Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
If you missed it, Orius Maximus has an excellent take on Carnival strategy...give it a look...
-
We are looking for you! Always wanted to join our Supporting Team? We are looking for enthusiastic moderators!
Take a look at our recruitement page for more information and how you can apply:
DeletedUser29623
Where? In this thread he's saying he thinks he's going to sit the thing out.
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
Like I said...an excellent take....this thing is tougher than Carnival last year, and, from the looks of it, it will be expensive for a larger 3 fp producer. I may dink with this but I have no illusions about a 7th level bridge. It seems that INNO is increasingly raising the value of its top prizes like there is some inflationary economic model going on here....Not impressed.
DeletedUser29623
But some of us don’t have an issue with map or tech requirements, so the fact that someone else does is not really a helpful response to how to get maximum value from the event if you ARE doing it.
DeletedUser33008
I like the games, and the bettingsystem, but I was wondering... Are there almost only theese happiness incrasing prizes, or can I actually win something that is usefull for me, and others that has this happiness under control with Great buildings? I mean... I must admit I liked the prizes in the last event better. BUT, I have only seen the first ones, so I'll give it some time 
centaurgod
Member
At apx 10:00 EST today the event icon from the left side of the screen went bye-bye. The DC and recurring events are still there and you can still use your existing tickets from the option at the top,..... Is this a traveling carnival? (LOL)
Freshmeboy
Well-Known Member
Yes, Lauramiller, its an ugly event this go around...Have you SEEN the prizes and the valuations of them by INNO...? Florins cost .4 diamonds a pop (if you buy the big set) which means the large chest costs 224 diamonds for a slim CHANCE at a prize. Seems a bit over inflated compared to last year. Giving up sectors or a province for slim shots at over valued prizes is not a good thing. I believe that was Orius' take on this event and I concur...
DeletedUser30312
Actually, I might have been wrong in my last post. I said the starting numbers for the 15% and 5% chance were different from last year but I think they're the same after taking an initial look at it. Wasn't it 50 and 100 respectively for both events? The screenshots on the wiki might be misleading me, I'm trying to repress my memories of the last one....
Feedback from last year, dug up the link while doing some research:
https://forum.us.forgeofempires.com/index.php?threads/venice-carnival-event.16421/
Anyway my strategy for last year I think went something like this: Wait on the 15% until it gets to at least 140 or 150 florins, then play that game. That's because 15% is between a 1/6 and 1/7 chance of winning; assuming a player needs to spend 6-7 tickets it'll get the pot to 120 to 140 florins on average before someone wins. The 5% game is only a 1/20 chance so you'd want the pot to to have at least 300-400 florins there before even remotely considering it. Don't bother with the double chance unless the potential jackpot is really big, something like 400-500 florins on the 15% and at least 700 on the 5%. The double chance makes it 30% and 10%, which is 1/3-1/4 (3/10 more precisely) and 1/10 tries respectively, so you'll want a nice fat jackpot if you're going to gamble on it. The 100% of course is a sure bet, but it's a tiny trickle when taking into account how much the prizes cost, especially the direct prize. Without spending RL money, you'll probably have to take a few gambles to get anything. I would still spend 1 an hour to keep the bar from filling up and thus keep earning the tickets. If you're going to log for an extended period and the risky games aren't worth it, then spend enough tickets on the 100% depending on how long you expect to be away from the game so your bar at least refills. I took some gambles on it last year, and it occasionally paid off.
That might not necessarily be the best strategy though because I only have a fairly basic knowledge of probability.
My more detailed take on the prizes:
The Bridge naturally is the big pull here, but like I said earlier it's an inferior Pillar of Heroes, and harder to get all the upgrades as well. PoH at only level 5 is still decent, but the Bridge would probably need to be at least level 6 to be worth it.
The Dock Market is a pretty standard Bazaar variant, it has guild power as the 4 hour production, fp as the 8 hour, and 10 goods as the 24 hour. So it's another Bazaar variant with double goods, but unlike say the Rosarium, it takes up the same space as the standard Bazaar but rotated 90°. The Ball makes a return, that makes 2 fp/day which double the normal for a Bazaar. I guess it depends on how much you like multi-producers and what you like to make with them, go for the Market if you want goods, and the Ball if you want fp. They seem fairly average to me, but I've mentioned before that I don't like multi-producers so keep that in mind. Still, they're both 4x5 and have typical productions, but there are other such buildings that either produce more or have a smaller footprint.
The Mansion and Villa are variants on the Ziggurat, houses that produce happiness equal to the population produced. The Villa has less population than the Ziggurat by roughly a third but has the same footprint. It also produces coins once every 8 hours compared to every hour for the Ziggurat, and the coin production compared to the Ziggurat seems to get worse as the building's age goes up. It might be worth it for someone who needs the coins rather than the population especially if they get the population from an Inno or maybe a Hab. The Mansion is roughly twice the population of the Villa and about 133% more than the Ziggurat, but produces coins once a day at a rate that is lower compared to the other two buildings for a footprint that is 33% larger than them. It seems worse than the Villa overall.
The other stuff are just decorations.
So these prizes aren't too bad depending on a player's needs, but I wouldn't go out of my way to go for them if you're worried about the map advancement the event will require. Too much risk for too little potential gain. Worse, success depends on what your neighbors do, since ideally you'll want neighbors who gamble foolishly for your own advantage. From what I remember of last year's Carnival, players seemed to gamble less on the event as time went on, so once people get burned enough on the 15% and 5% games, they'll stop playing them and there'll be less jackpots worth shooting for. And you'd need to camp the event anyway to try to snipe a good jackpot that comes up.
This Carnival does award a nice big chunk of florins in the middle though, which is a step up from last year. But from what I can see the prize costs are as nastily high as they were last year. That's one of the things that I didn't like about it, I wanted to get my first Champ retreat, but it cost 4500 Hearts. First one showed up very early, when it finally showed up again I think I had only half the hearts needed because no one was biting at the risky games and my income of hearts slowed to a trickle. It took me until the Summer casino to finally get those Champs. I think I stopped doing the quests at some point to conserve sectors or techs as well. I know I didn't get to the end because I didn't get the avatar and I wasn't concerned about losing it.
Replacing the BBAOD with a fancy schmancy arrow does not remove the arrow annoyance factor.
Feedback from last year, dug up the link while doing some research:
https://forum.us.forgeofempires.com/index.php?threads/venice-carnival-event.16421/
Anyway my strategy for last year I think went something like this: Wait on the 15% until it gets to at least 140 or 150 florins, then play that game. That's because 15% is between a 1/6 and 1/7 chance of winning; assuming a player needs to spend 6-7 tickets it'll get the pot to 120 to 140 florins on average before someone wins. The 5% game is only a 1/20 chance so you'd want the pot to to have at least 300-400 florins there before even remotely considering it. Don't bother with the double chance unless the potential jackpot is really big, something like 400-500 florins on the 15% and at least 700 on the 5%. The double chance makes it 30% and 10%, which is 1/3-1/4 (3/10 more precisely) and 1/10 tries respectively, so you'll want a nice fat jackpot if you're going to gamble on it. The 100% of course is a sure bet, but it's a tiny trickle when taking into account how much the prizes cost, especially the direct prize. Without spending RL money, you'll probably have to take a few gambles to get anything. I would still spend 1 an hour to keep the bar from filling up and thus keep earning the tickets. If you're going to log for an extended period and the risky games aren't worth it, then spend enough tickets on the 100% depending on how long you expect to be away from the game so your bar at least refills. I took some gambles on it last year, and it occasionally paid off.
That might not necessarily be the best strategy though because I only have a fairly basic knowledge of probability.
My more detailed take on the prizes:
The Bridge naturally is the big pull here, but like I said earlier it's an inferior Pillar of Heroes, and harder to get all the upgrades as well. PoH at only level 5 is still decent, but the Bridge would probably need to be at least level 6 to be worth it.
The Dock Market is a pretty standard Bazaar variant, it has guild power as the 4 hour production, fp as the 8 hour, and 10 goods as the 24 hour. So it's another Bazaar variant with double goods, but unlike say the Rosarium, it takes up the same space as the standard Bazaar but rotated 90°. The Ball makes a return, that makes 2 fp/day which double the normal for a Bazaar. I guess it depends on how much you like multi-producers and what you like to make with them, go for the Market if you want goods, and the Ball if you want fp. They seem fairly average to me, but I've mentioned before that I don't like multi-producers so keep that in mind. Still, they're both 4x5 and have typical productions, but there are other such buildings that either produce more or have a smaller footprint.
The Mansion and Villa are variants on the Ziggurat, houses that produce happiness equal to the population produced. The Villa has less population than the Ziggurat by roughly a third but has the same footprint. It also produces coins once every 8 hours compared to every hour for the Ziggurat, and the coin production compared to the Ziggurat seems to get worse as the building's age goes up. It might be worth it for someone who needs the coins rather than the population especially if they get the population from an Inno or maybe a Hab. The Mansion is roughly twice the population of the Villa and about 133% more than the Ziggurat, but produces coins once a day at a rate that is lower compared to the other two buildings for a footprint that is 33% larger than them. It seems worse than the Villa overall.
The other stuff are just decorations.
So these prizes aren't too bad depending on a player's needs, but I wouldn't go out of my way to go for them if you're worried about the map advancement the event will require. Too much risk for too little potential gain. Worse, success depends on what your neighbors do, since ideally you'll want neighbors who gamble foolishly for your own advantage. From what I remember of last year's Carnival, players seemed to gamble less on the event as time went on, so once people get burned enough on the 15% and 5% games, they'll stop playing them and there'll be less jackpots worth shooting for. And you'd need to camp the event anyway to try to snipe a good jackpot that comes up.
This Carnival does award a nice big chunk of florins in the middle though, which is a step up from last year. But from what I can see the prize costs are as nastily high as they were last year. That's one of the things that I didn't like about it, I wanted to get my first Champ retreat, but it cost 4500 Hearts. First one showed up very early, when it finally showed up again I think I had only half the hearts needed because no one was biting at the risky games and my income of hearts slowed to a trickle. It took me until the Summer casino to finally get those Champs. I think I stopped doing the quests at some point to conserve sectors or techs as well. I know I didn't get to the end because I didn't get the avatar and I wasn't concerned about losing it.
Replacing the BBAOD with a fancy schmancy arrow does not remove the arrow annoyance factor.
DeletedUser29623
Thanks for the tips on the games above. That’s what I was looking for, a method for getting the bridge to the highest possible upgrade, although it would be terrific if someone with the skillz wants to run models on it!
DeletedUser29623
I would probably never buy a prize outright, or spend diamonds on any of it. I’m perfectly happy to gamble on the chests and take what comes, but all I really want is the bridge and as many upgrades as I can get, and if there is a more effective way to get it, I would like to know. As long as I’m not spending real money on diamonds or florins, it’s all basically free, and it adds some extra interest to the daily game. Sectors and provinces are not that big an issue for me at the moment.
DeletedUser31498
As far as when to try your luck with the florins, "300-400 before remotely considering it" for the 5% one seems a little conservative? Tickets replenish every hour so there's a lot of participation I imagine, especially early as you mention. They add 15 Florins/loss and start at 100. So on average, the prize is won after 10 attempts (which isn't to say the average pot is 250). But the odds of getting to 300 are actually exactly 50%, and 400 are 33.5%. If you're close to your max of 10 tickets I'd be happy to jump in at 300. With 10 tickets you're 40% to win the 5% prize. As far as when to use the double, anything over 500 seems worth it to me as that occurs 25% of the time. I have no sense of what math to use though as far as a hard number for any of this on when it's "right" to do whatever.
Pot size 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500
Odds 50% 36% 25% 18% 13% 9.1% 6.5% 4.6% 3.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8%
sorry no idea how to format this
DeletedUser31882
To be fair, any good Christian should give up FoE for lent. ;P
I'm not 100% sure (I'm low on time today to analyze it) but my first take is that your math is a bit off or misleading. Assuming the 40% is true, that is still pretty low chances with a higher probability of walking away with nothing.
Anecdotal fuzzy data to add: I pursued the 5% prize when it was in the 700ish+ range (I didn't write down any exact numbers). I ended up blowing 2-3 11 ticket purchases and switched to 10% in my final 11 tix push to snag the pot. I ended up finally getting a 1330 pot (I assume that is what it was based on the top gamester tracker?).
Anywho. I'm usually more conservative with my diamonds, but at least I got a big payout for my trouble. Here's hoping my luck is better when it comes to bridge upgrades.
DeletedUser33413
I think the wikia has been updated: http://forgeofempires.wikia.com/wiki/2018_Carnival_Event but I'm not recieving daily challenges. Are they active?
DeletedUser27889
Have you unlocked them in your tech tree yet?
Anyone else notice they added 3 new pricing options? A $100, $150 and $200. I would scoff but I played on Y for a bit and saw what 'whale' meant. Though I do find it odd the diamond screen now opens to these huge prices and unless you click the top 'small diamond' icon you won't see any lower prices. I'd actually think they would lose money this way, you're not going to get a lot of new players dropping $100 a pop right off the bat. Unless their plan is that the rich ones who will drop 100 when they don't see an option for less outweigh all those willing to buy diamonds but not willing to buy $100 'worth'.
DeletedUser27023
I will support the game and typically drop $100 here and there but when I looked at what they were offering for $100, I laughed. 4600 Florins is nothing. No $$$ this time around for Inno.
qaccy
Well-Known Member
Keep in mind that you're still getting $100 worth of diamonds with the purchase, as is always the case with diamond tie-ins. You're not simply paying that amount for whatever the bonus item(s) is.
Like those little tree-shaped air fresheners that come with buying a car...you're not actually paying thousands of dollars for that air freshener, are you? It's kind of the same thing here.
DeletedUser31498
Anyone have an estimate of how many florins to expect? We get ~30 tickets/day b/w freebies and rewards and ~7k florins?
If each ticket you win on average a pot of ~400(???) 5% of the time, those 600 tickets = 12k for a total of 19k florins (though strategic use of the 20 Florin double adds to that).
Given that, should I just plan to buy 3 SoKs? or the upgrade costs 3400 on average, so just get 4 of those and spend whatever's left on SoK chances? And how much does the SoK chest cost and at waht %? Don't see it on the event page now that they cleared the beta info.
If each ticket you win on average a pot of ~400(???) 5% of the time, those 600 tickets = 12k for a total of 19k florins (though strategic use of the 20 Florin double adds to that).
Given that, should I just plan to buy 3 SoKs? or the upgrade costs 3400 on average, so just get 4 of those and spend whatever's left on SoK chances? And how much does the SoK chest cost and at waht %? Don't see it on the event page now that they cleared the beta info.
DeletedUser30312
I'm not going to bother SoK farming here. In last year's Carnival the SoK was shoved into a prize chest that had the SoA, SoI and more filler and it had the lowest probability. As an individual prize, it was something like 6250 Hearts? Very expensive and hard to get. No, SoKs show up in the big events anyway, since clearly Inno knows they're one of the main money makers, so I'd rather just farm one of those events anyway. There's small chances to get them out of the DCs too. I've got 3-4 sitting in my inventory anyway since I don't have space to place them.
qaccy
Well-Known Member
I don't think anybody noticed the addition to the event announcement about the upcoming Q&A on Tuesday, since I don't see anyone else mentioning it. I'm not normally cynical like this, but I suspect it's not really going to be very enlightening anyway based on past Q&A sessions. Probably going to be mostly 'common sense' questions that are already answered by reading the event info in-game, and/or some other relatively softball stuff with some vague non-answers. I'd like to see Q&As performed with a pre-picked list of questions as well, as if memory serves a lot of time for these is wasted by reading through live chat or FB comments searching for questions to answer.