Kraken working as intended

Discussion in 'Questions' started by purps99, Oct 11, 2017.

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  1. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Well-Known Member

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    A) I'm not going to debate about whether this thread's argument is similar to another argument on another thread by two other players.
    B) I'm done trying to correct the mistaken notion that random chance on one encounter is affected by random chance results on previous encounters. Vegas gets rich off people who believe that their chances of winning on the next roll are really high because they're "due".
     
  2. Konrad the mediocre

    Konrad the mediocre Well-Known Member

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    It's an assumption that each event is independent. If I was making a game I wouldn't want people to get either too lucky or too unlucky.
     
  3. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Well-Known Member

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    OMG! So now you're trying to start some conspiracy rumor that Inno makes sure we don't win or lose too much? There's no reason for them to. Vegas doesn't do that (probably:p). Unlike the small sample size of each individual player, Inno has the benefit of a huge number of "rolls of the die". So, while individual players may benefit from or be the victim of the odds, Inno comes out about even on them. And before anybody jumps on that to mean that they have 1 million % chance or something ridiculous, I will say that even with the larger numbers, it is theoretically possible for everybody to get lucky all the time or for everybody to be eternally unlucky. And we are talking theoretically here, because each player's individual experience will vary on the curve between the two extremes.
     
  4. ardak kumerin

    ardak kumerin Well-Known Member

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  5. Lord Muggle

    Lord Muggle Well-Known Member

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    Ardak may be a powerful Meme Master with thousands of likes and posts.
    6A399BBC-5A00-4610-95D8-5F206DAA5F7E.jpeg
    But he does not control the forums.
     
  6. ardak kumerin

    ardak kumerin Well-Known Member

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    Just like My Goods.

    c9402d180039cdba2fd2134430752b8d.png

    All Honestly Worked For and Earned.
     
  7. Konrad the mediocre

    Konrad the mediocre Well-Known Member

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    I said that's how I'd run the game (and I've said that many times here). I have no idea what Inno does. These forums are long on assumptions and short on facts. Reducing extremes in luck doesn't mean the stated probabilities are inaccurate. I fail to see how gambling has anything to do with this.
     
  8. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

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    I can quote Inno directly for you on this matter if you like. Now whether you choose to believe them or not is up to you but they said they don't mess with their numbers that way and they are just what they state they are. They said some gaming companies do manipulate in that they will actually give a higher chance than expected because some players just can't grasp the fact that a 97% win doesn't mean 100% so if they lose it's conspiracy time so better just to give them the darn thing instead of dealing with the nonsense.

    There are two main problems I see with humans and statistical probability theory:

    1. The Gambler's Fallacy which has already been discussed above

    2. For a lot of people they just can't understand the Law of Large numbers, they simply can't grasp the concept, it's impossible for them to envision it, for others it comes rather easily to them for whatever reason, brains just wired differently or what have you. This is how we silly humans got magical concepts like "good luck" and "bad luck", those terms have no basis in reality but to those who can't grasp such statistical probability theory they make perfect sense, I mean why else haven't they got a gold relic or prize from an event or whatever, got to be bad luck right?
     
  9. Stephen Longshanks

    Stephen Longshanks Well-Known Member

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    Only if it's not an Inno conspiracy to make them buy Diamonds. :p
     
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  10. ardak kumerin

    ardak kumerin Well-Known Member

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    1. Too many of them.
    2. With Computers.

    02ebded07860875e032b2e5b4847cc3e.png

    Each roll of the dice, hand of cards, or throw of the gnome, is separate.
    It's not all connected like a string of Christmas tree lights.
    To be fair, it's a very hard concept to grasp until you are fully familiar with it.
    It's one of the largest aspects of Gambling, and therefore named after it.

    Very true again and it takes a long time to get a full number spread.

    images.png

    Once they are done being noobs, they will understand how it works.
     
  11. sloppyjoeslayer

    sloppyjoeslayer Well-Known Member

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    But that's not exactly right. Your chances will not increase beyond 20% no matter how many times you do it BUT the more times you do it the closer to 20% you get OVER THE LONG RUN. If you did 100 fights, assuming Kraken applies to all of them @20%, you may be close to 20 of them where it activates but you might not, it might be lower than 20 or perhaps even higher. If you do 1,000 fights(the long run) you may then be even closer to 20%(expected outcome, average) 200 activations but still may be more or less than that. The more you do the closer to 20% you'll get over the long run, the average, but no matter what it will always be 20% chance each time you do it.

    Earlier you used a die as an example. So you roll a die and want it to land on 1. Each roll you have a 20% chance that it will land on 1. So roll the die and write down what it landed on. Keep doing that 100 times. Here, to make this easy use this https://www.random.org/integers/

    Then copy/paste a string of 100 numbers into a spreadsheet, sort them and see how many 1's came up:


    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    3
    4
    4
    4
    4
    4
    4
    4
    4
    4
    4
    4
    5
    5
    5
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    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    5
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6
    6

    Now try it again except this time only use 10 rolls, here's what I got;

    no 1's :(

    5
    6
    6
    3
    5
    6
    2
    3
    4
    4

    BUT WAIT:

    3
    1
    3
    1
    3
    6
    5
    1
    2
    1

    But actually if I take the first 0% trial and add the second trial of 40% what's my average? Yep, 20%;)
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
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  12. ardak kumerin

    ardak kumerin Well-Known Member

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    That settles it.
    I'm calling in The Justice League.

    images (3).jpg

    No, not those ones.

    images (4).jpg

    No, not these ones either, though they are my favorite.

    download.jpg

    Now we're talking.
    I'm sending in The Super Friends.

    download (1).jpg

    The Super Friends will get to the bottom of this.
     
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  13. Konrad the mediocre

    Konrad the mediocre Well-Known Member

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    I never said they messed with the numbers.
     
  14. Big-Bendz

    Big-Bendz Active Member

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    I've gotten 3 hits on 8 or 9 tries on a Level 1 Kraken. My Kraken must be more powerful than your Kraken :p:p:p:p:p

    So is there a hidden counter someplace that tells you when you reach the 10th shot and don't have more? Would be good to know when determining whether to level it or collect on the GB.
     
  15. Lord Muggle

    Lord Muggle Well-Known Member

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    Big Bendz's Kraken
    [​IMG]
    Your kraken
    [​IMG]
    :p:p:p:p:p:p:p:p
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2017
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  16. ardak kumerin

    ardak kumerin Well-Known Member

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    Mine is Living Large.

    20682d76ec695a0f8dad580c8058d3ca.png

    And In Charge.
     
  17. Lord Muggle

    Lord Muggle Well-Known Member

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    Indeed the Kraken in Ardak's city can have a nice chomp at his cherry blossom trees once in a while....
     
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  18. ardak kumerin

    ardak kumerin Well-Known Member

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    I keep a bunch of Contemporary Era Cherry Blossom Trees for several reasons.

    cherry.png

    It allows players of lower eras in my guild to be able to affect a M/P.
    People always have their M/P work and a chance at blue prints.
    My Arctic Future and Ocean Future production buildings get their Motivations first.
    Relatively cheap and easy to move and replace.

    images (12).jpg

    And I think they look lovely.
     
  19. GulfBreezr

    GulfBreezr New Member

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    Sorry, I was disagreeing with you. lol
    There's no such thing as 200% chance of something happening.
     
  20. Darth Mole

    Darth Mole Well-Known Member

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    Are Krakens vegetarian?
    Maybe they spit pirates back out and gnaw on their (wooden) legs
     

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