Dumbing down: Dumbing down is the deliberate oversimplification of intellectual content in education, literature, and cinema, news, video games, and culture.
How do they "oversimplify" a probability function?
I understand what you're intrinsically asking about/hypothesizing about, but what you're trying to convey is that you "THINK" they changed the reward percentage allocations the HC has classically delivered (very anecdotally).
Personally having a very deep educational background in statistics and mathematics, I'm
telling you it's going to be next to impossible empirically to study this accurately, but you can try in a very simple way. I'll even give you some help (see image attached).
You'll need to sample over a reasonable timeframe, your HC rewards each day. Create a spreadsheet or use just a piece of paper and tally what you get each day. Try it for 1 month (30 days), religiously tallying your rewards each day, by type you receive.
Then compute the percentages of each, and compare them to the published values. Does your sample look similar to those stated values published?
Here's the point.
You could spend a lifetime doing statistical analysis on this game. Is that how you want to spend your time here? Trying to find a 1% difference over 1 month from stated (published) values vs what you've got?
After watching
the massive efforts of really smart people in multiple worlds to show INNO that GbG competitive matchup algorithms were "askew", Inno finally took a deeper look at the reams of data offered by these community members.... and made "adjustments".
For the few
mathematically unsubstantiated comments here and there about not getting enough HC 200 FP rewards, Inno's going to consider that background grousing/chatter, and imperiously treat it as such.