Lucky for you I am a metrology process engineer by profession, where my job requires me to understand a thing or two about sample size, statistics and probability - so I have taken the time in past events to run the numbers where I've felt cheated by the Inno odds, but obviously I haven't been saving all that data somewhere so I could someday prove it.
If you were "a professional", then you would have saved the numbers you "ran". Otherwise, why run them? We weren't born yesterday, my friend,
Often times in these events, I am saving all of my "event tokens" (ie. lanterns, florins) for use on one day and one special, usually towards the end of the event, so the sample size is usually meaningful.
Ummm...no, your sample size is not meaningful. Even if you saved all your event currency for the last day, that is a drop in the proverbial bucket to the thousands and thousands of samples from all the players participating to some degree in the event.
5500 lanterns to only win 2 specials, only making jumps thats had 10% chance or greater and cost between 80 and 113 (or about about 57 total jumps - as big as a sample size you are going to get from the average player),
And there are hundreds of thousands of players, so the "sample size" from one player is basically meaningless. Unless you actually don't understand probability at all, which is more likely.
Would those odds go up with a bigger sample size? Maybe, we don't really know, we are just taking Innos word for it as nobody can feasibly spend enough diamonds or pool enough data to make a conclusion otherwise- AND INNO KNOWS THIS. If you are trusting enough to take their word for it (when they make their revenue from diamond sales) then you sir are either (1) a fool or (2) working for Inno.
So start a city on every one of the 27 U.S. worlds and get a bigger sample size. Although that would still be 27 out of thousands, so...
Until you have PROOF that the RNG is not what Inno says, I would suggest that you stop making unfounded accusations of dishonesty. Technically, what you're engaging in is slander...or libel, I never could keep them straight.
then you sir are either (1) a fool or (2) working for Inno.
Okay, I'm pretty sure this would be slander...if anyone cared about your opinion. LOL
I treat plundering hoodies as I would aiding friends and guildies. Plundering used to be a profitable venture, now a waste of time, as well as the FPs spent for anyone leveling those GBs that I mentioned before. Sure there are other aspects to the game, and I could go on about how those are flawed too. The fact that they completely ruined plundering and made 4 larger GBs worthless with one 3x3 GB just seems like a big deal to me. I'm sure most people are going to disagree because they enjoy the protection of the Galata Tower, not needing to collect on time, or are sick of getting plundered, don't have the plunder boosting GBs (they are not the most common), or are too weak to plunder others (yes I'm talking about at you players who advance frivolously through the ages and somehow show up in my future era hood with less than 1M points - you brought this upon yourself)...
There is so much wrong with this portion that I will just address what does not apply to me.
A) I don't disagree because I "enjoy the protection" of the Galata Tower. I have not yet built it in any of my 27 cities.
B) I don't care about collecting on time because plundering of my cities is less than meaningless to me.
C) I am not "sick of being plundered", I am beyond even caring if I get plundered.
D) No, I don't have the "plunder boosting GBs" on most worlds, but that is irrelevant to me. I would feel the same whether I had them or not.
E) I am definitely not too weak to plunder others...just too lazy most of the time.
F) If I showed up in your FE hood, you had better have a Galata Tower. Bwahahahaha!