Guild Expedition Statistics Wanted

[DeletedUser28021]

I'm gathering statistics about GE costs and rewards. My current plan is to tabulate, for each of my cities, my net gains and losses per GE level, over several weeks, and publish some kind of summary. To avoid comparing apples to oranges, I plan to include the age of the city, its combat bonuses, and its Temple of Relics level. Thus if any of those things change during the tabulation, it's a new "city".

I'd love it if others wanted to join me in this plan.

A summary report for a single city week might look something like:

IA city, ToR 0, +3 atk, +3 def
--level 1 -10 attached troops, +3 unattached troops, -1500 tavern silver, +1 ToB blueprint, +30 prior age goods, +10 diamonds, +2 FP, +3 motivation kits
--level 2 +3 unattached troops, -30 current age goods, -15 prior age goods, +2 ToR blueprints, -3000 tavern silver, +1 mass motivation kit
--level 3 (only 4 encounters) ...

Numbers in the above example totally unrealistic.

 

[Algona]

Seens an interesting idea, but, hmmm, can i ask why? What do you plan to do with the info?

 

[DeletedUser28021]

Seens an interesting idea, but, hmmm, can i ask why? What do you plan to do with the info?

I'm trying to make some kind of estimate of when GE participation is or is not worthwhile for the player. That still wouldn't account for the benefit to their guild, but it gives reasons to participate or not - and perhaps how far to go, or what levels a like-minded guild should open.

My suspicion is that for those not able to do the whole thing with troops, GE may often be somewhat less efficient than buying FP for goods But perhaps that's just cynicism speaking, or memories of particularly bad weeks.

And besides, when I floated the statistics project in my guild, other people expressed interest in what I would find.

 

[DeletedUser]

This is just anecdotal evidence, as I have not kept track, but GE is totally worth it if you battle without losing troops you can't afford to. I negotiated all three levels for a while until the rewards took a nose dive. It is totally not worth it from a player's perspective to negotiate more than the first few encounters of level 1. After that, it starts draining your goods inventory. It used to be that you would get a plenty of goods back, but the goods prizes have been few and far between since they changed the prizes.

 

[DeletedUser28021]

I got a notification for another reply which isn't showing up here. Kind of responding to it here.

I wrote:

"My suspicion is that for those not able to do the whole thing with troops, GE may often be somewhat less efficient than buying FP for goods"

That was of course a twitter-sized sound-bite. There are some good things available from GE, other than FP.
And for a low level player (at least), a Terrace Farm is wonderful.

Unfortunately, at least for that same low age player, 5 terrace farms are not 5 times as wonderful. Which would you place in your city; a Castel del Monte, or another Terrace Farm? The Terrace Farm starts out providing more FP - but it's never going to provide more than it starts with.

What I find in practice, is that I care about reno kits, one-ups, FP, and little more, even in HMA.

Medals and diamonds are nice too, and because I rarely buy extra turns I'm making a steady gain of diamonds, which over longish periods gives me extra space in my cities. (Medals can be a net loss, if doing GE level IV.) But the diamond gain rate is low, and I could get the diamonds for RL $ So I don't care as much there.

 

[DeletedUser26965]

Add a Cost/Reward Summary Tab at the End of Guild Expedition

There's also a post floating around somewhere that was gathering info on the A/D bonuses of each encounter by but that was before the change.

 

[Algona]

I got a notification for another reply which isn't showing up here. Kind of responding to it here.

I apologize, I did that. II was late last night and I couldn't seem to write anything that wasn't argumentative. As you all know I NEVER argue. heh. So I deleted it

I guess I like the idea, but I see a couple problems.

One, you've clearly stated you're going into this with bias and expectation. That's mot significant as long as you provide the raw data. Well, it can still be problematic, but what the heck.

Two is that different folk have wildly different evaluations of what is a good return on GE. I have Traz and Rogues and don't care how many Troops I lose so almost any return is fine. In my startup every troop lost will be agonizing. One city doesn't care about winning troops, the other wants them desperately. One city is crammed full with Goods, one city is empty.

Unfortunately, at least for that same low age player, 5 terrace farms are not 5 times as wonderful. Which would you place in your city; a Castel del Monte, or another Terrace Farm?

Hmmm, well, maybe to you. Give me 5 TFs to start he game, I'll be damn happy. In Inventory anyway.

My startup city would love a TF over a CdM, even considering the combat bonus. If i want a 5 FP per day CdM, it costs beaucoup FPs. A TF can eventually get a CdM, can't do the obverse.

Anywau, i guess I'm hoping you're able to get and show buckets of raw data. Not sure you and I would agree on any conclusions you draw. We could have fun discussing them?

Me? Argumentative? Never! What, never? Hardly ever!

 

[DeletedUser]

I apologize, I did that. II was late last night and I couldn't seem to write anything that wasn't argumentative. As you all know I NEVER argue. heh. So I deleted it

I guess I like the idea, but I see a couple problems.

One, you've clearly stated you're going into this with bias and expectation. That's mot significant as long as you provide the raw data. Well, it can still be problematic, but what the heck.

Two is that different folk have wildly different evaluations of what is a good return on GE. I have Traz and Rogues and don't care how many Troops I lose so almost any return is fine. In my startup every troop lost will be agonizing. One city doesn't care about winning troops, the other wants them desperately. One city is crammed full with Goods, one city is empty.

Exactly! My highest city is in CE with Traz and over 500 Rogues, so I just throw 1 AAV+7 Rogues at them, replacing the dead/wounded Rogues after every encounter. My other cities I either don't do GE because I don't have the troops and/or boosts, or barely scrape by, wincing at every loss.

 

[DeletedUser28021]

I apologize, I did that. II was late last night and I couldn't seem to write anything that wasn't argumentative. As you all know I NEVER argue. heh. So I deleted it

Two is that different folk have wildly different evaluations of what is a good return on GE. I have Traz and Rogues and don't care how many Troops I lose so almost any return is fine. In my startup every troop lost will be agonizing. One city doesn't care about winning troops, the other wants them desperately. One city is crammed full with Goods, one city is empty.

[snip]
Anywau, i guess I'm hoping you're able to get and show buckets of raw data. Not sure you and I would agree on any conclusions you draw. We could have fun discussing them?

Me? Argumentative? Never! What, never? Hardly ever!

Agreed. That's *why* I'm going for data, as raw as can be managed and still be readable. And I'll see if I can figure out a good way to separate the resulting data thread from any conclusion/debate thread, while still connecting them.

So far, the data is actually suprising me, but all I've got so far is level 1, from 3 cities with enough combat bonuses to fight their way through it, and ToR's between level 3 and 5. All the ToR's got generous, and did not just produce gates of the sun god and/or faces of the ancient. (My tabulations don't distinguish relics from regular gains, but e.g. +20 FP in level 1 is clearly from a relic ;-))

Those cities should be through level 2 sometime Friday, and level 3 by the end of the week. And if I'm not lucky, one of them will be doing level IV - hopefully the guild won't have serious competition, and it won't have to spend 2 weeks of goods production on GE this week;-))

 

[DeletedUser28021]

I have 2 EMA cities reported in. Both completed level III. Both fought most/all of level I, and little/none of level II. Both gave up on fighting once they lost a single-phase battle.

Extra turns were not recorded, but were used.

City one - EMA; atk +50%; def +39%; ToR 5

level 1 - -2 attached troops, +1 unattached, +15 prior age goods, +5 current age goods, +450 supplies, +35 diamonds, -6000 temple silver, +24 FP, +2 motivation kits, + 1 store building, +1 normal blueprint
level 2 - +13 unattached troops (10 of which were rogues); -85 prior age goods; -111 current age goods, -1134 coins, +12,956 supplies, -10 diamonds, -3000 tavern silver, +115 FP, +1 reno kit, +1 face of the ancient, +1 ToR blueprint, +1 gallows, +1 frame house
Level 3 - +17 unattached troops, -91 prior age goods, +3 current age goods (got a +200 goods relic), +13,779 coins, +15,584 supplies, -1500 tavern silver, +21 FP, +1 mass motivation kit, +1 clapboard house, +1 shoemaker

Estimated usefulness:
- this city has a Traz, and a rogue hideout. Troops unexciting.
- coins, supplies much smaller than normal income; neither gain or loss would have been noticed without recording.
- diamonds are nice
- FP are great
- reno kits are always wanted
- store building - meh
- motivation kits (mass and ordinary) never get used; city has approx 140 enthusiastic friends
- blueprints useless (has full sets for everything its age and below, except obs).
- ordinary buildings useless
- special happiness buildings useless (all city happiness handled by Traz)
- net loss of goods is affordable, but of course not desirable

Next week this city will have better combat bonuses. Looking forward to seeing how far into level 2 it can get with a 4 hour attack bonus.

 

[DeletedUser28021]

City two - EMA; atk +47%; def +36%; ToR 3

level 1 - -3 attached troops, +2 unattached troops, -10 prior age goods, +6754 coins, +4254 supplies, +25 diamonds, -7500 tavern silver, +8 FP, +1 ToR blueprint, +1 normal blueprint, +1 ritual flame.
level 2 - +9 unattached troops (including 1 rogue), -85 prior age goods, -90 current age goods, +12,651 coins, +924 supplies, +40 medals, +50 diamonds, -1500 tavern silver, + 1 ritual flame, +1 gallows
- level 3 - +17 unattached troops, -34 prior age goods, -180 current age goods, -1789 coins, +17,793 supplies, +25 diamonds, -1500 tavern silver, +50 FP, +1 ritual flame, + 1 shoemaker

Estimated usefulness:
- this city has no Traz, and brings in fewer FP per day than city one
- no persistent attackers, so ritual flames won't be placed - but good to have in stock
- ordinary buildings are unlikely to be placed
- diamonds are great
- medals are great, but 40 isn't very many
- coins and supply amounts tiny compared to normal income
- has full blueprints for all buildings its age or earlier
- net loss of goods is more painful here. It doesn't have as many coming in as city one.

 

[DeletedUser28021]

City three - HMA; atk +50%; def + 39%; ToR 4

This city is attempting to switch from a conventional mixed strategy to a heavy questing strategy. One result is going to be a severe shortage of incoming goods during the transition, along with a large appetite for goods to trade upwards. Because of this, and the goods cost of level III, it will probably stop at level II next week, or drop out of the statistics gathering (and GE) entirely.

level 1 - -9 attached troops; +3 unattached troops; +7030 coins; +410 supplies +20 diamonds; -6000 tavern silver; +22 FP; +1 motivation kit; +1 gate of the sun god; +1 face of the ancient; +3 ordinary BP
level 2 - +8 unattached troops; -72 prior age goods; -101 current age goods; -1283 coins; +21,153 supplies; +80 medals; -3000 tavern silver; +1 one up kit; +1 gate of the sun god; +1 victory tower; +2 ordinary BP; +1 brownstone house
level 3 - +17 unattached troops; -17 prior age goods; -226 current age goods; +13,309 coins; +15,060 supplies; +80 diamonds; -3000 tavern silver; + 20 FP; +3 ordinary BP; +1 town house

Estimated usefulness:
- unattached troops very important for this city
- diamonds are always welcome!
- medals too
- victory tower will be placed in some corner

 

[DeletedUser28021]

City four - EMA - atk 53% def 42% no ToR

This city did more negotiation than it should have. It started late, and fought the first 23 encounters - then couldn't handle the 2-phased encounter at the middle of level II. If there'd been more time, it would have waited 4 hours for the combat boost to expire, turned on the negotiation boost, done one encounter, waited 15 minutes and restarted another 4 hr combat boost, then done the same at the next 2-phase encounter. Instead, it turned on the negotiation boost at encounter 24 and negotiated through the end of level II.

level 1 - -6 attached troops; -1 unattached troop; +1340 coins; +1860 supplies; -3000 tavern silver; +5 FP; +1 ToR blueprint; +1 ordinary blueprint; +1 tannery
level 2 - -6 attached troops; +7 unattached troops; -56 prior era goods; -3 current era goods; +9521 coins; -964 supplies; -4500 tavern silver; +15 FP; +2 ToR blueprints

Estimated usefulness:
- this city *has* a full set of ToR blueprints; it just hasn't made space for a ToR since it's in a guild that never opens level III, and sometimes doesn't even open level II. So ToR BPS are no longer useful
- the best thing it got was 20 FP

 

[DeletedUser26154]

Agreed. That's *why* I'm going for data, as raw as can be managed and still be readable. And I'll see if I can figure out a good way to separate the resulting data thread from any conclusion/debate thread, while still connecting them.

The job has already been done for you.

https://forum.us.forgeofempires.com/index.php?threads/guild-expedition-new-rewards.16553/

https://forum.us.forgeofempires.com/index.php?threads/temple-of-relics-feedback.14118/



Jump into these two threads when you like.

 

[DeletedUser28021]

The job has already been done for you.

https://forum.us.forgeofempires.com/index.php?threads/guild-expedition-new-rewards.16553/

https://forum.us.forgeofempires.com/index.php?threads/temple-of-relics-feedback.14118/

Jump into these two threads when you like.

These are very long threads, and start with the usual bitching about Inno.

There is some information, but expressed as changes to a prior state which is not itself documented. (E.g. "Iron Age had boosts removed in the 3rd difficulty")

Cosmic Raven gathered a lot of information about the current crop of special buildings available in GE (new at the time). That information is now also compiled in the FOE Wiki, where it's a lot easier to find.

It's really tedious to go through these two threads looking for details. Could you tell me what pages have:
- a complete progression of rewards and encounters available in GE, including the changes from week to week.
- an accurate table of the new ToR relics and their % values, rather than complaints that Inno has chosen not to release this information.

With those two things, and more knowledge of combat than I have, it would of course be possible to determine such things as averages and standard deviations for costs and rewards. This could then be used to determine cost effectiveness (or lack thereof) in specifc situations. That would be a lot more efficient than the sampling I'm currently doing.

Actually, pointers to any solid information in the threads would be useful.

And if someone really has done the sampling job I'm doing, and posted their results in those threads, please tell me which page(s) of which thread(s) have that data.

 

[DeletedUser26154]

very long threads

 

[DeletedUser28021]

No reports for last week - 3 cities moved to new ages, and the 4th had a combat GB level during GE, making the data hard to compare.

For what it's worth, I've also discovered that the forge of empires wiki page on guild expeditions - forgeofempires dot wikia dot com - has tables describing enemy bonuses and potential chest contents, both based on level and section of GE. It's incomplete, and I don't know whether it's up to date. But it might be possible to compute "average" aka (statistically) "expected" costs/benefits using this data. The ToR effects aren't on that page, but thre's some info on the same wiki's temple of relics page.

 

[DeletedUser28021]

For this week, I have one city reporting.

City five (was city 3, but stats have changed) - HMA; atk +53%; def + 42%; ToR 5

level 1 - -3 unattached troops (includes +1 champion and +10 rogues ); +15 prior age goods; +41 current age goods; +2800 coins; +6200 supplies; + 9 FP; -6000 tavern silver; +1 face of the ancient
level 2 - +18 unattached troops (includes 10 rogues); -32 prior age goods; -81 current age goods; +6642 coins; +3417 supplies; +65 diamonds; +110 FP; -3000 tavern silver
level 3 - +22 unattached troops; -63 prior age goods; -182 current age goods; +13,330 coins; +2877 supplies; +25 diamonds; +60 FP; -3000 tavern silver; +1 tribal square; +1 sacred sky watch

Estimated usefulness:
- this was a very good week - 90 diamonds, 179 forge points (and 37 troops) at a cost of 80 prior age goods and 222 current age goods.

 

[DeletedUser28021]

City six (city four in a new age) - HMA - atk 53% def 42% no ToR

This city did more negotiation than its combat stats say it should have. It's newly into HMA, and using only unattached troops from GE. Unsurprisingly, it didn't have enough of them on hand.

level 1 - +4 unattached troops; -93 prior age goods; +10 current age goods; +9049 coins; +2754 supplies; -4500 tavern silver; +2 FP; +1 motivation kit; +1 ToR blueprint; +1 ordinary blueprint; +1 alchemist
level 2 - +9 unattached troops (includes 1 rogue); -15 prior era goods; -76 current era goods; +9559 coins; -2610 supplies; -1500 tavern silver; +2 ToR blueprints; +2 ordinary blueprints; +1 doctor

Estimated usefulness:
- why bother? If this proves typical, this city should either place ToR, or stop doing GE once it picks up sufficient unattached HMA troops for defence.
- has full set of ToR BP already, so doesn't care about them
- *might* place the alchemist someday
- used the 2 FP

Note that this is a modified HQS city. ToR is 6*6, which would be 6 alchemists, except that they need population and roads, so let's say (conservatively) that it only costs 2 quest loops per day. 14 quest loops without Chateau Frontenac should provide (on average) 21 current age goods, 2.1 small coin packages, 2.1 small supplies packages, 1.05 large coin packages, 1.05 large supply packages, 4.2 FP (in packs rather than on bar), 1.12 chances of random blueprint, 1.12 small medal packages.

Note also that this city is in a guild which never opens level 3 GE, and sometimes doesn't even open level 2 - more reasons not to build ToR. (City five is also HQS, but with both ToR and CF. Eventual decision about ToR in city six will probably be based on city five's cumulative experience in GE levels 1 and 2.)

 

[DeletedUser28021]

City five - HMA; atk +53%; def + 42%; ToR 5

level 1 - -1 attached troops; -16 unattached troops); -51 prior age goods; +45 current age goods; +5479 coins; +6509 supplies; + 5 FP; -3000 tavern silver; +1 ToR blueprint; +1 ordinary blueprint
level 2 - +13 unattached troops; -94 prior age goods; -113 current age goods; +9627 coins; +3592 supplies; +50 diamonds; -1500 tavern silver; +1 ToR blueprint; +4 ordinary blueprint
level 3 - +12 unattached troops; -97 prior age goods; -199 current age goods; +30,817 coins; +14,178 supplies; -10 diamonds; +30 FP; -1500 tavern silver; +3 ordinary blueprints; +1 doctor

Estimated usefulness:
- 40 diamonds, 35 FP, 9 troops - at a cost of 242 prior age goods and 267 current age goods.
- Inno sells goods for 5 diamonds each - so those 40 diamonds are "worth" 8 goods of any age
- apparantly the going rate for 100 PE goods is around 25 FP. So those 35 FP would be worth 140 PE goods
IIRC, fair trade PE to HMA is just about 5:1. So it could be argued the FP are worth 700 HMA goods. I guess this is a good deal.