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Has there been a reduction in diamond chances from WWs?

DeletedUser37249

Hello all,

I have about 100 WWs and FoYs across 3 worlds. For the past several months I've gotten about 100 diamonds per collection, which lines up with the community-reported 2% chance they purportedly give.

However for the last week or so, that probability for me has dropped at least tenfold to a 0.2% or less.

Is anybody else experiencing this?

EDIT: log of diamond collections

Total amount of WWs and FoYs: 118
9/15 - 1x hit
9/16 - 0x hit
9/17 - 3x hit
 
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Jern2017

Well-Known Member
My sample size is not high enough to confirm it (I currently have 84 WWs on my diamond farm world), but I think the chance for WWs and FoYs to produce diamonds is actually 1%, not 2%. I haven't gotten any diamonds in three days but today, I got three hits, so 150 diamonds.

With that being said, I have not noticed any changes. It's probability and one week is certainly not enough to determine whether or not they changed it. The most reasonable explanation is that you're simply on a bad streak. This also happens with relics from the ToR.
 

Algona

Well-Known Member
I've gotten about 100 diamonds per collection, which lines up with the community-reported 2% chance they purportedly give.

No that would be a classic example of observer bias. You expect to see something so remember what you see that supports what you expect to see.

It's 1%. 10,000 tracked collections over 7 months. See the thread Alogna the Peddler in the MK subthread.

Annotate it for a few months and come back and tell us what happened.
 
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DeletedUser37249

OK thanks for the quick responses guys. I figured it was most likely just bad luck for me. I'm definitely relieved yall aren't experiencing the same thing.

Hopefully my luck straightens out soon so I can keep feeding the diamond pit that is my Japanese cultural settlement lol

For the sake of posterity I'll keep a log for a while and report my findings.
 
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Emberguard

Well-Known Member
The Himeji is 1% for 50 diamonds (and officially announced as such). The Crows Nest when it was initially released was also 1% for 100 diamonds.

Given the pattern of 1% for diamonds on initial release it stands to reason that 1% is the standard for buildings not 2%
 

DeletedUser37249

I haven't come close to needing a diamond on my Feudal Japan settlements. I finished my fourth go around with 5 days to spare.

Check out the Cultural Settlements Guide

It's true that it's not necessary, but something I like to do is as soon as you start the settlement spend the diamonds necessary to unlock the first two technologies and get access to the merchant right off the bat.

Access to multiple expansions on day one really helps, as it saves at least 2 days from each playthrough.

Anyway, thanks for the replies everyone!
 
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Woody*

Active Member
FWIW, I hit 9 diamond rewards out of 1178 today = 0.76%. Last time I tracked this was over a year ago and the drop rate was .81% (over 2600 sample size). I'll track it for a few days to get 10k results and report back
 

ODragon

Well-Known Member
I never even thought of this. Very much appreciated. Will take a hard look at doing this the next time around.

Agree on this. I'm 30 minutes from finish another round of this (2 days, 13 hours left on the gold clock) but if that does save a significant amount of time, it might be worth spending my free diamonds on. I'm not opposed to it.

The only negative is that the merchant can be great or okay depending on what it gives you as prizes. Last round I hit for 60 instruments with my first round of it so i opened most/all expansions right away. Time before, it only kept giving soy and paintings so a lot less useful.
 

ODragon

Well-Known Member
Agree on this. I'm 30 minutes from finish another round of this (2 days, 13 hours left on the gold clock) but if that does save a significant amount of time, it might be worth spending my free diamonds on. I'm not opposed to it.

The only negative is that the merchant can be great or okay depending on what it gives you as prizes. Last round I hit for 60 instruments with my first round of it so i opened most/all expansions right away. Time before, it only kept giving soy and paintings so a lot less useful.

Moved the Japan discussion to Cultural Settlements Guide (2.16)
 

DeletedUser37249

@Illuminati Handler don’t know whether you do this already or not, but if you put down the diplomacy first your diamond cost will be reduced. You pay for every missing good and missing diplomacy to unlock

Oh definitely! I actually forgot to do that once and did a real life facepalm lol


better luck today

Total amount of WWs and FoYs: 118
9/15 - 1x hit
9/16 - 0x hit
9/17 - 3x hit
 
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DeletedUser41267

I have 198 wishing wells across several worlds and noticed a dramatic decrease in diamond payouts during this last event. I decided 8 days ago to start tracking my collections for the balance of the event and beyond to see if there has been a payout change. Granted I have only 8 days of data but, with a little over 1,550 collections including today's collections, I have seen 5 diamond payouts. That is a far cry from an average of 1% payout rate. Does anyone else have data that supports this observation?
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
@Zoe 375 the Savior Wishing Wells have always been suspected to be 1% and those that have tracked thousands of collections have come to a figure around the 1% mark

The precedence for officially announced diamond amounts from buildings have always been 1% when first announced

Edit:
This video reckons a wishing well will provide diamonds three times a year which would only be 0.8%, 1% would be closer to 4 times a year per well
 
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RazorbackPirate

Well-Known Member
I have 198 wishing wells across several worlds and noticed a dramatic decrease in diamond payouts during this last event. I decided 8 days ago to start tracking my collections for the balance of the event and beyond to see if there has been a payout change. Granted I have only 8 days of data but, with a little over 1,550 collections including today's collections, I have seen 5 diamond payouts. That is a far cry from an average of 1% payout rate. Does anyone else have data that supports this observation?
When you get 100 days worth of data, come back. Right now your 8 day bad run is nothing more than an 8 day bad run.
 
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