Good luck with that. You are #1073 that is convinced there is a problem cause you do not get what you need and want.Langendorn here. Event was going along fine but then since the last update it went downhill.
For the last 4 days, whether it be Daily Challenge or Daily Event Quests, I've only received either Apples or Caramel with one instance of Pumpkins. The only reason I've been able to bake anything is due to Incidents popping up Cinnamon or Chocolate, which are few and far between. Today's Daily Challenge netted Caramel, again.
I've gone from Star Baker to Professional in aforementioned time period and am in danger of dropping down further unless something changes.
I will be filing a support ticket since, from my view, it seems the algorithm is weighted towards Apple and Caramel despite the displayed equal percentages across ingredients.