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Carnival, another rigged contest

  • Thread starter DeletedUser34480
  • Start date

DeletedUser34480

I've spent some diamonds initially, looking to get 2 sets of buildings by the end of event.
Should have known better...
As of yesterday, I've had about 10K+ florins... guess, how many buidings/upgrades I've got?
One (my last) upgrade for the first set -- and nothing today. (if somebody doesn't think it is ugly, take into account that I was always choosing the best percentage chest even if other one had more attractive prices).
So, once again, percentage doesn't matter -- second set needs to paid separately.
 

DeletedUser36624

There's no rigging. If you've spent 10K florins and have one full level 2 set (not sure if that's what you meant by "last upgrade for the first set"), you've actually been very lucky. With average luck, that would get you four or five pieces. I spent 12K florins before getting my first piece, and overall I have spent 24K to get five. That's bad luck, but given that this event is pure gambling, some people are just not going to get much.
 

UBERhelp1

Well-Known Member
I've spent some diamonds initially, looking to get 2 sets of buildings by the end of event.
Should have known better...
As of yesterday, I've had about 10K+ florins... guess, how many buidings/upgrades I've got?
One (my last) upgrade for the first set -- and nothing today. (if somebody doesn't think it is ugly, take into account that I was always choosing the best percentage chest even if other one had more attractive prices).
So, once again, percentage doesn't matter -- second set needs to paid separately.
First, the event is literally made so that you shouldn't get much more than one set (if at all) without spending diamonds. Additionally, the best % chest isn't always the best, as the cheapest chest isn't (I had to explain that in a huge debate in my guild... ).
 

DeletedUser34480

There's no rigging. If you've spent 10K florins and have one full level 2 set (not sure if that's what you meant by "last upgrade for the first set"), you've actually been very lucky. With average luck, that would get you four or five pieces. I spent 12K florins before getting my first piece, and overall I have spent 24K to get five. That's bad luck, but given that this event is pure gambling, some people are just not going to get much.
No, you didn't get it. For 10K+ florins, I've got just 1 special.

ps. "I spent 12K florins before getting my first piece" -- which should not have happened, right?
As for my initial buildings/upgrades, yes, I've been getting a very good percentage -- now, recall, I've been spending diamonds to get florins back then.
 

DeletedUser36624

You really can't say "should not have happened" when you're talking about gambling. That's the sort of thing that keeps Las Vegas in business. The chance of spending 12K and getting nothing is about 1.5%, which is low, but if you have 1000 players, it will likely happen to 15 of them. Starting with 10K and getting 1 (or none) is about an 8% chance.
 

- KQ -

Well-Known Member
First, the event is literally made so that you shouldn't get much more than one set (if at all) without spending diamonds. Additionally, the best % chest isn't always the best, as the cheapest chest isn't (I had to explain that in a huge debate in my guild... ).

I haven't been rigorous in using my chances to get florins and and I'm indifferent to trying to watch and try to grab a high scoring attempt. That being said, I haven't spent a diamond on the event and I have a complete set and one upgrade so far. I'm guaranteed one more upgrade if I complete the event and I'm hoping to get another one or two from the 4X daily prize choices.
 

DeletedUser36624

Good memory, and new events are just backing up my opinion (not just "slot machines" but now chest's performance, plus a visible difference in output dims vs no dims).
Your opinion is wrong. Looking over that old thread it is obvious that you don't understand probability and statistics at all. Like I said, thinking like that is what keeps Las Vegas rolling in the dough. Human beings are very bad at dealing with random things, because we are awesome pattern matchers and keep wanting to see patterns where there are none. Humans tend to believe that truly random sequences "can't possibly be" random because there are so many streaks in real random data. Shuffle modes had to be derandomized on pod players because they would do things like play the same song three times in a row, and people would go, "This must be broken, this isn't random."
 

Algona

Well-Known Member
When I saw you nick, I thought you would say that everything is peachy for you.

Good memory, and new events are just backing up my opinion (not just "slot machines" but now chest's performance, plus a visible difference in output dims vs no dims).

I disagree with you, the last year of Seasonal Events and the Forge Bowl have had good prizes attainable by the mjaority of players just by completing the Questline and playing the random element optimally.

i am not a fan of thie Event. I wrote a scathing review to INNO last uear, I'll be repeating it. i see two reasons INNO went with the same Event mechanics. They either didn't have time to create a new Event or the last one was so profitable.

Doesn't change i don't like it. There is not one but two instances of randomness. about a quarter of the folk do REALLY well, about half the folk are gonna do OK, anout a quarter of us are gonna suck at this Event.

Both of my cities are trying to drink thick milkshakes through skinny straws this Event

That;s OK. I keep telling myself at least the prize is not quite so good as the main Seasonal Event prizes have been. So if I had to suck, this was the Event to suck on.
 

DeletedUser34480

it is obvious that you don't understand probability and statistics at all.
(sighs) That's what they said. Facts are, it's incorrect.

Shuffle modes had to be derandomized on pod players because they would do things like play the same song three times in a row, and people would go, "This must be broken, this isn't random."
I'm curious how you came with 1.5% and 8% result. Not much, though, so I'll take it you have some idea of statistics.
On a programming side, do you really believe that programs creating random numbers actually would match some hypothetical true generator? If not, they are not denormalized, they are being brought to reality.
 

Algona

Well-Known Member
On a programming side, do you really believe that programs creating random numbers actually would match some hypothetical true generator?

80% of the way there. Almost exactly on the money:

https://forum.us.forgeofempires.com/index.php?threads/algona-the-peddler.22640/#post-239833

Why, yes, i do have some Missourah (the Show Me state) blood coursing through my veins.

Cant speak for every RNG in the game, but I have yet to see one in this game that has been demonstrated by the collection and analysis f actual data to be significantly different then what INNO has published.
 

DeletedUser24787

give this player a easy button people sheesh he spend diamonds you must give him the prize and remove RNG from random prize.:confused:Every event is rigged if you dont spend diamonds in a ludacris amount:p
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
It's RNG. No matter how good the program it's always going to have clumping with stretches of nothing, stretches of jackpots and a mixture inbetween the outliers. If it didn't do it at all then it wouldn't be random just as flipping a coin is never going to be a perfect heads, tails, heads, tails continuously

The only way you could go through the event and never get a run of 10k florins giving nothing is if the event really was rigged so that if you keep missing it increases the chances in your favour. If it were rigged in the other direction then I would expect an entirely different result in this and every other event then what I've seen. The clumping can occur at any time with any amount spent. Carnival is not new in this it's just more noticeable because you're going to want to spend quicker more often which means you have proportionally less when you go for a prize then in most events prior. One can always make an argument that it's possible for it to be rigged, anythings possible. However I have no reasonable grounds in which to even suspect it to be the case

Edit:
That being said - you could totally ask for the devs to start rigging rng in players favour if that's what you'd prefer. Maybe introduce some sort of countdown that auto makes the next DS successful or something.
 
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DeletedUser36624

I'm curious how you came with 1.5% and 8% result. Not much, though, so I'll take it you have some idea of statistics.
On a programming side, do you really believe that programs creating random numbers actually would match some hypothetical true generator? If not, they are not denormalized, they are being brought to reality.

I used binomial probability with an estimate of 250 florins per chest, 10% probability on each chest opening to get the special. You can quibble with those numbers but making them really optimistic (200, 11%) lowers the percentages somewhat, but doesn't change the fact that in a game being played by thousands of players, there will be quite a few people who have really poor results.

If you really do know about probability and statistics, that should be obvious to you. But if you're saying it shouldn't be possible to spend 10K florins and only get one item, that right there says to me that you don't even understand the basics.

PRNGs (algorithmically generated "random" numbers) vary in quality, but there are plenty that are "sufficiently random" for a game, but not for something like cryptography. Your last sentence ("If not, they are not denormalized...") has no meaning to me. Could you explain further?
 

Agent327

Well-Known Member
I've spent some diamonds initially, looking to get 2 sets of buildings by the end of event.
Should have known better...
As of yesterday, I've had about 10K+ florins... guess, how many buidings/upgrades I've got?
One (my last) upgrade for the first set -- and nothing today. (if somebody doesn't think it is ugly, take into account that I was always choosing the best percentage chest even if other one had more attractive prices).
So, once again, percentage doesn't matter -- second set needs to paid separately.

It's always the same. Players do not understand the concept, so it has to be rigged.

I just flipped a coin. I wanted tails, but it came up heads. I think someone tampered with the coin.
 
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DeletedUser34480

I used binomial probability with an estimate of 250 florins per chest, 10% probability on each chest opening to get the special.
So, you approximated. No problem, I was just curious.

there will be quite a few people who have really poor results.
If you really do know about probability and statistics, that should be obvious to you.
Mix of 1.5% and 8% (I'm lazy to recalculate but 8% seem a bit high, no prob, though, once again) -- you call it "quite a few"?

But if you're saying it shouldn't be possible to spend 10K florins and only get one item
But you probably realize that I'm not.

Your last sentence ("If not, they are not denormalized...") has no meaning to me. Could you explain further?
Sure. I've just got my third in row 100 fp from gold relic. (hopefully, you are not going to ask if I know that there's a probability of it).
 
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