Is the Space Carrier broken?

[Johnny B. Goode]

You are like some broken chatbot that can't understand what the person you are criticizing is even saying. I said that if I have 10 copies of a building that gives a 25% chance of x and I don't get x even once for a week, then its not really that random for how it works.

So are you saying that you actually have 10 copies of a building that gives a 25% chance at a certain reward, and that you actually went an entire week knowing that not one of those 10 buildings hit that reward even once? And then one of those 10 buildings hit 5 days in a row? Or all 10 hit 5 days in a row? Or for 5 days in a row one of those 10 buildings hit the reward? Or is this just some meaningless hypothetical case that you made up and can't even make it make sense?

And forgive me for not understanding which side of this debate you're on, but you don't really make it clear. You say that you understand about the long run, but then all your examples are of short term cases (real or not, who knows) that contradict that understanding. Make up your mind.

 

[jaymoney23456]

So are you saying that you actually have 10 copies of a building that gives a 25% chance at a certain reward, and that you actually went an entire week knowing that not one of those 10 buildings hit that reward even once? And then one of those 10 buildings hit 5 days in a row? Or all 10 hit 5 days in a row? Or for 5 days in a row one of those 10 buildings hit the reward? Or is this just some meaningless hypothetical case that you made up and can't even make it make sense?

And forgive me for not understanding which side of this debate you're on, but you don't really make it clear. You say that you understand about the long run, but then all your examples are of short term cases (real or not, who knows) that contradict that understanding. Make up your mind.

I used an example of a building. I have seen the 3 pirate hideouts I used to have go for at least a week without paying out fp once at a 40% chance each. I normally don't keep exact track of this but pay enough attention to know that the odds have a habit of skewing one way then the other in sometimes wild oscillations. You don't have to take my word for it though. Many have experienced this and posted about it.

 

[Emberguard]

I used an example of a building. I have seen the 3 pirate hideouts I used to have go for at least a week without paying out fp once at a 40% chance each. I normally don't keep exact track of this but pay enough attention to know that the odds have a habit of skewing one way then the other in sometimes wild oscillations. You don't have to take my word for it though. Many have experienced this and posted about it.

Bad example.

If it’s properly random then you absolutely should have that scenario occurring at 40% and only 3 building, because properly random would still have that occurring at 50% and you’ve only got 40%

 

[jaymoney23456]

Bad example. If it’s properly random then you absolutely should have that scenario occurring at 40% and only 3 building, because it’s still within reasonable to that occurring at 50% and you’ve only got 40%

If you have 3 copies of a building that pays out fp 40% of the time and you do a week's worth of collections without a single fp payout then the payouts vacillate pretty severely vs. where you would think they would be. It still probably evens out in the long run. That wasn't my point though. I was saying lots of players think its suspect because it swings drastically in each direction. I have also gotten the fp payout from the pirate hideout (with having 3 of them) something like 5 out of 6 possible tries in 2 days.

 

[Emberguard]

If you have 3 copies of a building that pays out fp 40% of the time and you do a week's worth of collections without a single fp payout then the payouts vacillate pretty severely vs. where you would think they would be.

Yes, because it’s a small sample size and you’re doing random collections. A week is not long enough to prove or disprove anything with only 3 buildings. Frequency of that occurring would give a much better picture than just saying it occurs. It SHOULD occur at some point if it’s truly random

If I were to go into a random number generator and ask it to do 3,000 random numbers between 1 and 100 inclusive, I guarantee you’d get groups in much higher running streaks of hits + misses than you’re expecting

 

[jaymoney23456]

Yes, because it’s a small sample size and you’re doing random collections. A week is not long enough to prove or disprove anything with only 3 buildings. Frequency of that occurring would give a much better picture than just saying it occurs. It SHOULD occur at some point if it’s truly random

If I were to go into a random number generator and ask it to do 3,000 random numbers between 1 and 100 inclusive, I guarantee you’d get groups in much higher running streaks of hits + misses than you’re expecting

Well there is only 4 possible choices for pirate's hideout payout and fp has the highest percent chance at 40%. All I am saying is that most people intuitively think that something is off if they had 3 of those buildings and the thing with the highest chance of happening does not happen at all for a week. Look at all the players who are convinced the odds are rigged against them or who think the published odds of getting the things players want are inaccurate. Its largely due to this. I don't even care that much myself but inno would have fewer upset players it seems if the payouts were more in line with the stated odds rather than swinging far out in each direction frequently. Not sure what the need for this would be. Seems that it would be just as fair to have a situation where there is say a mechanism to have the payouts match up with the odds on a monthly basis or a weekly one. Anyway I am not that worried about it. Just saying is all.

 

[Emberguard]

I don't even care that much myself but inno would have fewer upset players it seems if the payouts were more in line with the stated odds rather than swinging far out in each direction frequently. Not sure what the need for this would be.

The only way to prevent large swings in random selections is to rig results instead of random.

The (old) wheel from Summer Event is a good example of a more homogeneous result instead of purely random as there was a cap on how many misses you could get providing the wheel isn’t reset by the player(s)

 

[Emberguard]

If anyone's interested in what 14% probability (1/7) could potentially look like in a random number generator, here's 3,000 random numbers generated and then thrown into Google Sheets to color code them:

Spoiler: Original data:

Spoiler: Google Sheets

Interestingly it ended up being 14.8% of numbers were 14 or less in a pool of 3,000, but some of those streaks are 30+ long. Each column is 20 numbers wide, from left to right.

So hypothetically you could end up an entire month of collections and not get your current Age special good from Space Carrier


Edit: Here's the same numbers changed to 1%

Spoiler

One of those groups is 27 rows deep. 27 x 20 = 540. So somewhere a bit under 540 misses in a row. So hypothetically if you got real unlucky on 1% chances you could go more than a year without diamonds from a wishing well xD

 

[Johnny B. Goode]

I used an example of a building.

So you made something up to prove your point. Pretty much the definition of trolling. Not that I'm shocked.

 

[jaymoney23456]

So you made something up to prove your point. Pretty much the definition of trolling. Not that I'm shocked.

As you sit there and troll me. Nice way to make your point.

 

[Ebeondi Asi]

Best way to deal with someone who seeks attention good or bad is to " You are ignoring content by this member."
One click no more crap.

 

[Trinitite]

This is all very interesting, and I am gratified to learn I'm not the only one who wonders about the Space Carrier's performance in delivering special goods. My question is a bit different but related: I have been told that the only solution to not receiving goods other than Promethium is to delete the Space Carrier and reinstall a new one. Is there any basis for this?

 

[xivarmy]

This is all very interesting, and I am gratified to learn I'm not the only one who wonders about the Space Carrier's performance in delivering special goods. My question is a bit different but related: I have been told that the only solution to not receiving goods other than Promethium is to delete the Space Carrier and reinstall a new one. Is there any basis for this?

Not a solution, no.

It is a strategy however. To drown your bad luck in sheer numbers of collections by running it from 1->?? over and over again collecting hundreds of times to get through AF + OF.

That said, if you have a Crystal Cascade from the last event, I recommend you use that and finish special productions instead More per collection and doesn't involve throwing away FP towards a GB you just intend to delete.

 

[Trinitite]

Thank you for the common sense answer. I don't think I have a crystal cascade, but I'll just slog on. maybe a few special goods have slipped through without my notice. No sense in upgrading the space carrier, though it seems I have a big paperweight now in my city

 

[tbone19688]

I just have to say that IMO the SC random rewards has been drastically changed for players who have worked to level it up. It seems that rogues are the hot item it loves to give out. IMO rogues are no longer a great asset an I rarely use them. Diamonds are a extremely rare and the FP and goods payouts are always the lowest. I got rid of my HC for the same reason.
It just does not seem fair that the specs seem to have been altered especially for those who have been playing and know what it paid out in the past.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

I just have to say that IMO the SC random rewards has been drastically changed for players who have worked to level it up. It seems that rogues are the hot item it loves to give out. IMO rogues are no longer a great asset an I rarely use them. Diamonds are a extremely rare and the FP and goods payouts are always the lowest. I got rid of my HC for the same reason.
It just does not seem fair that the specs seem to have been altered especially for those who have been playing and know what it paid out in the past.

I deleted my HC to plant the Eternal , drop in replacement

 

[Mor-Rioghain]

My SC is on my short list of 'get rid ofs' and I'd have to say I'm thinking that my HC won't be far behind.

 

[Ebeondi Asi]

I held on to Space Carrier fo a long time. But deleted it a few weeks ago in my mature Cities to place a Eco Sanctum.
I tossed my little level ten Himeji in Ephesus for another Eco Sanctum. Conversely in Ephesus I'm holding on the Space Carrier yet as I move up Eras for at least a bit longer.
But I'm still holding the HC in my other Cities that are at in 90 levels.

 

[xivarmy]

I tossed my Space Carrier in my main as part of a reorg post-winter event. Crystal Cascade has more-than replaced its use for special goods while I wasn't sufficiently diligent with making sure I negotiate to keep it for the diamonds.

Himeji is floating on the bubble.