• We are looking for you!
    Always wanted to join our Supporting Team? We are looking for enthusiastic moderators!
    Take a look at our recruitement page for more information and how you can apply:
    Apply

Spin the Wheel probabilities

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
Wow, another country heard from. Appearing foolish to a cartel of self-proclaimed experts is okay by me. I promise you that I will sleep just fine tonight. Going forward I will get a great deal of satisfaction watching my city outperform theirs and resist the temptation to circle back and rub their collective noses in it.
Oh, man. If I had a nickel for every fly by night gamer who said something like this in the last 6 years. LOL

Dude, you have one city with 28 million points. Big stinkin' deal. I've deleted cities with that many points before. My 53 million point city that you mentioned? I have basically only collecting from it for over two years. I have another one with 47 million points that I play a little more actively, but have stopped in FE. I also have two cities of 18 and 10 million points that I am at best semi-active. The other cities I have, I started in the last couple of years and am only developing them into Diamond farms. In none of these am I in a guild with other players, and haven't been for well over a year. Any one of us could take a new city and outpace you without breaking a sweat. Get over yourself.

Have the humility to admit you're wrong. We've all done it at one time or another. It's the only way you won't be just the latest Forum joke.
 

Ericness

Active Member
I am afraid we will not elaborate any further on the mechanics however (though players are of course free to explore this for themselves!)

Happy gaming folks!
For some reason I find this part of the reply really interesting. I kind of feel like it is a challenge to discover something, though I have no idea what that might be. Or I could merely be sleep deprived.

Either way, I'd been in the stop button works camp for years (since probably the beginning of this event) based on what I thought I was seeing in game. I am warming to the idea that this may be confirmation bias on my part, but in all honesty I'll probably keep doing what I've been doing because it makes me feel good about the process even though knowing that the wheel apparently likes me regardless of what I do is also a bit heartwarming. Not a hill I'm looking to die on, just something that makes me feel good about my game play.
 

Chicken Thighs R Best

Active Member
Blah, blah, blah. I accept the challenge and I hope you speak for the "others". Start your new city and let's see how you do big guy. I'll circle back with you soon to follow up.
Well I got my Arc to 80 in 57 days and ended up with 3.6 million points, while it took you at least 127 days to get to 3.6 million points (not sure when you got your Arc to level 80). We both play on the same world, so it’s not like you’re not getting drastically different opportunities as I am having, since we’re both seeing the same top guilds, players, etc. GBG was only a small portion of my strategy (I literally only played less than 1 good swap season before I got kicked from the guild) and I used other methods to grow quickly. If I didn’t make some really dumb mistakes I could have optimized my strategy and reach the same point as where I am now in one less weeks.
 

Pericles the Lion

Well-Known Member
Well I got my Arc to 80 in 57 days and ended up with 3.6 million points, while it took you at least 127 days to get to 3.6 million points (not sure when you got your Arc to level 80). We both play on the same world, so it’s not like you’re not getting drastically different opportunities as I am having, since we’re both seeing the same top guilds, players, etc. GBG was only a small portion of my strategy (I literally only played less than 1 good swap season before I got kicked from the guild) and I used other methods to grow quickly. If I didn’t make some really dumb mistakes I could have optimized my strategy and reach the same point as where I am now in one less weeks.
Congrats! Impressive performance. Being in the right Guild is a critical success factor. I hope that you've found a good home.

PS. Personally, I think the drumstix are best. Chicken popsicles, yumm.
 

mogwui

New Member
What exactly are the mechanics of the Spin the Wheel in the Summer Event?
  1. Equal probability for each circle to land? If so, what happens when you land on an empty circle (i.e. whose prizes have already been won)? Do you just return empty-handed?
  2. Equal probability for each available prize, so that a green circle would initially have four times the chance of landing than a gold circle?
 

Sharmon the Impaler

Well-Known Member
There are 20 green rewards , 6 silver and 1 gold. Therefore gold is 1/27 of each selection or 3.7% chance if the selections are weighted evenly and no one else is on the minigame at the same time. It is not a wheel it is a table , empty slots are an illusion. The odds increase as more are removed again if they are evenly weighted. Even if there are only 2 rewards left then that doesn't mean 50/50. They can have a table that picks a random number from 1-1000 for instance. If 1-750 then you get the green one and 751-1000 you get the gold one. If there is only one left then you will be guaranteed to get it no matter the odds if you are the only one on at the time.
 
Last edited:

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
Do you just return empty-handed?
You never return empty handed from a spin. I don't know if the system eliminates it from the pool of places to land or if it rerolls without showing a reroll, but the player always gets a prize.
Equal probability for each available prize, so that a green circle would initially have four times the chance of landing than a gold circle?
I don't know of any official statement on that at this point of time, so unless someone has either seen a official source of info or proven the mechanics then the best we have are educated guesses based on what other events do and what makes logical sense

As far as I'm aware no one has kept a record of their spins to work this out. If you did you'd need to make sure there's as little variance as possible. That means to get a reliable record you'd need a large enough sample size of purely Refresh and Spin to see if it splits up evenly between 9 spots or is more weighted. But that would mean wasting your event currency if you wanted the gold prizes. It also might mean spending a lot of diamonds or money on diamonds to get a large enough sample size to be a reliable result.
 

Pumbaa the Great

Active Member
Sounds like you've never been to Vegas. Without the spinning wheels and sparkling lights everyone would stay away. (And the slots in Vegas use exactly the same mechanic. Fake spinning to mesmerize the masses.)
Than we as the users should inquire about giving us the option of disabling the spin and compass graphics. They can show the items on the wheel but eliminate the spin effect. Kinda like they give us an option to disable the parallax.
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
Than we as the users should inquire about giving us the option of disabling the spin and compass graphics. They can show the items on the wheel but eliminate the spin effect. Kinda like they give us an option to disable the parallax.
Whenever I read a suggestion like this, I feel like the person is asking to be returned to the days of text-only computer games. :rolleyes:
 

Pumbaa the Great

Active Member
And miss the fun every year of players being able to stop the wheel exactly where they want? :p
I suggested the disable button. If you want to feel like you have control over the wheel than don't disable it. I'm sure you probably still have the parallax enabled.
 

Pumbaa the Great

Active Member
ZORK!!! loved it.
Never played Zork. And I'm pushing 50. I feel that the need of the spin and compass are unnecessary and adds to the potential of creating bugs. I'm not saying remove the effects, just give us the option to disable it like you did with the parallax effect.