.

I, too, know something about probability; and why random numbers cannot be generated by a standard microprocessor-based server without some form of cheating... which, at least in principle, either makes the sequence predictable or rests on an unreliable gimmick.

That aside... you do not believe you have been lucky. Fine. I believe nobody is lucky; but people have been lucky every day. Wildly improbable events happen constantly. Those who end up on top often like to think skill put them there; those on the bottom curse Fate. Sometimes, they're right.

Looked at squarely, it is impossible that I should win the state lottery. I can use any system, pump my wages into a stack of tickets. The odds are insurmountable. The same is true for each player, no exceptions. Yet somebody wins every month. The lottery is not rigged, the winners are not skilful, the gods did not spit on their ping-pong balls.

In a sufficiently big world, every possible improbable outcome eventuates... eventually. Congratulations!
 

DeletedUser34548

Generating pseudo-rands is hard work, most of it thrown away... and everyone carps about the result... everywhere from Angband to Tomorrowland.

Ping-pong balls are cheap but bulky; and interfacing the drum is easy but the swimsuit model must be fed and watered.

Anyway... study-up on "true" RNGs:

Software engineers without true random number generators often try to develop them by measuring physical events available to the software. An example is measuring the time between user keystrokes... [or] task-scheduling, network hits, disk-head seek times and other internal events. One Microsoft design... [snortchuckle].

The method is risky... because a clever, malicious attacker might be able to [control or spoof] the external events... allowing control of the "random values" used by the cryptography.
-- WP
 

DeletedUser34480

SloppyJoeSlayer actually created a FAQ for this very argument last year...it ain't the first time this horse has been flogged on these forums. Suffice it to say, True, you are in the wrong about this game and no amount of spouting will get INNO to change their games of chance. 100 hundred years + of playing experience has collectively tried to convince you otherwise but you remain steadfast. I admire the persistence but it's a losing battle.....
At least, thank you for not repeating example of throwing dice million times! :)
The thing is, the argument is beyond that.
It is not like a school test, like solve 100 of problems in 10 minute, 80% is pass.
 
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