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Developers, please fix a randomizer for Carnival!

  • Thread starter DeletedUser34480
  • Start date

DeletedUser34480

That's a good example of a hollow brag.

<skip>

That aside... you do not believe you have been lucky. Fine.

Ouch.
What your post is a good example of, then?
Where have you found anything about "I do not believe I have been lucky"?
 

DeletedUser34480

Acceptable by whom and by what standard?
By community expectation, how's that?
Did you expect a court notion or a congress bill?
How do you know, that if bus comes every 15 minutes then 30 is too much? That while knock out in adult training is sad, for kids it is out of acceptable? That you may return more or less money to your investor but you cannot get him broke?
What standard are you looking for?
It's a real life, not a roulette in casino.
 

DeletedUser31308

By community expectation, how's that?
This could be a decent way to determine what kind of system would be best, based on what the community would want. But wait a second, you are currently arguing with the community expectation. You see all of these "Well-known/Active Member"s that are telling you it is good the way it is? We make up the community, and our expectation is clear: An unaltered random number generator is what we expect, based on (for me, at least, and certainly for others) over a decade of computer gaming experience.
 

DeletedUser34480

This could be a decent way to determine what kind of system would be best, based on what the community would want. But wait a second, you are currently arguing with the community expectation.
Right, you should take your own advise and "wait a second".
We were talking about real life examples.

You see all of these "Well-known/Active Member"s that are telling you it is good the way it is? We make up the community
That is a serious stretch.
 

DeletedUser31882

There is absolutely no way that is true. Even if you doubled the 15% game every single time (which is insanely improbable that you did that), the odds of winning 8x in a row is a 1 in 200. If you didn't double, then this almost certainly never happened more than once. Why make up such a useless lie?

Can confirm something anecdotally: I've had a handful (5-6?) streaks where I won 3-4 times with 11 tickets on the 15% game. I think the 8x in a row (as in: direct sequential wins) may, in fact, be an exaggeration. I'm not 100% sure it was a malicious lie to strengthen their argument, but... *shrugs*.

In a sufficiently big world, every possible improbable outcome eventuates... eventually. Congratulations!

My physics teacher and I had a discussion on this once. Thanks to it, I do my best to sit next to my toaster and seize the toast as it pops up. Just in case I am the 'lucky' 1 in 1.0X^eY something something multi-universe probability that said toast will launch at the correct trajectory to escape Earth's gravity. I will not let my toast escape me in such a fashion and will remain vigilant.

By community expectation, how's that?
It's a real life, not a roulette in casino.

That's the problem. You expect it to be a non-casino rewarding game. Others here argue that it is, indeed, a casino game. Which makes it appear like you are the one separated from reality.

So the randomizer isn't broken by many people's standards that are arguing against you. Unfortunately, that wording has led to the trench warfare debate. If the framing/title was changed to "Should the carnival games be changed into Compounding probability instead of Equal probability for more fair and expected distribution of rewards?" [Credit to @THEKYLe for terminology] I think the conversation would have made more sense. Even the bus schedule & karate class examples would be strengthened, as they are good examples of what people expect/want out of a system. A safe karate class, on-time buses & a rewarding game mechanic seem like reasonable expectations. Alas, as they are now, they are corrupted by being related to a hypothetical broken randomizer, which requires a large logical leap. There is not sufficient data to sway people to look at it closer and take the concern seriously. Hence my suggestion earlier of needing data collection.

On the plus side, the framing has developed into an excellent example of what I call "Mean Girls" Trolling. Hopefully everybody is getting a kick out of this in one way or another.
 

DeletedUser27860

An interesting take on it. I would say I disagree with the casino Theory because initially they let you win then the let you lose then occasionally let you win at diminishing return to keep you playing the game though your netsum is a loss.
 

DeletedUser26120

It would indeed be very possible to program in something that ensures users get a minimum amount of a given item - to match percentages vs what has already been won. This would be useful all over the game - GE relics, chests, and so on.

It's a lot of work though.
 

DeletedUser30900

It would indeed be very possible to program in something that ensures users get a minimum amount of a given item - to match percentages vs what has already been won. This would be useful all over the game - GE relics, chests, and so on.

It's a lot of work though.

If we can use pseudorandom system instead of true random system, majority of the players gonna feel way better besides those guys run out of their luck of thier lives:p
 

DeletedUser15539

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, since probability does seem to be a topic that thoroughly escapes most people. Declared chances can be perfectly accurate, while not giving you a guarantee that at any given moment the distribution will perfectly match those chances. If you add up the experiences of the guy who got 3 SoKs in 3 attempts with the people that tried 20 times at 10% and got 0, the distributions should be very close to the expected probabilities. The more samples you have, the more true that is. The 10 tries you've based your conclusion on is a tiny tiny sample size that is inherently vulnerable to skewed results.
Yes, I do understand how probability works. And I do understand that the player who posted in guild chat " I got seven upgrades in 10 kicks" evens out my getting garbage from 3000 energy drinks. But understanding probability doesn't make me feel any better about it.

You know, if I had gotten anywhere close to 9 upgrades I would have spent diamonds to finish it off. But since I'm no where close, I'll just level great buildings instead to get the same benefits at zero additional space.
 
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