• We are looking for you!
    Always wanted to join our Supporting Team? We are looking for enthusiastic moderators!
    Take a look at our recruitement page for more information and how you can apply:
    Apply

Spring Event - The Cherry Blossom Festival Feedback

DeletedUser26154

This is me opening Gold Chests #5 - #8.

Gold chest 5.png gold chest 6.png

Yes, two One-Story Pagodas in a row.
At least it was not Blueprints.

chest 7.png gold chest 8.png

This is where I'm at now with my winnings.

winnings 1.png winnings 2.png

2 of the 5 Store Buildings were winnings from this event as well.

winnings 3.png winnings 4.png winnings 6 2 of the 5 from event.png

Gold chests.

Only go for the Gold chests.

You have the best chance of winning something durable and useful.
 

bomber9530

Active Member
This is me opening Gold Chests #5 - #8.

View attachment 3176 View attachment 3177

Yes, two One-Story Pagodas in a row.
At least it was not Blueprints.

View attachment 3178 View attachment 3179

This is where I'm at now with my winnings.

View attachment 3180 View attachment 3181

2 of the 5 Store Buildings were winnings from this event as well.

View attachment 3182 View attachment 3183 View attachment 3185

Gold chests.

Only go for the Gold chests.

You have the best chance of winning something durable and useful.

I too hit multiple One-Story Pagodas back to back before getting the Nishikigoi Pond. Also hit BPs (as if I don't already have enough).
 

DeletedUser28898

I absolutely love this event. The items are beautiful and really add to decorating the kingdom. THANK YOU!!
Would like to see a few coin purchasable items added to the game which would also be for decorating...Trees such as apple, orange or pear (2x2 size)
 

DeletedUser20367

A note about the Pagoda, on the Beta forum the question was asked if there would be two, three etc story Pagodas and the official response was that there may (or may not) be in future years. Could be the Pagoda will be like the Confectionary or Graveyard.

I've had a fairly good balance of prizes so far. The LONG drought on M world means that I'm probably under % for the daily prize but I've also gotten 3 or 4 in the first 2-3 picks so that might balance it out. Haven't kept close track but I have gotten a good number of BPs and NOT on the worlds where I might actually be able to use them. On two worlds I've aged up and since the neighborhoods were nerfed I've gotten less higher Age BPs than I used to so can still use current Age BPs on those two worlds. Ah well...
 

DeletedUser20367

Does anyone know if 'reaching the new continent map' will fulfill a scout quest? I'm guessing no but it never hurts to ask.
 

DeletedUser11463

Trees this time around are bogus.

Last event we had with trees, the apple event, we would get average 5 to 10 apples per tree and once in a while it was 20 apples!

Now it is more like 1 to 3 lanterns with 5 lanterns once in a while. Went downhill - just like from Soccer Event to Mask Event.

And the apple tree occasionally gave 50 apples too. Only got that twice. But I think the goods are less expensive this time around. And the whole 5 blgds working together sounds pretty cool actually.
 

DeletedUser26154

YOu get more trees by completing quests and opening chests.

The trees are pennies compared to the winnings of a Gold Chest.
Trees are just little bonus extras.
The Gold Chests are proven to give better wins, but they cost more.

HoF.png

But how you win your HoF, is totally up to you.
 

DeletedUser14197

Awesome. It's not often you see someone who doesn't want an SoK. I salute you! I think I understand though. I've got four pieces of the puzzle and I suspect that getting the fifth one will be damn tough, sure wish it was the second Grand Prize.

I think I made a bad mistake. I should have not tried for the SoK Daily Prize, I should have waited for the Pond, my missing piece, to come around as the daily Prize. As in so many other cases in FoE, patience is a virtue...

I had hoped the Grand Prize cost would not escalate so that folk would have a reasonable chance at getting more then 2.

First cut at this : 50 to start, around 200 Lanterns from Town Hall, 950 from Quests, and a guess of 2 Lanterns per tree or 90 Lanterns. So call it 1,300. 11 Chests, or 2 Grand Prizes not including hitting 200 Lanterns in your chests. Hitting 4(?) x 200s will get you a third Grand Prize. Wonder what it will be? Pond I hope.

Good luck to all.

I have not used any lanterns yet. In H world I have 737 lanterns and am on the extra quests, the residential one. If I complete the rest that will be an additional 112 lanterns for a grand total of 849 lanterns. This includes all the trees I collected from. I do not know where you got 950 from quests, but it isn't happening for me. My 839 includes the trees and town hall so far and the 50 I got to start. There should be 17 more town halls, so that would be 170 more for a total of 1009. I don't suppose it matters as it really just matters if you are lucky when you open up chests or not lucky.

I just checked my A world. I just completed the first of the bonus quests and if I add the lanterns from the next 2 quests to catch up to H world I will also have 737 lanterns there as well.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

DeletedUser27023

This isn't rocket science. The probability of the daily special in the three chests is 7%, 13%, and 25%. The chests cost 40 lanterns, 70 lanterns, and 120 lanterns. The costs in lanterns to get 1% chance are 40/7 = 5.7, 70/13 = 5.4, and 120/25 = 4.8. Gold is best. (It's actually even better than those numbers indicate, because buying 3 bronze chests only gives you a 19.6% chance, not a 21% chance, but I'm not showing the rocket science calculation for that). It also costs fewer lanterns per cherry blossom: 40/5 = 8 for bronze, 70/10 = 7 for silver, 120/20 = 6 for gold. Be smart and only buy gold.

Addendum: With your 600 lanterns, your odds of winning the daily special by buying gold chests are
first chest: .25 (1 - .75)
first two chests: .4375 (1 - .75^2)
first three chests: .5781 (1 - .75^3)
first four chests: .6836 (1 - .75^4)
five chests: .7627 (1 -.75^5)

Hmm ... I just read Algona's comment, and he's right that the chances of winning lanterns changes the odds ... but I think they even more strongly favor gold: A 12% of winning 200 lanterns is certainly better than a 15% chance of winning only 120 or a 20% chance of winning only 70.

Also, his math is off. It should be

Large Chest 76% (1-.75^5)
Medium Chest 68% (1-.87^8) (Actually, 8 mediums and 1 small = 69%)
Small Chest 66% (1-.93^15)

Thank you so much for make no those calculations. I am not smart.
 

Algona

Well-Known Member
I have not used any lanterns yet. In H world I have 737 lanterns and am on the extra quests, the residential one. If I complete the rest that will be an additional 112 lanterns for a grand total of 849 lanterns. This includes all the trees I collected from. I do not know where you got 950 from quests, but it isn't happening for me. My 839 includes the trees and town hall so far and the 50 I got to start. There should be 17 more town halls, so that would be 170 more for a total of 1009. I don't suppose it matters as it really just matters if you are lucky when you open up chests or not lucky.

I think the difference is in your estimate of how much you can get from the Daily Quests. I believe the Daily Quests escalate the same way the first quest line did, and there are 20 available.

My total without Lantern Chests is about the same as yours, I'm at 811 Lanterns. I suppose my tree drops are the difference.
 
Last edited:

DeletedUser26154

So far I've earned 1040 Lanterns.
960 on the 8 Gold Chests.
80 still in play.
I finished this bonus quest and am on the timer for tomorrow's.

a7817a29d1a888ad0f561ed8166c36fa.png

All I need is the Emperor's Entrance to complete my 5-piece set.
 

DeletedUser5111

So far I've earned 1040 Lanterns.
960 on the 8 Gold Chests.
80 still in play.
I finished this bonus quest and am on the timer for tomorrow's.

View attachment 3192

All I need is the Emperor's Entrance to complete my 5-piece set.

I think with the amount of times you opened chests, you are close to the Entrance in the grand prize.
 

DeletedUser28015

I think somewhere on beta the players figured out the bronze gives a slight advantage between the higher chance at lanterns and you get an extra tree per chest open.

Hmm ... this is an important point that quite invalidates the previous calculations. The average number of lanterns from trees should be directly subtracted from the cost of each chest, which benefits bronze more than silver or gold -- unless the number of tree lanterns depends on the cost of the chest, which it may. Also, the probability of winning the daily are better than .07, .13, and .25, because those numbers should only be applied to the outcomes that don't include winning lanterns. These are

bronze: .07 / (1 - .20) = .0875
silver: .13 / (1 - .15) = .1529
gold: .25 / (1 - .12) = .2841

But you also have to subtract from the cost of the chest the average number of extra lanterns that you win. So assuming that you get on average 3 lanterns per tree, the costs of the chests are

bronze: 40 - 3 - (70 - 40) * .20 = 31
silver: 70 - 3 - (120 - 70) * .15 = 59.5
gold: 120 - 3 - (200 - 120) * .12 = 107.4

Hmm ... that's not right because each time you win lanterns, you get another chance to win lanterns, so it's actually .20**1 + .20**2 + .20**3 ... which I believe is .20/(1 - .20), so the correct costs are

bronze: 40 - 3 - (70 - 40) * .20/(1 - .20) = 29.5
silver: 70 - 3 - (120 - 70) * .15/(1 - .15) = 58.1
gold: 120 - 3 - (200 - 120) * .12/(1 - .12) = 106.1

So starting with 600 lanterns the probability of winning the daily are approximately (not quite accurate because you can't buy a fraction of a chest):

bronze: 1- (1 - .07 / (1 - .20))**(600/(40 - 3 - (70 - 40) * .20/(1 - .20)) = .845
silver: 1- (1 - .13 / (1 - .15))**(600/(70 - 3 - (120 - 70) * .15/(1 - .15))) = .819
gold: 1- (1 - .25 / (1 - .12))**(600/(120 - 3 - (200 - 120) * .12/(1 - .12))) = .849

If I got this right (what are the odds of that?), gold is still best, but narrowly.
 

DeletedUser26120

I didn't realize the auxiliary quest line gave so many lanterns. Makes sense as to why they reduced the counts from trees.
 

DeletedUser14197

I think the difference is in your estimate of how much you can get from the Daily Quests. I believe the Daily Quests escalate the same way the first quest line did, and there are 20 available.

My total without Lantern Chests is about the same as yours, I'm at 811 Lanterns. I suppose my tree drops are the difference.

I do not understand what you are saying. The daily quests is not an estimate. One can add up the numbers. It is the same for everyone. The estimate is only in how many you get from around your town and the estimate given for that is 90. I guess I could go to wiki and add up all the lantern rewards for quests and see how many one can gets by completing all the quests. It should be the same for everyone. Other numbers that are not changeable are 50 start up, and 200 town hall. However, what you get from the trees is different for different players, as is what you get from opening the chests. I went to wiki and added up the lanterns for doing quests and if I typed the numbers in correctly and didn't miss any what I got was 798 total for doing all the quests: 539 for the main quest line and 239 for the bonus quests. I could have made a mistake, but it seems at least more likely than the 950. I went ahead and added all I got already together in my main city from the quests, town hall and startup and if I did it correctly, I have already gotten 95 from around town. That seems high. But, it is definitely too early for me and I need something to eat and think I have had enough of frying my brain over something that really doesn't matter.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Top