Did recurring quest drop percentages change?

Discussion in 'Questions' started by Billyjoejimbobbitt, Jun 12, 2018.

  1. Billyjoejimbobbitt

    Billyjoejimbobbitt New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2018
    I am new to the game, found the heavy questing guide and have been running with 14 pairs of alchemists in HMA for a couple of weeks now. However, about 5 days ago I noticed that I wasn't getting any FP packages. I don't think it's just luck - I did 70 saltpeter quests in 5 days and got 2 FP packs. I just did another 30 unbirthday quests and got zero FP packs.

    Anyone else notice a change in drop rate?
     
  2. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2016
    Hasn't as far as I can tell really. They don't state the actual % so we'll never really know though. What is it like 5-6% or whatever, so that's 5 or 6 of 100, you got 2 so you're just behind the long term average, give it another few hundred for a larger sample and you'll begin to converge closer to that 5-6% over the long term average.
     
  3. Agent327

    Agent327 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 22, 2018
    Ofcourse it has dropped. Not like it is RANDOM or anything!
     
  4. Billyjoejimbobbitt

    Billyjoejimbobbitt New Member

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    Apr 16, 2018
    You are right
    Clever boy. You are correct. It is random. Code changes, and I suspect degrees of randomness may as well.

    Elsewhere in the forum, I saw a figure of 6% drop rate for FP. Small sample size might just mean an unlucky patch. I'll keep track for a bit.
     
  5. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

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  6. Agent327

    Agent327 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 22, 2018
    Why?

    Where?
     
  7. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2016
     
  8. Konrad the mediocre

    Konrad the mediocre Well-Known Member

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  9. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

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    Sep 19, 2016
    Huge difference relative to what? For our purposes on this thread it doesn't really matter if it's set at 5%, 6% or 7%, as I said and what the link supports is run enough trials and you'll eventually converge on the long term average. Right now the op ran 100 trials and got 2 but with such a small sample size it wouldn't be correct to state that 2% is the average over the long run because the sample is too small. His next 100 trial runs might average out to 8% so now the original convergence of 2 moves towards 5%.

    The more trials the more confidence one can have the long term average is converging on whatever they have it set at which is the unknown variable which very well could be 5%, 6% or 7% and you wouldn't really be able to tell because convergence does not equate to the actual because any future trial can move it in either direction plus I don't think the OP will be able to play to infinity so really, no, there's essentially no difference for our purposes here, if IG bumped it down 1% we wouldn't really feel the difference.
     
  10. Pythagoras 1290 The Dire

    Pythagoras 1290 The Dire Active Member

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    Jan 5, 2018
    I've been regularly doing the recurring quests in the PE (collect supplies or coins, spend FPs and occasionally the Unbirthday quest). I can't remember the last time I got any FP packs. Mostly, I get coins or supplies and occasionally goods.
     
  11. Manda the first

    Manda the first Well-Known Member

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    Dec 19, 2016
    I've noticed, anecdotally, that since having a largish CF and doing more and more quests in a day the less FP rewards I get. But I decided after seeing this thread to take off my tin foil hat and test the theory. I did 100 RQ's in a row, this is after doing probably around 50 for the day.

    In those 100 RQ's I got the FP reward twice, which is a 2% rate. Granted a limited sample size.

    More interesting was the break down as I recorded it in series of 10's
    1-10 -No FP reward
    10-20 One FP reward
    20-30 One FP reward
    30-100 No FP reward

    So for the final 70 RQs no FP were won at all. Leading me to think that they just may be cutting you off of the FP after some amount of RQs or the drop rate for FPs are in flux. IE 10 Percent for the first 10 per day, 5 percent for the next 50 2 percent for the next 20 .5 percent and maybe eventually 0. This is of course nothing but conjecture.
     
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  12. JCera

    JCera Well-Known Member

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    Sep 26, 2017
    My CF has been at the same level for a few months now. I can say that big picture, it is truly random, but I will find it goes through cycles where I get one reward a lot, another nearly never, then it will change the next day. On a single day, chances are you are not going to find your results fit the data others' have. But, since it is random, you would have to monitor it for a long time- months at minimum- before you would have the data to support a change.

    Murphy's law or whatever, but I find I never get what I need. A few medals shy of an expansion? I can do 20 UBQs and not get medals once (yet another day I seem to get nothing but medals.) Need coins or supplies to finish my other RQ slot, a DC, or other quest? I get the opposite (this is the case with incidents, too)

    I must be getting everyone's FP packs because across all of my worlds, I've gotten a lot in the last week ago. The other day while collecting (RQ set on coins and I did the UBQs) I got 6 FP packs in a row. When the third came up, I started actually counting because it was unusual. (This was out of about 10 quests- 5 coin, 5 UBQ)
     
  13. Manda the first

    Manda the first Well-Known Member

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    Dec 19, 2016
    I did another batch of 100 and this time 8 FP packs, so an 8% drop rate of this limited sample, even higher than the wiki quote.

    10s (2) 20s (2) 30s (1) 40s (1) 50s (1) 6 (x) 7 (1) 8 (x) 9 (x) 10 (x)

    Again they seemed to drop off the more in a row I did them. From 60-100 there were none.

    Overall for 200 RQs I received 10 FP packs, for a 5% drop rate but still 200 is a small sample.
     
    Titris Thrawns likes this.
  14. xivarmy

    xivarmy Well-Known Member

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    Jul 14, 2017
    over 100 samples, assuming the 1/14 rate which is the one i believe, your results are expected to range from 0-19 packs reasonably speaking :
    upload_2018-6-13_23-51-46.png

    Human instinct is really lousy at perceiving true randomness. It's prone to see patterns where there are none. Streaks and whatnot are perfectly normal from true random numbers. If you have a sample size of 10000, dilligently collected without bias (i.e. omitting a day you feel was unremarkable out of laziness), then you can start to raise some questions. I had cared enough to work on this at some point before i came to accept the 1/14 rate for everything except 2/14 for small coins/supplies - i don't any longer though to confirm that's still the case.
     
  15. Konrad the mediocre

    Konrad the mediocre Well-Known Member

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    Nov 13, 2014
    Not exactly. It basically tells you the probability that an experimental result differs from the true value and that it converges to 0 (for most distributions). But that assumes that you know what the true value is. From 5% to 7% is a 40% increase in the number of successful trials. You don't need a large number of trials to detect that.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2018
  16. JCera

    JCera Well-Known Member

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    Sep 26, 2017
    Murphy's law struck this morning. I did 20 UBQs trying to get just ONE coin reward to complete the event quest (I was barely short) and I got goods 16 times, 1 FP pack, supplies 2 times, before finally getting coins. If I wanted goods, I'd have gotten something else, lol
     
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  17. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

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    Sep 19, 2016
    What in gods name lol, okay maybe in the quantum realm, but okay if you can easily detect a 1% shift in stats collecting random rewards then you must be like Rainman or something, I'll humbly admit I can not.
     
  18. Konrad the mediocre

    Konrad the mediocre Well-Known Member

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    Nov 13, 2014
    No offense but linking the law of large numbers in a forum post and then claiming you have to be a savant to understand stats 101 is ridiculous.
     
  19. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

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    Sep 19, 2016
    I didn't say that I said "easily detect a 1% shift in stats collecting random rewards".
     
  20. Agent327

    Agent327 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 22, 2018
    Better be carefull. He is bound to loose the argument, so that means you are a troll.
     

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