DeletedUser26965
Let's remind ardak kumerin of a wheel example
I value Wishing Well so that is the prize I want. Let us use Ardak thinking and compare the % of each successive wheel spin to opening a large basket. With each spin my % increases. With each basket I buy my % stays the same.
With this wheel and 27 spins I get 1 Wishing Well at 100%.
With 27 large baskets I get an average of 5 Wishing Wells.
See the Basket is clearly better right? 5 is better than 1 I'm sure of it. Or so I would think if I thought about the stop loss gap in the continuums of endless losses per the mechanic of the universe times pi.
Not really. See I'm not really making a fair comparison.
I could run out of tickets before I get the WW in the wheel. And I had to refresh a bunch of times to get WW to come up in the first place.
Statistically speaking it's possible to not get a WW with 27 baskets.
In both cases I need to buy more to increase my chances overall at getting either.
They are effectively equal events overall in the long run.
I value Wishing Well so that is the prize I want. Let us use Ardak thinking and compare the % of each successive wheel spin to opening a large basket. With each spin my % increases. With each basket I buy my % stays the same.
1/27 3.7%
1/26 3.8%
1/25 4%
1/24 4.1%
1/23 4.3%
1/22 4.5%
1/21 4.7%
1/20 5%
1/19 5.2%
1/18 5.5%
1/17 5.8%
1/16 6.2%
1/15 6.6%
1/14 7.1%
1/13 7.6%
1/12 8.3%
1/11 9%
1/10 10%
1/9 11.1%
1/8 12.5%
1/7 14.2%
1/6 16.6%
1/5 20%
1/4 25%
1/3 33.3%
1/2 50%
1/1 100%
1/26 3.8%
1/25 4%
1/24 4.1%
1/23 4.3%
1/22 4.5%
1/21 4.7%
1/20 5%
1/19 5.2%
1/18 5.5%
1/17 5.8%
1/16 6.2%
1/15 6.6%
1/14 7.1%
1/13 7.6%
1/12 8.3%
1/11 9%
1/10 10%
1/9 11.1%
1/8 12.5%
1/7 14.2%
1/6 16.6%
1/5 20%
1/4 25%
1/3 33.3%
1/2 50%
1/1 100%
1/27 20% (16.3% better than the wheel)
1/26 20%
1/25 20%
1/24 20%
1/23 20%
1/22 20%
1/21 20%
1/20 20%
1/19 20%
1/18 20%
1/17 20%
1/16 20%
1/15 20%
1/14 20%
1/13 20%
1/12 20%
1/11 20%
1/10 20%
1/9 20%
1/8 20%
1/7 20%
1/6 20% (3.4% better than the wheel)
1/5 20% (Equal to the wheel)
1/4 20%
1/3 20%
1/2 20%
1/1 20%
1/26 20%
1/25 20%
1/24 20%
1/23 20%
1/22 20%
1/21 20%
1/20 20%
1/19 20%
1/18 20%
1/17 20%
1/16 20%
1/15 20%
1/14 20%
1/13 20%
1/12 20%
1/11 20%
1/10 20%
1/9 20%
1/8 20%
1/7 20%
1/6 20% (3.4% better than the wheel)
1/5 20% (Equal to the wheel)
1/4 20%
1/3 20%
1/2 20%
1/1 20%
With this wheel and 27 spins I get 1 Wishing Well at 100%.
With 27 large baskets I get an average of 5 Wishing Wells.
See the Basket is clearly better right? 5 is better than 1 I'm sure of it. Or so I would think if I thought about the stop loss gap in the continuums of endless losses per the mechanic of the universe times pi.
Not really. See I'm not really making a fair comparison.
I could run out of tickets before I get the WW in the wheel. And I had to refresh a bunch of times to get WW to come up in the first place.
Statistically speaking it's possible to not get a WW with 27 baskets.
In both cases I need to buy more to increase my chances overall at getting either.
They are effectively equal events overall in the long run.
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