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BP set missing one pane after 8 collections of BP ...

LaGoulue

Member
Am I the only one to experience this frustration? It makes one feel that there's an algorithm controlling the randomness (?) and deliberately passing over the empty pane to force spending diamonds. I'm ready to buy more diamonds to see if this changes the situation.
 

RazorbackPirate

Well-Known Member
No, you are not the only one. However, your reasoning why is flawed, diamond purchases or spending has nothing to do with it.

As the BPs you get are random, once you're down to a single spot to fill, you have a 1 in 9 chance of getting it. Even if you get 5 BPs at once, each BP gives the same chance of being the one you need, 1 in 9.
 

Sheriff Of Rottingham

Active Member
Instead of asking if the odds shift for specific tiles over time, I think a better question would be...for any given GB, are the odds of receiving each of the 9 tiles equal (i.e. all 1:9 chance as opposed to some at 2:3, 1:6, 1:18)? I believe they are all 1:9, but there is no way to be sure without official comment.
 

RazorbackPirate

Well-Known Member
The odds are 1:9 for each BP, but when your grid is empty, you have a 100% chance of getting a needed BP. As tiles fill, the odds of getting a needed blueprint decrease.
 
No, you are not the only one. However, your reasoning why is flawed, diamond purchases or spending has nothing to do with it.

As the BPs you get are random, once you're down to a single spot to fill, you have a 1 in 9 chance of getting it. Even if you get 5 BPs at once, each BP gives the same chance of being the one you need, 1 in 9.

It's nice to see someone who understands odds.
 

Ironrooster

Well-Known Member
Yes it can be frustrating getting that last one or two, especially when you get 4 or 5 of one you already have.

What really gets me is getting a full set in 9 tries for a GB I don't want.:D

Sometimes you just have to laugh at the awful cantankerousness of it all and move on.:p
 

Ebeondi Asi

Well-Known Member
One chance in nine is 11% So eight time out of nine,.. You will not get that last one you wanted. From my experience, with having 200 300 blueprints, and needing one.. over and ove needing one.. (Since the odds are not affected that you actually already have those hundreds of others.. It may seem frustrating,
 
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LaGoulue

Member
Whew, thanks so much for the stimulating discussion! I started off with the notion that randomness means every pane has an equal chance of receiving a BP. I have 2 GB in this situation and will anxiously await the next collection!
 

wolfhoundtoo

Well-Known Member
Every pane DOES have an equal chance of receiving 1 BP. But when you are focusing on a specific pane then there are 8 other panes competing with that one pane you want (as mentioned above).

think of it like a 9 side dice. if you want to roll a 1 there are 8 other numbers that you can get instead.
 
What I can't stand is when you spend well over 1.9 for a spot on a GB with 5-6 BPs in hope of getting the last print needed, and not getting that last one, then going and aiding your neighbors and getting that single BP on your first aid, I just find it annoying.
 
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BrougatonVashon

New Member
I want to say when I was chasing CF prints and ran out it took 25 prints to get the missing one so I could continue. After that aberration, the low total pane seemed to populate pretty quickly though.
 

67Sage101

Active Member
I believe they do have an algorithm that activates when slots are filled >5. I think if you do 2 for 1 trades to get all slots down to less than 5 then the algorithm allows that last annoying slot to fill. I've run probability calculations and can say almost without a doubt that when a slot fill is >5, the odds of that last 200 diamond slot to fill is essentially 0. I once had 20 BP's in one slot and 12 to 15 in the others and that one slot was STILL EMPTY. Impossible to get 100 prints and never have that one slot fill without a biasing algorithm. That said, I think it relaxes when all slots are filled but again in my analysis, your GB will always have one problem slot. It's different on each GB, but after 60 levels you know which slot is the problem child.
 

67Sage101

Active Member
Every pane DOES have an equal chance of receiving 1 BP. But when you are focusing on a specific pane then there are 8 other panes competing with that one pane you want (as mentioned above).

think of it like a 9 side dice. if you want to roll a 1 there are 8 other numbers that you can get instead.

Yes an 11% chance. So 11% of your BP's should be in any given slot. It's statistically impossible to have 100 BP's and not have one slot get at least one print. Even the devs will tell you there is no bias, but here is case in point. A coin has a 50/50 chance of heads. There is NO WAY IN HE** you can flip 100 times and get 100 heads an 0 tails. The more you flip, the more the 50% probability reveals itself. So when I get 100 prints and 1 slot does not fill, that is violating the mathematical probability that each slot should have 11 +/- . If you roll a die, there is no way to roll 100 times and not get 1.
 

67Sage101

Active Member
Just did 50 rolls of a die. so 1/6 = 16% chance of getting any #. The more times you roll the closer each slot will get to an overall # 16%
Results:

1 -12 - 24%
2 -5 - 10%
3 -8 - 16%
4 -5 - 10%
5 -9 - 18%
6 -11 - 22%

Yes they are all different percentages. But in Statistics you learn that the more attempts you make the more all slots will even out to 16% fill. So the person that said the odds decrease as more and more fills are made is sadly, no mathematician, even though he's a prolific poster.
 
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Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
I believe they do have an algorithm that activates when slots are filled >5. I think if you do 2 for 1 trades to get all slots down to less than 5 then the algorithm allows that last annoying slot to fill. I've run probability calculations and can say almost without a doubt that when a slot fill is >5, the odds of that last 200 diamond slot to fill is essentially 0. I once had 20 BP's in one slot and 12 to 15 in the others and that one slot was STILL EMPTY. Impossible to get 100 prints and never have that one slot fill without a biasing algorithm. That said, I think it relaxes when all slots are filled but again in my analysis, your GB will always have one problem slot. It's different on each GB, but after 60 levels you know which slot is the problem child.
Do you also believe the Earth is flat and that the moon landing was an elaborate hoax? Because those are just as likely as your mystery algorithm.
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
Just did 50 rolls of a die. so 1/6 = 16% chance of getting any #
Results:

1-12
2-5
3-8
4-5
5-9
6-11
Actually 16.6% chance. Meaning 8.3 times per 50. And you got two numbers almost exactly on the average, two a little over half the average, and two about 50% over average. What exactly does that prove to you?
 
I believe they do have an algorithm that activates when slots are filled >5. I think if you do 2 for 1 trades to get all slots down to less than 5 then the algorithm allows that last annoying slot to fill. I've run probability calculations and can say almost without a doubt that when a slot fill is >5, the odds of that last 200 diamond slot to fill is essentially 0. I once had 20 BP's in one slot and 12 to 15 in the others and that one slot was STILL EMPTY. Impossible to get 100 prints and never have that one slot fill without a biasing algorithm. That said, I think it relaxes when all slots are filled but again in my analysis, your GB will always have one problem slot. It's different on each GB, but after 60 levels you know which slot is the problem child.

If you are saying that you had accumulated the first 100 prints for a building and had an open slot, then that would be problematic. Anything less than 5 prints per slot in that scenario would be cause for concern. If you have used prints from the overall sample to open new levels or trade and now have no prints in one of the slots, that would significantly impact the probabilities and would be a much tougher case to make.
 

67Sage101

Active Member
Actually 16.6% chance. Meaning 8.3 times per 50. And you got two numbers almost exactly on the average, two a little over half the average, and two about 50% over average. What exactly does that prove to you?
I don't need to prove it. It's been proven by mathmaticians. The higher the samples the more all possible outcomes will approach a perfect 16.6% as you correctly point out. I'm not going to roll 1000 and tell you. I'll just leave that proof to the many textbooks on the subject.
 

67Sage101

Active Member
If you are saying that you had accumulated the first 100 prints for a building and had an open slot, then that would be problematic. Anything less than 5 prints per slot in that scenario would be cause for concern. If you have used prints from the overall sample to open new levels or trade and now have no prints in one of the slots, that would significantly impact the probabilities and would be a much tougher case to make.
I am saying exactly that. My arc had a zero slot that was for sale (200 diamonds), ALL the other slots hade a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 17. I traded 2 for 1 down till every slot had 5 or less and the last slot finally filled. That's NO lie. However now that the slot filled with one, I was able to build it back up and that slot fills now but still lags way behind the others.
 
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