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Spin the Wheel probabilities

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I read all the stuff about not being able to control the outcome of the spin with the "stop" but I have my doubts. I spun the wheel 12 times today and observed. The first 5 times I did not use the stop feature. The last 7 times I did and hit "stop" when the gold circle was at the 12:00 position. EVERY time the gold circle stopped between 8:00 and 10:00. I won the gold prize twice, missed it by one stop the other times. Pure chance? If the result was predetermined then the gold circle's resting spot should be far more evenly distributed. Granted, it's a small sample size.
Feel free to have your doubts. Keep hitting that stop button when you think it is the right moment. Like I said before, every Summer Event there are some that can hit the stop button at the right moment. If you want to fool yourself I can not stop you.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I simply reported my observations, no need for rudeness. Simply put, after pressing "stop" the wheel rotated another 270 degrees +/- 20 degrees. If, as you say, the "stop" button is truly nonfunctional then I challenge you to press the "stop" when the gold circle is at 6 o'clock. Do it a bunch of times and let us all know your experience. If you are correct then you should win the gold prize no fewer than 1 out of 9 attempts.
It is not my intention to be rude, but this comes up every Summer Event and you are totally wrong in your assumptions. Not only that, but you are giving other players the illusion that the wheel can be stopped in a specific position. Read back the event feedback threads of previous years. Several CM's confirmed the wheel is just a visual effect and nothing more. Stopping it only ends the animation, nothing else. Prize is fixed.
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
I read all the stuff about not being able to control the outcome of the spin with the "stop" but I have my doubts. I spun the wheel 12 times today and observed. The first 5 times I did not use the stop feature. The last 7 times I did and hit "stop" when the gold circle was at the 12:00 position. EVERY time the gold circle stopped between 8:00 and 10:00. I won the gold prize twice, missed it by one stop the other times. Pure chance? If the result was predetermined then the gold circle's resting spot should be far more evenly distributed. Granted, it's a small sample size.
Go onto the desktop version of the game. You can prove the stop animation has no effect by simply having a Daily Challenge or Quest active for gathering resources that are available on the wheel. Then spin. You will see the result before the wheel even begins to move, before you ever have access to “stop”. The quests will trigger their results saying you’ve gathered units or coins or supplies
 

Aethelcatt VIII

Active Member
What exactly are the mechanics of the Spin the Wheel in the Summer Event?
  1. Equal probability for each circle to land? If so, what happens when you land on an empty circle (i.e. whose prizes have already been won)? Do you just return empty-handed?
  2. Equal probability for each available prize, so that a green circle would initially have four times the chance of landing than a gold circle?
I'm pretty sure the probability does not go by the circles--it wouldn't make sense from the prize-giver's perspective if you get essentially four times the chance of hitting the gold circle than winning one of the four, say, alchemists in a green circle. A couple of hours ago I came upon a wheel with only four circles still populated, including the gold circle with a guard post selection kit in it and a green circle with three of the original four alchemists remaining. So I went for it, spent all five doubloons I had and, when those five didn't do the job, shelled out a few hundred diamonds for five more. It took nine spins, and I got all three alchemists before finally landing on the gold circle.
 

RazorbackPirate

Well-Known Member
What you write is not consistent with what I have observed. If the "stop" has no influence then the wheel's rotation would end randomly. Sometimes immediately, sometimes after making another full rotation, or anything in between. The simple fact is that, in 7 attempts, the wheel stopped after rotating another 270 degrees +/- 20 degrees, Please stop debating and test it yourself, what do you have to lose?
If you're playing on mobile then you miss the actual observation of watching the prize be awarded the moment you start the spin. No amount of finessing the animation after the award is in your inventory is going to change what went into your inventory when the animation began.

It is funny how there is one player every year. Seems we've found this year's.
 

thekyle

Active Member
From what I have observed personally if the wheel were meant to land on an empty spot the programming pushes the wheel one notch to the next spot and so on down the line until you reach an available prize.
If you fins a *weighted wheel* ( meaning 3 or more spots in a row are empty) you can observe this if you spin and do not stop the wheel you can see it slow to what would be a near stopping point in an animation on an empty space and then just rotate to the next available position.
This can help you earn a gold reward as it means that if the prizes behind it are all empty your odds of winning can be manipulated as the wheel will push you to it if you were to land on the empties.

I cannot say for sure if this is the facts of the game. But that is something I've noticed over several different summer events and adapted into my strategy.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
Please stop debating and test it yourself, what do you have to lose?
Time that I would be wasting.

The stop feature is purely cosmetic. Innogames has said in previous years that the prize is already determined before you spin, and the only reason why the stop button was there was so players can speed up the spinning animation if they didn't have the time, or so another neighbor wouldn't be able to refresh the wheel at the exact moment.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator

RazorbackPirate

Well-Known Member
Unless you have zero curiosity you have already put it to the test. I've collected 3 gold circle prizes in 8 spins since using the stop when the gold circle prize was at 12 o'clock. Maybe nothing more than happenstance but I can live with that.
Yes! We have already put it to the test, it's easily provable. The animation of the wheel has no bearing on the prize you have already received by the time you hit the Stop button. The Stop button cannot have an effect, you've already received the prize by the time you can even press it. The only effect it has is to shorten the time the wheel spins. Exactly what EVERYONE with experience is telling you.

Play your city on PC and see for yourself, or keep arguing. It's fun watching you double down on being wrong.
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
What say you now?
It means Inno must have tweaked the coding on how it displays from every year prior to this one. Which is rather unfortunate given it was up until this year a really easy way to prove that the Stop button has zero influence on the outcome. Make of that what you will. Without the interface giving that visual cue there's no easy way to prove it beyond: if it could be rigged you'd be able to reliably rig it every time, not just some of the time. There are times you will get lucky streaks without ever pressing stop. There will also be times you'll be less lucky.

In any case, I hope you enjoy the event
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
I've been playing golf for 40 years....hasn't made me a scratch golfer. "Experience" is not synonymous with "expertise".
Well yeah, it is. Your golf experience didn't make you a scratch golfer but it also taught you what it takes to be a scratch golfer. You have the knowledge and you know what the physical requirements are, even if you can't meet them. Hopefully you wouldn't also say that, for example, science teachers have no expertise in science just because they don't work as scientists.

Regardless, what difference does it make if a player feels as though he/she has some control over the outcome even if he/she does not?
Because feelings aren't facts. Because the illusion of control can be worse than knowing there is no control.

But sure, if you want to pretend that you can stop that wheel where you want, if that helps you enjoy the event, then go for it. But you're not going to convince more experienced players that you can.
 

Ironrooster

Active Member
I just enjoy spinning the wheel and watching it go.
I seem to get gold more times than I should, but then I'm not really keeping track.
Frankly, this is a pretty easy game and a nice change of pace from the last few events.
My only "strategy" is: I only spin when gold is available and it's one that I want.
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
I find credibility in people who demonstrate expertise in a particular subject regardless of experience.
Using your own golf analogy: If I want to learn to play golf I would trust somebody who has years of experience playing golf, regardless of their actual performance, over somebody who started playing yesterday who can hit a tee shot 300 yards. All the new guy can tell you is "swing hard". The experienced guy will tell you about your grip and how to hold your head and the mechanics of your swing, etc. There's an old saw, "Those who can't, teach." Which means there are those who understand the mechanics of something thoroughly, they just can't apply it very well. I'll take experience over performance every day. At least the experienced can tell you what they're doing wrong, whereas the pure performers probably can't tell you what they're doing right.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I shared my observations and was immediately dissed by "experienced" players whose claim that the prize was awarded before the wheel stops was debunked.
Well yeah, when you're arguing with people you are indeed trying to convince them of something. Nobody said your observation was wrong, we said your conclusion based on that observation was wrong. This is the first "wheel" event where the animation of the prize being placed in your inventory didn't happen before the wheel stopped. That doesn't necessarily mean the prize selection mechanic has changed. It's possible that it has, but it's not pure speculation to assume it hasn't, it's pure speculation to claim it has. And none of us can prove it one way or another without some official word from Inno.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I shared my observations and was immediately dissed by "experienced" players whose claim that the prize was awarded before the wheel stops was debunked. So, any statements about what the wheel controls - if indeed it controls anything - are pure speculation at this point. The fact remains that I've been able to stop the wheel on the gold circle 4 times in my last 9 attempts (near miss the other 5 times). More than what the odds indicate but it is a small sample size. Still, while I may indeed be wrong, what if I'm right?
You were not dissed neither was anything debunked. You are not right and all you are doing is giving other players the false illusion that they can control when the wheel stops. You can't. Knowing you can't is info that helps you. Thinking you can is info that misleads you.
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
The entire "saw" is "Those who can, do. Those who cannot, teach. Those who cannot teach, teach gym" and it had little do do with choosing experience over expertise and more with denigrating the role of educators.
That's not the original proverb.

Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.
proverb Those who are especially skilled in a certain field or area will be able to pursue a career, while those who are less skilled will end up teaching about it instead.

Unless you're saying that people who teach shouldn't be teaching because they don't know what they're talking about, I think you just don't want to acknowledge the point. That's fine, but at least address the actual proverb and not a joke that's been made from it.

I absolutely disagree as would every business leader I know and, IMO, you are dating yourself. This is the argument of many Baby Boomers who believe their years of experience somehow entitles them.
This isn't personal, I don't know why you're going there except that you have no other argument. Finding an excuse to dismiss an argument is not the same thing as rebutting it. This is a discussion about the difference between experience and performance. If you and your amorphous business leaders hold experience in so little regard, good luck with that.
 

thekyle

Active Member
@thekyle, there is no wheel. While your observations of the animation's behavior are accurate, once the wheel begins spinning, the award has already been given. The wheel is just an animation.

Something well established and easily provable. Anything else is fantasy.
Yes. I agree the award is decided the moment you hit Spin. Stopping the wheel only speeds up your ability to spin again faster. And the wheel animation itself is just fun polish for a game. This is true.


But to maybe clarify my point.
At a brand new / full wheel the odds are 1:9 for getting the gold prize.
I *believe* that 1:9 doesn't actually change for the RNG ever. Even when a spot on the wheel is emptied. However you cannot win an empty slot so the easy programming is to tell the wheel to simply push onward to the next spot.
Meaning that if the reward immediately ahead of the gold prize is entirely gone. Your *real odds* change from 1:9 to 2:9
As the odds of the empty slot are effectively absorbed by the following position.

This can allow you to manipulate your odds of winning by choosing your spins carefully.
If there are 2-3 empty spaces in a row on your wheel you can know that your odds of getting the next one in that line are much better. So if the gold prize is behind of that gap your odds go up, and if its ahead of the gap your odds go down.
 

ant..

Member
Yes. I agree the award is decided the moment you hit Spin. Stopping the wheel only speeds up your ability to spin again faster. And the wheel animation itself is just fun polish for a game. This is true.


But to maybe clarify my point.
At a brand new / full wheel the odds are 1:9 for getting the gold prize.
I *believe* that 1:9 doesn't actually change for the RNG ever. Even when a spot on the wheel is emptied. However you cannot win an empty slot so the easy programming is to tell the wheel to simply push onward to the next spot.
Meaning that if the reward immediately ahead of the gold prize is entirely gone. Your *real odds* change from 1:9 to 2:9
As the odds of the empty slot are effectively absorbed by the following position.

This can allow you to manipulate your odds of winning by choosing your spins carefully.
If there are 2-3 empty spaces in a row on your wheel you can know that your odds of getting the next one in that line are much better. So if the gold prize is behind of that gap your odds go up, and if its ahead of the gap your odds go down.
Since the wheel animation is only representative, why would prize position on the wheel have any influence?