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Spin the Wheel probabilities

MOAGLEE

Member
What exactly are the mechanics of the Spin the Wheel in the Summer Event?
  1. Equal probability for each circle to land? If so, what happens when you land on an empty circle (i.e. whose prizes have already been won)? Do you just return empty-handed?
  2. Equal probability for each available prize, so that a green circle would initially have four times the chance of landing than a gold circle?
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
Equal probability for each circle to land on. You can not land on an empty circle. The wheel is only a visual effect. Stopping it only stops the animation faster. Prize you get is fixed the moment you start the wheel.
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
Where is that info from? who claimed that is true? did you get that from the developers? or is that your opinion? From last year that definitely does not seem to be true.
If it is true then it totally cuts any fun out of that part of the game. (But clearly I do not believe your statement) so I ask where it came from.
The part about the wheel only being a visual effect and the prize being fixed the moment you start the wheel is observable if you pay attention. If the prize is coins, for example, you can see that it is credited to you as soon as you click "Spin".
As far as each circle having an equal chance, they are almost certainly using the same type of RNG for that as they do for every other "random" mechanic in the game. And no one has ever claimed that the wheel has stopped on an empty circle, so...
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
The part about the wheel only being a visual effect and the prize being fixed the moment you start the wheel is observable if you pay attention. If the prize is coins, for example, you can see that it is credited to you as soon as you click "Spin".
It is also something that is known for years, but every year there is someone that can make that wheel stop, exactly on the spot he/she wants :p

And no one has ever claimed that the wheel has stopped on an empty circle, so...
If you watch the entire animation you will see see that it can not stop on an empty circle, cause it will be moved on to the next available circle. Animation might be there just for the show, but it does tell you, it is impossible to stop on an empty circle.
 

Sharmon the Impaler

Active Member
Don't forget that the trash rewards are 4 not 1 so you get to hit those 4 times before they drop to 0. Eg I did a 1 sample test for y'all and it took 17 spins to get the gold reward this morning.
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
The question is what happens to the other probabilities? Are they all increased, or is the circle adjacent to the empty one doubled as the animation apparently suggests?
Honestly, only the programmers know the answer to that for sure. There's no way to know by observation, because the wheel spinning is only a visual display of what the RNG determines. It's possible that the number(?) corresponding to an empty circle is programmed out, or the programming could be coded for the RNG to go to the next number/circle when the empty ones come up. (Kind of like how you get medals for a Recurring Quest after it gives Diamonds once in an age.) If the number for the empty circle, or circles, is programmed out, then the probability of each remaining circles increases. If it is programmed to simply go to the next number when the empty one comes up, then the probability of the next circle would indeed double.
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
Going off of the Announcement example, that particular wheel has 9 Spots and a total of 29 prizes. The exact totals may differ depending on what colours you have each time. Pretty sure sometimes I've had 32 prizes on a wheel in the past

It'd be rather difficult to verify if Gold is a 1 in 9 chance, or a 1 in 29 chance. Mainly because the probabilities are constantly changing. So without a official source of confirmation you'd need to not only record every single spin, but you'd need to have a large enough sample size and make sure the math is watertight.

This would likely mean having to sort your results into many different pools of results, running the numbers separately for number of spots remaining and number of prizes remaining. Then comparing and cross examining all the results. However given sometimes you'll go through the entire wheel before you get the Gold and other times you'll get it first spin, it'll take a lot more then just a single city on a single event doing free to play to verify anything. You'd need to be doing it either on every world there is, or be spending a large enough amount of diamonds to be able to record enough spins to compare at each possible possibility

And once you've done all that you still might not have confirmed anything if you end up using the wrong math formula
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
Probably the best method to try and figure it out would be to exclusively use the "refresh and spin" button to reduce the variability in the calculations. Then you'd only be dealing with 9 slots each time (assuming it's always 9 with only the colours in each slot changing).

Would anyone want to use the entirety of their event currency spinning on Refresh and Spin though?
 

RazorbackPirate

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the help.
I'm not sure your expectations. You've been given the confirmed information, anything beyond is speculation.

It's also enough to come to the conclusion that empty spots are irrelevant, as are the number of rewards behind a circle. You can't land on an empty circle, and only one prize per circle is available in a spin.

So, when 9 spots are full, for that spin, you have a 1 in 9 chance of getting the Gold circle, when only 4 spots plus the Gold remain, you have a 1 in 5 chance.

Because the wheel has 29 prizes in total, it could take up to 28 spins on a new wheel to get the gold, should you have to clear all the other rewards out first.
 

Lord Pest

Well-Known Member
The easiest way to program landing on an empty slot could be this

if slot = empty spin again
else
reward prize
stop

so it would just spin again till it hits a slot with a reward in it. You don’t see this and it could spin 100 times in nano seconds.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
The easiest way to program landing on an empty slot could be this

if slot = empty spin again
else
reward prize
stop

so it would just spin again till it hits a slot with a reward in it. You don’t see this and it could spin 100 times in nano seconds.
Except that it doesn't spin.
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
The easiest way to program landing on an empty slot could be this

if slot = empty spin again
else
reward prize
stop

so it would just spin again till it hits a slot with a reward in it. You don’t see this and it could spin 100 times in nano seconds.
Or you could just remove the empty spots altogether with something along the lines of:

Spin
Pick from list
Stop
Reward -1
If Reward = 0, remove from list

Rinse and Repeat


Less calculations needed overall, should be faster