Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
Gentlemen, please...can we refrain from political and theological arguments and focus on the subject at hand...?
-
We are looking for you! Always wanted to join our Supporting Team? We are looking for enthusiastic moderators!
Take a look at our recruitement page for more information and how you can apply:
Blueprints Aren't Random
- Thread starter ndstate
- Start date
Volodya
Well-Known Member
Where has Inno stated that bp distribution is random? I don't recall seeing that.
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
In response Indisposed, I am not a fan of the 'random' aspect of the game because I don't believe it exists...far easier to create a random appearance through algorithm than a random number generator and much easier to control if desired results need to be tweaked in the future. That is a good business decision. INNO needs control of all facets of the game to be able to determine growth on a massive scale across a huge amount of servers and percentages, not randomness, will achieve that for them...
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
Voloyda, Neither have I...In fact when I first started, I asked if goods and bps were random as it seemed highly unlikely that it was random or based on percentages...I got no answer from staff or from the vets who were dominant on this forum at that time...
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
I said that. You said it was an assumption. I said it was a direct rejection. No assumption necessary.
It is not a belief structure. It is the exact absence of belief.
No, I wasn't.
That is ridiculous since one could easily be proven. The source code isn't ethereal or fantastical.
DeletedUser14354
My point was that an argument that says "Inno would benefit from a lack of randomness, and therefore I choose to believe they tweaked the code" is not a logical argument. Its a faith-based one. It is therefore no different than arguing that god intervenes to dictate BP distribution. If you want to leave god (or the lack of one out of it), its no different than arguing that aliens dictate the BP distribution, or the position of Venus.
Could Inno be tweaking it? Yes. Could it be a function of randomness? Yes.
Does the fact that people: (1) are also currently arguing about the randomness of present distribution in the winter event, (2) previously argued about the randomness of relics in GE, (3) previously argued about the randomness of the wheel in the easter event (was it easter?), etc. suggest that people don't really understand probability? Absolutely.
DeletedUser14354
And you can have that opinion. However, its not based on any objective evidence. Its a faith based belief. I would agree that if you were going to reject randomness, your belief is logical given Inno's incentives.
However, my point has always been that the OP noting that he has 17 of one BP and only 11 of another is NOT PROOF that it isn't random. That could easily be explained by random chance.
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
If someone brings up God to argue against me, I'm not going to let that slide.
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
No one ever claimed that his example was proof alone. No one said that just one example proves anything. Also, no one said they were 100% certain that Inno is doing this. However, you appear to be 100% certain that Inno is not. That to me is just as faith-based since you have no proof. Agree to disagree and move on. I have.
DeletedUser31498
See this is where I just REALLY hate to bring it up again, but you REALLY don't understand statistics. It is exactly the kind of thing we can prove. Remember how Cosmic Raven had a huge sample of RQs and found the odds of goods, FPs, medals, etc.
Statistics!!
Kinda unlike how you conspiracy theorists throw around a sample of 200 and odds of 1/9, cosmic was smart and got a sample of thousands and thousands, which given odds are 1/14, was quite important.
Sal, can you see the exact number of BPs you have on Arc? Or 99+ is the most detail it'll give?
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
You can't prove it because don't have the source code. You can only prove that it is possible. I never said it wasn't.
This right here:
...is an admittance that I could also be right. You don't think so, and that's fair. But you can't prove that I'm not right if you don't have the source code. My understanding of statistics (or lack thereof in your opinion) has nothing to do with whether or not Inno could have a custom algorithm in play that creates a slight rarity for one blueprint, which would encourage diamond usage. I believe it to be relevant that there is a monetary motive to doing so and you do not. You believe in a 100% altruistic course of development to a game that is inherently designed to generate diamond sales.
If you hover over a slot, it will show you the exact number.
DeletedUser
Opinion is the key word here, because there is absolutely no factual evidence for your view, only your cynicism interpreting small sample data.
DeletedUser32389
Again, just playing devils advocate, this is where the language gets tricky. There is a chance that you'll get any print, that's "random" the chances are not always weighed the same though (maybe is the point)... That doesn't mean they're lying, it means saying
"...and you'll receive a blueprint based on the weighted odds of our selection algorithm" doesn't speak to players in a way they understand. "Trade in two prints for a random print" isn't an implicit guarantee on their part that they don't have a finger on the scale.
An open question to all on the thread: What would you do if you find out they're not random? You gonna boycott 'till they change it?
Last edited by a moderator:
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
To my knowledge, INNO has never stated in their pages that the bps or goods are random. Purely from a business point of view, randomness does not favor them. If we note disparities in this random factor and INNO provides no counter to our queries, why shouldn't we believe they have based these items on a percentage basis rather than true randomness...? I have no issues with the way they have set it up, I like the game and its challenges and don't believe its a conspiracy against players but a business move, period. Another slightly off topic question...Do you believe the DC's are randomly generated, generated en masse, or tailored specifically for your play style (or against it) and your gaming history...?
DeletedUser31498
Sal that's great. So please share your Arc numbers! You have a data point that might actually be helpful. And to be clear, I do think you MAY be right. But the method of cherry picking GBs with a tiny disparity many ppl here take as proof that each isn't 1/9. And I'm just saying give me data!!
DeletedUser32389
If they’re messing with the odds there are two ways I see to do it
1) Make one print more rare in the world. This is unlikely and easy to prove.
2) Make the last few prints harder to get once you have most of the set. This is easy to achieve in programming, but the print distribution would still be statically even in the world. This is more likely in the event that it’s weighted, and I’m not sure how you would figure it out data-science wise.
1) Make one print more rare in the world. This is unlikely and easy to prove.
2) Make the last few prints harder to get once you have most of the set. This is easy to achieve in programming, but the print distribution would still be statically even in the world. This is more likely in the event that it’s weighted, and I’m not sure how you would figure it out data-science wise.
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
My data on my Arc is corrupted because I traded so many of my dupes...but I do remember having 30+ in three 20+ in 3 spots high teens in 2 spots and ZERO in the last spot before beginning my trade. What amazes me is the lack of that ONE bp slot getting three dupes in one shot when I received, say sixteen, from an outside arc leveling. Other slots received 3 and 4 bps at a go, why not that 'rare' bp slot...? Just the odds...? Randomness at its finest...? Possibly. But every GB I have..? And I'm not the only one. Again, I have yet to see an honest representation of a GB with large numbers of prints being relatively equal..also a random possibility. Considering the number of GBs available wouldn't many advanced players have at least one in that category..?
DeletedUser31498
How many levels had you unlocked at that point?
And I'm sure every advanced player has lots of GBs where they're mostly equal...but why would they post that in the forum?
"LOOK! I have 80 BPs of all 9 Zeus print!!!" isn't really why people come here...it's only to complain and yell conspiracy.
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
Who said anything about a conspiracy...? I said this is a business decision and my logic behind it is sound...Being able to dictate the growth of the game based on randomness is faulty...basing it on percentages that look random is a far better idea for a gaming company...or do you think they create these mechanics, look at each other, nod and say "Let er' rip Heinrich..!"
DeletedUser14354
You choosing to believe that the BP distribution is not random is an argument from a position of faith. It is the functional equivalent of arguing that god was the deciding factor. The fact that you have no problem accepting one faith-based explanation, while simultaneously dismissing an equally valid faith-based explanation would be the very definition or irony.....or it would have been, had you not then confused the notion of atheism with agnosticism.
So we can add theology and logic to the fields of discipline you also clearly don't understand.