Carnival, another rigged contest

[DeletedUser36624]

So, you approximated. No problem, I was just curious.

Yes. If you wish to calculate your exact probability and have kept records of each chest you opened, go for it.

Mix of 1.5% and 8% (I'm lazy to recalculate but 8% seem a bit high, no prob, though, once again) -- you call it "quite a few"?

For every 10,000 trials, the expected value of 1% failure is 100. Is that not quite a few? This doesn't even count that many players will have multiple trials. I make good money explaining to people that 1 in a million is not "ultrarare" when you're talking billions or trillions of trials.

Too lazy? Open a spreadsheet and use the binomial distribution function. Surely, such an expert as yourself knows how to specify a binomial distribution.

But you probably realize that I'm not.

How can I possibly come to that realization, when you said that exact thing about something similar (spending 12K florins and getting nothing).

Sure. I've just got my third in row 100 fp from gold relic. (hopefully, you are not going to ask if I know that there's a probability of it).

That still means nothing. Denormalization means something to me as a database engineer, but I'm pretty sure that's not what you were talking about. Your example illuminates nothing. Surely you realize that any sequence of three results from three gold relics has about the same chance. Getting a tribal square, followed by 10 rogues, then medals is rarer than getting 100fp, 100fp, 100fp.

You are talking in vague terms and refusing to do any math because you don't want to come out with specifics, perhaps because you don't know how to produce specifics, but in any event because being specific would expose you definitively as not knowing what you are talking about.

 

[DeletedUser32824]

I've spent 28460 florins and won 13 daily specials. That's 2189 per DS or a 13% win rate, which is slightly higher than the average of all the possible chests (10%). So I'm doing pretty well. My worst streak was like 3.5k with no prize and a fully expended pool of florins.

 

[Freshmeboy]

Look folks..it's a gambling event in summer and it won't always swing your way..I am thankful for the past events that I raked in huge amounts of goodies while others didn't fare so well. But INNO doesn't make every event this way and there will be another building right around the corner, another event to help with your growth. I understand the frustration of players trying to get a complete set of artwork themed buildings..if it's that important to you use diamonds...INNO is counting on it. The summer and winter events are their big yearly moneymakers so be warned of the difficulty that lies therein...I'll leave the scathing rebukes for Algona..

 

[DeletedUser3485]

Well, the special events are rigged in the fact that you will never finish in the top 2 finish spots because of the progressive increases in the number of Florins spent; without spending diamonds (AKA cash), because of the people that do spend cash. And no, I'm not complaining, just stating fact. Inno gotta get paid.

 

[RazorbackPirate]

Well, the special events are rigged in the fact that you will never finish in the top 2 finish spots because of the progressive increases in the number of Florins spent; without spending diamonds (AKA cash), because of the people that do spend cash. And no, I'm not complaining, just stating fact. Inno gotta get paid.

It is not rigged in any way. Leagues are based on a % of the server based on Florins spent. Nothing rigged about it, everyone can enter and stay in those leagues if they spend enough Florins. Is it then an additional reward for those who spend actual money? You bet. So what? It doesn't affect me if whales spend more to get more.

Now if you're idea of rigged is people who don't pay for anything not getting the same as people who do pay for stuff, well ...

 

[DeletedUser32824]

It is not rigged in any way. Leagues are based on a % of the server based on Florins spent.

I haven't spent any diamonds on my Wishing Well world (W). It seems like almost every time I log in there is like 500+ florins sitting in the boat race. I double down my chances and somehow seem to win. If I don't win in 11 tickets, I complete a quest to get 5 more. I'm about 1k florins into silver league on that world with no diamonds spent.

 

[DeletedUser36624]

Well, the special events are rigged in the fact that you will never finish in the top 2 finish spots because of the progressive increases in the number of Florins spent; without spending diamonds (AKA cash), because of the people that do spend cash. And no, I'm not complaining, just stating fact. Inno gotta get paid.

I don't think gold is manageable without diamonds. But because of the luck factor in this event, plus that if you pay attention and play smart you can win a lot of florins, silver is probably doable.

Diamonds doesn't necessarily mean cash, since there are many ways to earn diamonds in the game without paying for them.

 

[Emberguard]

I don't think gold is manageable without diamonds.

*diamonds or winning forum competitions

 

[DeletedUser34480]

You are talking in vague terms and refusing to do any math because you don't want to come out with specifics, perhaps because you don't know how to produce specifics, but in any event because being specific would expose you definitively as not knowing what you are talking about.

Nope, just look up a definition of "lazy". Recalculating binomial distribution formula fits there.
I didn't claim myself being an expert. On the opposite, I always feel that drift from you.
As for 100 being quite a few, OK, I'm glad it keeps you employed. Out of 10,000 it is still just 1%.

 

[DeletedUser14354]

If you thought it was rigged last year, why would you spend diamonds on the exact same format this year?

 

[DeletedUser34480]

If you thought it was rigged last year, why would you spend diamonds on the exact same format this year?

I mentioned it already, I thought it only pertains to "slot machines". Apparently, chests look the same way.

 

[DeletedUser14354]

I mentioned it already, I thought it only pertains to "slot machines". Apparently, chests look the same way.

Is English not your first language?

 

[Lancer]

Personally I've spent about 15k diamonds. (7,500 to both of my worlds.) So far, in only one else world I only managed to win one section of the entire spread. And I have 4 upgrades for a piece that I don't have yet.
I'm in silver league in Jaims and Bronze in Yorkton. I've actually finished more quests in Yorkton too. It's just been unlucky for me to win the actual carnival pieces.

 

[Agent327]

If you thought it was rigged last year, why would you spend diamonds on the exact same format this year?

It isn't the exact same format.

 

[DeletedUser14354]

It isn't the exact same format.

complete quest, get ticket. Use ticket at game for chance at florins. use florins for a chance at prize. What is different?

I am being serious, I don't remember the specifics of last year, but to my recollection, its basically the same format.

 

[Agent327]

complete quest, get ticket. Use ticket at game for chance at florins. use florins for a chance at prize. What is different?

I am being serious, I don't remember the specifics of last year, but to my recollection, its basically the same format.

Compared to last year

No Top Gamester
No Timed Reward that changes every 6 hours and that you could get directly by spending Florins
No random reward from a chest that changes every 12 hours.

This year you have two chests with a random reward that changes every 6 hours. Luck has become a much bigger factor and this year there is a league.

 

[DeletedUser38226]

Didn't spend diamonds. Don't expect to end up with a full set, and I expect to be very happy with the outcome.

If I finish the quest line and make bronze, I should be good enough.

 

[Lancer]

Compared to last year

No Top Gamester
No Timed Reward that changes every 6 hours and that you could get directly by spending Florins
No random reward from a chest that changes every 12 hours.

This year you have two chests with a random reward that changes every 6 hours. Luck has become a much bigger factor and this year there is a league.

Yeah that part about not having a top gamester and also not being able to see who spent the most florins in between reward timers, is one of the first things I noticed that wasn't included this year.

 

[DeletedUser34480]

Starting with 10K and getting 1 (or none) is about an 8% chance.

By the way, it is funny. You've said so much crap in my regard -- and I now wonder that after all of that you've made a mistake in calculation.

 

[RazorbackPirate]

I'm glad I got Top Gamester in one of my worlds last year and ended up with a Zanni Mask Statue. Since then it's been like Where's Waldo. He's always hiding in my city somewhere. It's the only deco I have out.