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Forge Bowl: Rewards Statistical Analysis for Acquiring lvl 7 Pillar with no diamonds.

DeletedUser32824

Kestenn said:
Why stop? Can't you get the Daily Special more than once a day?
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Reportedly you can. I never got that confirmed from anyone. If that is the case, once you get to the first day it's available you might as well spam all the footballs. Saving them though might give you more time to collect more, allowing you to choose some of the more expensive cooler choices that net the best yards and special bonus whereas you might be desperate if you blew all your footballs on the first day and only have 200 left on the next.

Totally preference though. If I get my first one early I'll probably keep going :D
 

DeletedUser31498

amiar said:
Reportedly you can. I never got that confirmed from anyone. If that is the case, once you get to the first day it's available you might as well spam all the footballs. Saving them though might give you more time to collect more, allowing you to choose some of the more expensive cooler choices that net the best yards and special bonus whereas you might be desperate if you blew all your footballs on the first day and only have 200 left on the next.

Totally preference though. If I get my first one early I'll probably keep going :D
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Do the cooler options stay if I don't make a purchase one day? Or is it like the winter event where they get shuffled every day? If they do get shuffled, the proper strategy, assuming the upgrade comes twice, is to play the first time as many times as you can UNTIL you get either a set of three bad cooler options, OR you don't have enough to buy a good one that is offered. Not like they're going to offer the upgrade back to back days, so saving all till last time is a waste, since you lose a good cooler potentially if presented with one. Of course, if the cooler's dont change until purchased, it's still better to play since who knows you might get lucky and get two upgrades early, then can buy the SoKs when they re-appear. No advantage to waiting for 2nd time.
 
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DeletedUser14354

I think there is one major point about the strategy that people are overlooking. The strategy shouldn't be to hoard your footballs until the reward you want is the touchdown prize. The strategy should be to use the most optimal cooler (yardage/footballs) until you get close enough to the goal line. Then you wait until the touchdown prize you want is available.

If you hoard until the prize comes up, you may not make it to the goal line that day.
 

DeletedUser29623

indisposed999 said:
I think there is one major point about the strategy that people are overlooking. The strategy shouldn't be to hoard your footballs until the reward you want is the touchdown prize. The strategy should be to use the most optimal cooler (yardage/footballs) until you get close enough to the goal line. Then you wait until the touchdown prize you want is available.

If you hoard until the prize comes up, you may not make it to the goal line that day.
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You’re confusing the daily special with the touchdown prize. The touchdown prize only changes to a new item when you win it. The daily special has a chance of being awarded whenever you pick a cooler. It changes every day. People are suggesting that players who want the upgrade wait until it’s the daily special
 

DeletedUser14354

Lauramiller said:
You’re confusing the daily special with the touchdown prize. The touchdown prize only changes to a new item when you win it. The daily special has a chance of being awarded whenever you pick a cooler. It changes every day. People are suggesting that players who want the upgrade wait until it’s the daily special
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You are right.
 

DeletedUser32824

Updated the OP with a quick reference list of good coolers:

I made some easy reference lists of the top 5 coolers for each category in order from better to worse:

Best YARDAGE coolers:
  1. Orange 150
  2. Blue 120
  3. Orange 85
  4. Orange 90
  5. Blue 135
Best SPECIAL chance coolers:
  1. Blue 80
  2. Orange 60
  3. Blue 65
  4. Blue 135
  5. Orange 85
Best OVERALL coolers (yardage and special)
  1. Orange 85
  2. Blue 120
  3. Blue 135
  4. Blue 80
  5. Orange 150
Blue 210 isn't on any list! It's terrible! Only choose this if you want a specific building reward inside!
 

DeletedUser32824

freshmeboy said:
My strategy has been to simply take the chest with the highest percentage for the daily special...and it has paid off. Well/ BTW, if you have one yard left for the TD you can choose a longer yardage...the extra yards will be credited to your next TD run..
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This might seem like an okay strategy, but the 210 cooler has terrible yardage, so you might find yourself a couple yards shy of 3 TDs by the time the end of the event rolls around.
 

DeletedUser32620

amiar said:
NEVER sacrifice the 3rd touchdown for a higher chance at the special. The 3rd TD is a guaranteed gain, whereas sacrificing yardage for a higher chance at the special is a risk that might net you both no special and no 3rd TD.
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I set up a Monte Carlo simulation and came up with a very different result! I believe prioritizing DS over touchdowns provides a significant advantage. My analysis does rely on the assumption that multiple PoH upgrades could be won in a single day. See my post here and let me know what you think!
 
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