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How come during negotiation, every time (like 99.994%) it comes down to your last turn and it is a 50/50 chance, I pick the wrong one? Is that a trick to get me to spend diamonds. It is mathematically impossible to get it wrong that many times.
How come during negotiation, every time (like 99.994%) it comes down to your last turn and it is a 50/50 chance, I pick the wrong one? Is that a trick to get me to spend diamonds. It is mathematically impossible to get it wrong that many times.
Improbable, not impossible. Sorry to be the one to break it to you, but you've just been unlucky. (Or it's memory bias. That's where the bad occurrences make a bigger impression on you, so you remember them better.)
You don't say how many is "that many times", but I can assure you that it is mathematically possible for you to pick wrong every single time, and not just 99.994%, even if you pick 1000 times. Improbable, but not impossible.
Improbable, not impossible. Sorry to be the one to break it to you, but you've just been unlucky. (Or it's memory bias. That's where the bad occurrences make a bigger impression on you, so you remember them better.)
You don't say how many is "that many times", but I can assure you that it is mathematically possible for you to pick wrong every single time, and not just 99.994%, even if you pick 1000 times. Improbable, but not impossible.
I will agree that it is improbable not impossible. I used to get about 1 out of 100 right so I guess that is 99.9%. I exaggerated to show my frustration. Well I don't know "how many :that many times: is because now if it comes down to 50/50 guess, I don't even try, I give up and save my good.
Of course Inno would do that. It's a game to us but a business to them. If it is strategy, what is the one I should choose? I am pretty sure I tried everything.
Well I have been playing for 3 years so not sure how much more experience I need to pick the right one. I am sticking to my guns that it is a ploy to make us spend diamonds. 50/50 chance, they rig it so you get it wrong because they are betting that now that you are sure what the correct good is, you will spend the 10 diamonds instead of giving up.
Well I have been playing for 3 years so not sure how much more experience I need to pick the right one. I am sticking to my guns that it is a ploy to make us spend diamonds. 50/50 chance, they rig it so you get it wrong because they are betting that now that you are sure what the correct good is, you will spend the 10 diamonds instead of giving up.
Your issue is memo bias as you remember your losses but not when you win. Inno doesn't need to cheat on such items because if that as coded there are enough players in this game that would actually gather the data that it would hurt their overall business model. They don't cheat because they set up the game so that there are multiple chances for you to gain a benefit (such as finishing the negotiation rather than starting over) for a relatively cheap cost. Their hook is volume, volume, volume.
Still practicing hyperbole or just really bad at percentages or maybe the company that made the calculator function you used is cheating you too?
Looking forward to more posts of any of the above.
Or I suppose you could listen to wolfhoundtoo who nailed the root of your problem.
Recommend making a habir of reading and listening to wolfhoundtoo. wolfhoundtoo has been around for a long time and has repeatedly demonstrated the disturbing habit of being right.
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Comment regarding experience versus understanding of the game.
This game was designed with a lot of complex relationships that take effort to master.
This game has also added a lot of ways to obviate the need to understand those complexities. Arc (Good ol' Arc, warps everything it touches), GBG (unparralled treasures), and SB power creep (good things in small packages) are the three biggest mitigations of needing to learn the complexities underlying the game.
The advent of those three means that players can run up powerful productive cities undreamed of when the foundations of the game were laid without fully understanding the game.
One minor drawback of this is that quite often players who have developed powerful cities but do not fully understand the game run into problems that seem insurmountable to them.
Contrariwise, players who make the effort to fully understand the game see things a bit differently.
Any player who makes that effort eventually comes to the realization that INNO goes out of their way to avoid unsolvable problems or force players to spend Diamonds.
The parallel realization that 'unfair' 'forced' 'unsolvable' 'are always due to the player with that complaint not understanding an aspect of the game and never a problem with the game.
This game is both designed to and successful at providing players means to do whatever they want while allowing a wide variety of choices in playstyle and not requiring spending money.
But INNO can't do a thing about people who refuse to understand they could be wrong or ignorant on what they believe.
I completely agree with Algona and don't whatsohever claim to be an expert at the game but I do now a bit about aspect of the game and even though my city isn't the most advanced I may still know more than players who have been playing a lot longer.
Well obviously, but we can also have fun at the same time, and I can also say that we are spending diamonds (which are just blue things made out of light pixels) with things that are invisible and we are told is our money, we spend hours getting gold bars that serve the purpose of leveling other things made of tiny pixels, which serve no purpose other than too... uh? Then we can spend more paper with some green stamps on them to buy event buildings, that aren't actual buildings.
What I used to do when I negotiated a lot was when you get down to a 50 50 chance ALWAYS chose the good you have the least of every time. I have no proof but I do feel that I chose the right good more that 50% of the time following that strategy. If you choose to pick the good you have the most of always pick that good. Having a rule where you follow the same strategy every time removes thinking from the choice.
That's something my teacher at school told us to do for multiple choice tests. Statistically if everything is randomised you have a higher probability of being right if you choose the same answer every time then if you randomly choose every time on a randomly generated choice
Which ironically.... I took a test where you had to put down an exact 3 digit number. Didn't know how to calculate the answer. So I picked a random number and repeated it for the first two questions, then picked a different number for the last question because I expected it to be wrong for all of them...... turned out it was wrong for the first two questions but would have been the correct number for question #3 *facepalm*
But yeah. Pick a strategy for when it's a 50/50 pot luck shot. Least goods in stock, always the left good, always the right good. Doesn't matter which one, just pick one strategy and stick with it to reduce the odds
That's something my teacher at school told us to do for multiple choice tests. Statistically if everything is randomised you have a higher probability of being right if you choose the same answer every time then if you randomly choose every time on a randomly generated choice
Which ironically.... I took a test where you had to put down an exact 3 digit number. Didn't know how to calculate the answer. So I picked a random number and repeated it for the first two questions, then picked a different number for the last question because I expected it to be wrong for all of them...... turned out it was wrong for the first two questions but would have been the correct number for question #3 *facepalm*
But yeah. Pick a strategy for when it's a 50/50 pot luck shot. Least goods in stock, always the left good, always the right good. Doesn't matter which one, just pick one strategy and stick with it to reduce the odds
Statistically they are correct. If you choose the same answer all the time of 4 choices there is a 25% chance of being right. If you randomly choose an answer then you have a 25% chance of the 25% chance, or 6.25%. Another example is the question, two teams playing a best of 7 game (meaning they must win 4), each team has a 50% chance of winning, what are the chances a team wins 4 straight games? 0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*2 = 12.5% Why x2, the question asks a team not one team. If you ask for one team, then it is 6.25% if you ask for that team, then you add another *0.5 and the answer is 3.125% Why becuuse you have to randomly choose one or the other.
Here's the irony. More people have won the powerball jackpot from quick pick (computer selected chioce) that from choosing themselves or playing the same number over and over.
How come during negotiation, every time (like 99.994%) it comes down to your last turn and it is a 50/50 chance, I pick the wrong one? Is that a trick to get me to spend diamonds. It is mathematically impossible to get it wrong that many times.
I've tracked this for the last six months or so. Usually, I get the 50/50 wrong 79% of the time, whereas my dear wife guesses incorrectly only 40% of the time. Following your logic would I have to conclude that INNO has misandrist tendencies?
I always pick the one that does not have the same one next to the open slot. If both do or both do not then I pick coins followed by supplies followed by the good I have the most of. I don't have any statistics for it, but it seems to work better than 50/50.
I've always had a suspicion that the correct selection of goods for a negotiation is decided after turn 1. With the idea that the answer for turn 1 is predetermined by an algorithm that will say no matter what you choose the readout will be a preselected response of " wrong person / incorrect / correct / wrong person / wrong person " or whatever the ai would decide. And then at turn 2 it would take the remaining options and create a correct answer.
This would be effectively invisible to a player but could heavily weight the possibility of getting any negotiation correct by turn 3 and thus slightly encourage diamond usage.
