Global Cooling(oops) how about warming?

Discussion in 'Debate Hall' started by karmacanic, Jun 19, 2017.

?

Climate change or Extortion?

  1. Climate change

    22 vote(s)
    57.9%
  2. Extortion

    16 vote(s)
    42.1%
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  1. Mustapha00

    Mustapha00 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2015
    His statement remains true.

    Hurricanes have not increased in frequency, intensity or duration since Katrina.

    https://www.cnsnews.com/news/articl...ths-without-major-hurricane-may-be-coming-end

    According to NOAA, no major hurricane- "major" being category 3 or higher- had struck the US mainland in a record 142 months before Harvey hit Texas in late August.

    The old record? 96 months.....set all the way back in 1860-1869!
     
  2. darthhenning

    darthhenning Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    There has indeed been global warming. But significant shifts have happened historically at similar pace to what has happened due to modern climate change.

    [​IMG]

    This has occurred throughout human history without pollution.

    In point of fact, even with the current global warming, we are significantly cooler than many points in our history

    [​IMG]

    So while there has been a significant chance since we started monitoring, its not the first time or even most significant climate change that has occurred.

    But what's even more important to note is that the temperature of the planet actually has not changed appreciably in a decade. (Source: US National Center for Environment)

    [​IMG]

    There were indeed decades of abrupt climate warming, but this has slowed and debatably stopped over the last decade.

    There are many reasons we should be switching away from fossil fuel use to renewable energy (pollution, depletion, etc), but global warming is an aspect of the fact that we've only started having the ability to monitor these changes in the last 100 years, and watching numbers change in real-time is very different than the majority of human history.

    We'll only be able to look back at this to determine whether this was really soley due to pollution/human effects, or part of the normal varriation of the planet, but the vast majority of "climate change projections" are based off the data from the 80s (or 50s) through 2007.

    Its almost impossible to find projections based on 2007 and after because they don't fit the narrative.
     
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  3. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Historic hurricanes. Annual raging wildfires across the west and northwest. Unprecedented tornado outbreaks. High percentage of thunderstorms being severe. Almost unheard of snow amounts in some places, while unusually mild and snow-free winters in others. I don't need skewed data to tell me that the climate is changing. I can observe it for myself. And I haven't even mentioned the plethora of strong earthquakes the last few years.
     
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  4. darthhenning

    darthhenning Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    Earthquakes are due to plate tectonics and cannot be affected by weather. So that's not relevant.

    Yes climate has changed, None of the data debates that it has. And has may times in history

    The question is whether the temperature is currently increasing (it has not for a decade), and whether this is some irrevocable change (likely not).

    Also, we didn't even see what Hurricanes looked like before satellite imagrey. So yes, its "historic" for the last 50 years. That isn't really much data on the timescale of the planet.
     
  5. Lord Muggle

    Lord Muggle Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2017
    (TAKEN FROM (NASA LINK)
    "The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001. Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months that make up the year — from January through September, with the exception of June — were the warmest on record for those respective months."

    "The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events."

    "The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia."

    "Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming."
     
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  6. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    So, we can know that there were warmer periods way back when, hundreds and even thousands of years ago, as someone stated earlier in this thread, but you're now arguing that we can't know how severe hurricanes were before the advent of satellite imagery? I should think you would use the same standard for both issues in order to be intellectually honest.
     
  7. darthhenning

    darthhenning Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    The major difference is we can measure with reasonable accuracy what the temperature was for thousands of years in the past through ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica), tree cores (only hundreds of years) or certain geological formations. So we can look at historical data to build a picture of temperature changes before observation.

    By contrast, we do not as yet have a way to determine how severe hurricanes (or any other storm) were in the past based on modern data. It wouldn't even be possible to accurately calculate the severity of last year's storms based on data from this year if we didn't have written records.

    So no, you cannot use the same standard for different data sets that use totally different information obtained from totally different sources.



    Again I start out by saying in my first post that there HAS BEEN climate change. My point is not to deny that it has shifted. It is instead to point out that since the mid-2000s, we have reached a peak and more or less stayed at that level within measurement margin of error. Which is a good thing. .

    I finish by saying we still need to address pollution for a variety of reasons (much as we did with CFCs and the ozone...though those were since found to only be contributing to an exacerbation of the normal fluctuations), but that the pure panic approach adopted by using projection from the early 2000s are misleading because observations are falling far short of those.
     
  8. freshmeboy

    freshmeboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    While human impact on the planet can be vicious in many forms, we cannot extrapolate a future climate with any certainty based on the miniscule amount of data we have at our disposal....There is no problem with showing awareness of our folly on managing this planet's land and resources since the advent of the Industrial revolution, nor should we stop exploring the nature of our climate at present for change BUT it is ludicrous to exist in a state of fear perpetuated by mainstream science with a singular focus and agenda. This planet is in a constant state of evolution, climatically, tectonically and volcanically. To believe the sun, earth or the cosmos themselves remain in some kind of static condition is just foolhardy....
     
  9. Konrad the mediocre

    Konrad the mediocre Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2014
    How much "mainstream science" have you studied? What "alternative science" do you think should be used instead?
     
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  10. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Why do so many groups try to characterize the opposing viewpoint as somehow "Fear-based"? Recognizing the adverse effect some of our practices have on our environment, both short-term and long-term, and taking steps to alleviate the damage we are causing is simple self-preservational logic. The naysayers on climate change are led by those with an agenda which, if left unchecked, would most certainly destroy any long-term livability of our planet in exchange for their short-term financial gain.
     
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  11. freshmeboy

    freshmeboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    I am not a naysayer, Mr. Longshanks, but the media prefers to sensationalize the findings of the IPCC as media is wont to do...it sells advertising...this planet does not have a static temperature and never has...we have entered the longest warming phase in the planet's history in the last 300,000 years and are actually due for a cooling event...the ice cores drilled in 1995 in the Greenland Ice sheet project confirm these cooling cycles. As does the the phasing of the sun in Sol cycle 25 that will start in 2023 and last until (hopefully) 2045.The greatest amount of weather data is contained in those ice cores and understanding how our planet cools is actually more important than how it warms. From a survivalist point of view, our species needs warm weather and more of it not a cooling period...the impact of our CO2 emissions may actually alleviate the potential devastation of another mini cooling in the next 30 years....
     
  12. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Is that like the players that think they're "due" for a good prize?:p
     
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  13. Kataphractos

    Kataphractos Guest

    The IPCC actually promotes the most conservative scenarios, simply because of its nature as an international bureaucracy in the service of geopolitics rather than pure science. Whatever "fake news" may or may not be putting out, the situation is bad.

    I can't believe you're actually advancing this as an argument against global warming.

    This is so off-base that it can't possibly be an honest mistake: Fresh, whoever your source is, they've been feeding you bald-faced lies. It's as simple as that.
     
  14. Kataphractos

    Kataphractos Guest

    You...do realize there was a time before Katrina, right? And that since we're talking about decade- and generation-scale perspectives, Katrina, Harvey, and Irma are all pretty much simultaneous? I know human memories are short and Twitter-era memories are shorter, but don't let Internet A.D.D. erase your brains completely: this is not "normal".

    https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cold.png
     
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  15. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Forum Moderator

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    May 8, 2015
    And now "Maria" has devastated Puerto Rico. That's 2 U.S. states and 1 U.S. territory in less than a month that have been hit and hit hard by major (by any standards) hurricanes. And another that luckily veered off into the Atlantic. Decidedly not normal.
     
  16. freshmeboy

    freshmeboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    I can't believe you are ignoring the data from 300,000 years of ice core data in analyzing the length of this warming period...or the fact that cool weather impedes the growth and variety of land species. That is basic human development 101. Warm weather increases the amount of arable land for agriculture and C02 is the driving force of photosynthesis. Ancient man develops agriculture, creates settlements, produces a surplus that develops trade and war, the surplus leads to wealth which in turn leads the to arts and sciences. The very reason we are able to communicate by PC is the result of a long period of static temperatures in the warm zone. Look at the ice core data and you will see the earth has been colder much longer and for greater degrees of time than it has been warm. It's as simple as that
     
  17. Kataphractos

    Kataphractos Guest

    The graph you posted to prove your point doesn't even get as far as the 1950s. Please insert your own Captain Picard face-palm and/or "how the f***" meme here, as posting images on this forum is still unfathomable sorcery to me.

    Whoever the "US National Center for Environment" is -- you do realize anybody can just call themselves the "national center of XYZ" without having any actual authority or experience, yes? -- they're feeding you another bald-faced lie, and one which has been refuted many times before. Like...it's been refuted so many times, I'm not even going to bother with an XKCD comic, I'm giving you a RationalWiki article, that's how ridiculous this particular claim is, here you go.

    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Global_warming#Hey_look.21_There.27s_been_no_global_warming_since_1998
     
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  18. Kataphractos

    Kataphractos Guest

    Well, lucky for us, I'm not. In fact, I'm agreeing with you. High-fives! We are due for a cooling period, possibly (though not very probably) an all-out glacial period. The Little Ice Age should have been longer, or more severe, or both. The fact that none of this happened -- that in your own words, we are still "due for a cooling period" -- is a powerful clue that something funky started happening to the climate right around...the mid-1700s, the mid-1800s. And then increased throughout the 19th, 20th, and early 21st Centuries. What could that something be, Fresh? Whatever could it be!?

    Let's...sigh...let's just get this point nailed down before Gish-galloping off to your woeful misunderstanding of "human development 101", shall we?
     
  19. Dursland

    Dursland I am Dursland Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    [​IMG]

    Nothing wrong with Planet Earth folks. Keep calm and carry on.
     
  20. Kataphractos

    Kataphractos Guest

    And you know what they'll do, right? They'll say 2017 was a fluke, no reason to worry. And then when the same thing happens again in 2019 or 2021 or whenever, they'll have forgotten all about 2017 -- it'll be another fluke. And then when it finally comes to the point we're getting multiple Cat-5s each year, they'll say the weather's always been like this...and they'll point to 2017 as the proof!

    (Also, don't forget the Virgin Islands. They're a U.S. territory too.)
     
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