Algorithm on Crow’s Nest changed

[Portia the Benevolent]

I don’t want to hear that i’m wrong because I’m not wrong. For nine months I have manually collected on my crows nest and it delivered the extra Forge points 40% of the time. It was very much on point. When you did the big upgrade a month or so ago that algorithm totally changed and consistently I get four or five eights in a row before I get a 20. It has been that way ever since — there is a definite decline in the extra rewards. This really doesn’t help the game because I love the crows nest and it doesn’t motivate me to even want to play when this keeps happening. I was in the middle of almost finishing a second crows nest but what’s the point if you change the algorithm and made it worse? I don’t understand why you do this, and of course, you are not going to change, so I don’t know why I’m even saying this. I am so so disappointed. The CN has gone from my favorite event building to probably my least favorite.

 

[Pickleweasel]

Sorry to hear about your luck; I've gotten the forge point bonus 3 times this week already, when I'd prefer diamonds or medals /shrug.

 

[Johnny B. Goode]

I don’t want to hear that i’m wrong because I’m not wrong.

If you don't want to hear that you're wrong, share the numbers for the last 10 months worth of Crow's Nest collections. Both the nine months when you claim it consistently hit 40% (2 out of every single 5 day period? Really? Never more? Never less?), and the last month when you are claiming that it is only hitting 16-20%. If you didn't record the numbers, all you have is your memory of the last 10 months, which is probably biased by your preconceived notion that "the algorithm changed".

Pending the sharing of those hard numbers, all you have is a long streak of relatively moderate luck, followed by a relatively short streak of slightly bad luck. Bottom line is that you are wrong about the algorithm changing. All that changed was your luck, and that will even out over time. But by all means sell your Crow's Nest and never build another one. That'll show them!

 

[icarusethan]

you are wrong

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

Still working for me. I have to agree that you are simply misremembering (although it is possible that you are simply having a run of bad luck). Given that your statements are a 'month or so ago' and "I get four our five eights in a row" pretty much scream you are working from memory and not recording the data to actually be able to show an issue.

 

[WearyBrawler2992]

My historic distribution, 5 current CNs and dating back to my first when they came out in 2019, 2701 total collections:
7% diamonds
39% FP
40% goods
14% medals

Over the last 30 days, 145 collections (missed a day to reset collection time):
10% diamonds
38% FP
37% goods
15% medals

Not a significant variance, especially given the small sample size for recent collections.

So working for me also.

I was disappointed. I thought this was going to say they changed the weird goods distribution CN has always had.

 

[My Push Account]

With 30 days of data, you would need the 12FP to hit four times or less before there would be any reasonable chance of it not working as advertised. The data you describe would have generated six or seven hits, which is within the expected distribution of outcomes. In fact, if everyone in your hood ran the same experiment, two of you would be expected to only get six hits. There is nothing provided that would suggest the building algorithm is broken.

 

[CaptainKirk1234]

I don’t want to hear that i’m wrong because I’m not wrong. For nine months I have manually collected on my crows nest and it delivered the extra Forge points 40% of the time. It was very much on point. When you did the big upgrade a month or so ago that algorithm totally changed and consistently I get four or five eights in a row before I get a 20. It has been that way ever since — there is a definite decline in the extra rewards. This really doesn’t help the game because I love the crows nest and it doesn’t motivate me to even want to play when this keeps happening. I was in the middle of almost finishing a second crows nest but what’s the point if you change the algorithm and made it worse? I don’t understand why you do this, and of course, you are not going to change, so I don’t know why I’m even saying this. I am so so disappointed. The CN has gone from my favorite event building to probably my least favorite. ☹

For 1 whole GBG season I was really angry cause I was getting only like 20fp a day regardless of doing 30+ fights (more now) and then it was better again, IDK if it was luck or programming, but if no one else seems to have your problem, it is probably exactly that, "your Problem."

 

[Portia the Benevolent]

My historic distribution, 5 current CNs and dating back to my first when they came out in 2019, 2701 total collections:
7% diamonds
39% FP
40% goods
14% medals

Over the last 30 days, 145 collections (missed a day to reset collection time):
10% diamonds
38% FP
37% goods
15% medals

Not a significant variance, especially given the small sample size for recent collections.

So working for me also.

I was disappointed. I thought this was going to say they changed the weird goods distribution CN has always had.

This is good to know. Maybe just a very weird streak of bad luck. My second is up. So this gives me encouragement. Thx.

 

[Portia the Benevolent]

For 1 whole GBG season I was really angry cause I was getting only like 20fp a day regardless of doing 30+ fights (more now) and then it was better again, IDK if it was luck or programming, but if no one else seems to have your problem, it is probably exactly that, "your Problem."

I truly hope so. Thx!

 

[Octavia Warrior Queen]

If you don't want to hear that you're wrong, share the numbers for the last 10 months worth of Crow's Nest collections. Both the nine months when you claim it consistently hit 40% (2 out of every single 5 day period? Really? Never more? Never less?), and the last month when you are claiming that it is only hitting 16-20%. If you didn't record the numbers, all you have is your memory of the last 10 months, which is probably biased by your preconceived notion that "the algorithm changed".

Pending the sharing of those hard numbers, all you have is a long streak of relatively moderate luck, followed by a relatively short streak of slightly bad luck. Bottom line is that you are wrong about the algorithm changing. All that changed was your luck, and that will even out over time. But by all means sell your Crow's Nest and never build another one. That'll show them!

You can't say that he is wrong even if he doesn't have the numerical data to prove it. Do you have the proof that the algorithm hasn't changed? I bet not. There have been a lot of changes lately so who is to say that it has not been one of them?

 

[Johnny B. Goode]

You can't say that he is wrong even if he doesn't have the numerical data to prove it. Do you have the proof that the algorithm hasn't changed? I bet not. There have been a lot of changes lately so who is to say that it has not been one of them?

When someone makes an unfounded claim, it is up to them to prove it. It is not up to others to disprove it. And especially when the claim is accompanied by random and conflicting data.

 

[Portia the Benevolent]

Johnny I made a point of manually collecting for 9 months. I saw what I saw. I made a point of eyeballing everyday. Truth be told it was around 50%. I don’t have dementia and wouldn’t forget to notice if i went 4x in a row with just 8. In fact that never happened. I certainly would notice if that happened week after week. So suddenly the same manual collection is totally out of whack. I’m not blind and I’m not misremembering. Not everything has to be written down. That said it could be an awful string of bad luck. It’s improved a bit but not by much. Thank you.

 

[Portia the Benevolent]

You can't say that he is wrong even if he doesn't have the numerical data to prove it. Do you have the proof that the algorithm hasn't changed? I bet not. There have been a lot of changes lately so who is to say that it has not been one of them?

Thank you Octavia. Yes, algorithms are tweaked all the time. That being said if no one else is having the issue it may be both my bad luck and good luck. Good luck that I got about 50% for 9 months and now bad luck because I’m at about 25%. However, it did start right after that huge update. Right after. So who knows. ‍

 

[RazorbackPirate]

Thank you Octavia. Yes, algorithms are tweaked all the time. That being said if no one else is having the issue it may be both my bad luck and good luck. Good luck that I got about 50% for 9 months and now bad luck because I’m at about 25%. However, it did start right after that huge update. Right after. So who knows. ‍♀

Write down your results for the next 9 months. It would be nice to know what the new %s are.

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

Dementia isn't the problem. Memory is inherently unreliable for various reasons. The chief one in this case is you'd remember a bad run of luck or a good run of luck but that isn't how you verify a percentage or claim that something in the code has been changed because that means you mostly didn't pay attention to most results on a long term basis. That is simply the nature of people.

And like the previous poster suggested write them down for the next 9 months. Let's see what percentage you end up with but I doubt it will be 50% which seems a tad high for a 40% item in the Crow's Nest.

 

[Johnny B. Goode]

Thank you Octavia. Yes, algorithms are tweaked all the time. That being said if no one else is having the issue it may be both my bad luck and good luck. Good luck that I got about 50% for 9 months and now bad luck because I’m at about 25%. However, it did start right after that huge update. Right after. So who knows. ‍♀

So it was 40% and 16-20%, and now it's 50% and 25%? You can't remember what percentages you're claiming on posts that are merely a couple of weeks apart (and right there for you to check), but you expect us to believe that you can remember how often you got rewards on one building for 10 months?

Here's a couple of questions in my mind. Had you just built the Crow's Nest at the beginning of the 9 months of good results? If not, what prompted you to all of a sudden start manually collecting? Did you manually collect all your buildings, or just this one? If this is the only one, why is that? If there are others you collected manually, what was the pattern with them?

I ask these questions because your claims seem to be just another case of good luck/bad luck combined with a suspicious mind. Or possibly another case of someone whose game isn't going as well as they think it should and instead of getting better they decide to blame Inno's alleged nefarious hidden actions.

 

[Agent327]

When you did the big upgrade a month or so ago that algorithm totally changed and consistently I get four or five eights in a row before I get a 20.

I don’t have dementia and wouldn’t forget to notice if i went 4x in a row with just 8. In fact that never happened.

I guess we found the problem.