#### DeletedUser31498

Given all the worlds and all the hoods, there must be some 2k+ pots right?

**Defining instance as everyone playing until it is won.

Given all the worlds and all the hoods, there must be some 2k+ pots right?

**Defining instance as everyone playing until it is won.

Holy hell, that's a lot of pissed players!I saw one at 3500-something.

I got one of the bridge upgrades, and 3 more canals. Eh, I really don't care about getting through this event so I'm not concerned one way or other. The prizes here are kind of lackluster unless you like multiproducers and are lucky enough to get Balls or Markets depending on what you're making from them. The Renaissance Villa is okay, but everything else is kind of a sub-par version of something else. I was more disgusted with last year's carnival, but this time I'm not actively looking for special buildings since I don't have the space for them. I've got some SoKs, Rogues and a couple of other building just sitting in my inventory from lack of space, so everything's a big shrug. Not really interested in the avatars either. I stopped at quest 9 too, I'm not invested enough in the outcome of the event that I want to advance on the map.

Holy cow thats impressive! If no one doubled until halfway through, happens once every 48 Million instances! And if people doubled before even less likely.I saw one at 3500-something.

Can you explain how to calculate that?Holy cow thats impressive! If no one doubled until halfway through, happens once every 48 Million instances! And if people doubled before even less likely.

I'm waiting for whichever chest it is that gives a 20% chance for the upgrade. As difficult to get as those things are I figure I should stop caring what other prizes are in the chests and just go for the best chance for that one.

Unfortunately that is the problem. At at least one of them. When the bridge upgrade appears in the "multiple prize" chest, it the one prize that is statistically designed to be the one least likely for you to get. The percentage that it is awarded is far below all the other stuff in the chest. So your chances of getting it are very slim to none at all. If the bridge upgrade does not appear in the "single" prize box, I am afraid that most players will not get getting even one, much less five.

I like the upgraded special buildings, but only if it is designed so that most players can get the needed upgrades. It's not the idea that is flawed, but the way the designers are making it close to impossible for people to get the upgrades. They could put the upgrades in the chest with other prizes, but they should make the prizes all equal---not make it so that the bridge upgrade, which is what everyone wants, it the least likely prize to be won. AND the bridge upgrades should also appear in the single prize box, so that people can trade their florins for it. What is making most people very unhappy is that it is nearly impossible to get the upgrades needed to bring the Bridge to it higher levels.

I got it with just luck. In total I bought 14 Architects chests and won 4 upgrades, 6 SoKs, 3 canals and a rogue. All without Diamonds.Correction, freshmeboy. Cannot be completed without diamonds AND extraordinary luck!

I hope my math here is correct. I haven't done this in a while.Can you explain how to calculate that?

(3500 - 100) / 15 ~= 227 (number of attempts to get 3500 pot)

227 / 2 = 113.5 (number of doubled and number of non-doubled attempts)

Now in this case I believe that he worked with 113 + 113, which technically only amount to a 3490 pot. We'll do the math with 113 + 113 to get a similar conclusion.

The chance of failing 113 times in a row (no doubling) is 0.95 ^ 113 ~= 0.003 = 0.3%. That happens about once every 1 / 0.003 = 333 instances. In this case we aren't done, we need to continue our multiplication. The odds of failing 113 times in a row (no doubling) and then 113 times in a row (doubled) is 0.95 ^ 113 * 0.9 ^ 113 ~= 2 * 10^-8

So now we arrive at

1 / (0.95 ^ 113 * 0.9 ^ 113) = 48733660. Once in 48.7 million instances. Of course as with all things chance/probability you shouldn't look at that number and think that is what

There may well be a better way to do this. If there is, please do share.

Great feedback - good to get it off your chest - if you'll pardon the pun.