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Spin the Wheel probabilities

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I'm not saying there's some ulterior motive at play. I don't care if it's the same as every other year or if it's different. I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised if there were any tweaks to weighting given the prizes available for the wheel has changed through the years
There have been tweaks to the wheighting, cause it is gone down from 4 gold prizes on 1 wheel, to only 1 gold prize. Maybe they did make some other changes as well, but this year is very similar to last year and being able to stop the wheel on a spot you want has not been one of those changes.

Nope, no source, just an educated guess. However, since INNO is a business run for profit, and since most (if not all) players start out playing for free, it's not much of a leap to conclude that their business model depends on getting F2P players to start spending real money.
So in order to achieve that, you have your CM's tell that it does not matter where you press stop. That you can not make the wheel stop on the prize you want. Makes sense.
 

BruteForceAttack

Well-Known Member
It is "still" predetermined as soon as you click on spin....

Proof: Have someone in your hood to watch the wheel as you hit the spin, the other player will see what you won even before your wheel stopped spinning.
 

Daniel The 4ger

Active Member
I have continued to win the grand prize 90% of the time by just clicking stop in time. I am extremely unlucky so I should either buy a lottery ticket, or I’m just good at stopping the wheel in time.
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
I have continued to win the grand prize 90% of the time by just clicking stop in time. I am extremely unlucky so I should either buy a lottery ticket, or I’m just good at stopping the wheel in time.
OMG
If this were remotely true, everyone would be hitting it, not just the couple of players every year who claim to do so. And if you really knew when to stop the wheel, you would be hitting at least 95%, if not 100%. It just ain't true.
 

Daniel The 4ger

Active Member
OMG
If this were remotely true, everyone would be hitting it, not just the couple of players every year who claim to do so. And if you really knew when to stop the wheel, you would be hitting at least 95%, if not 100%. It just ain't true.
I only spent 10 coins so it’s probably just rare odds. While reading your post though, it made me think of how much I’ve refreshed my wheel and How much my neighborhood probably hates me, which then made me think if this was a clickbait title it’d be “Summer event player tells how to get grand prize, his neighbors hate him!”
 

Chicken Thighs R Best

Active Member
You didn't answer my question. INNO created this great game and made it possible to play for free. However, INNO is a business and I'm pretty confident saying that their business model depends on converting F2P players to diamond buyers. Nothing sinister implied, it's business. Even if the CMs make a yearly announcement how many players do they reach? A dozen, fifty? Meanwhile, the tens of thousands that do not participate in forum discussions don't get the word.

I'll wager that INNO has a group of people tasked with developing ways to convert F2P players to diamond buyers. I'll bet that they hold these people to a set of KPIs including a conversion metric. So, I'll ask you again. Do you think giving a player the feeling that he/she controls the outcome of the spin will make him/her more inclined to spend real money? Less inclined? No difference?
Alright, here's an experiment that I've heard on another website. Spin the wheel and then disconnect from your wifi, so you pressing "stop" will not send any additional information to the server. Press stop while your wifi is disconnected. Report back to us if you still get your prize. If you do, then that means the prize has already been determined and FoE just uses an animation. I'll try it out tomorrow when I get my doubloons.
 

Aethelcatt VIII

Active Member
Alright, here's an experiment that I've heard on another website. Spin the wheel and then disconnect from your wifi, so you pressing "stop" will not send any additional information to the server. Press stop while your wifi is disconnected. Report back to us if you still get your prize. If you do, then that means the prize has already been determined and FoE just uses an animation. I'll try it out tomorrow when I get my doubloons.
Um...we really do not need to go to that kind of length to see if the spinning wheel has any effect on the prize. At the bottom of the mini-game window you have the list of prizes that all players in the hood have recently won. As soon as you click on "spin," you can hover the mouse over it and find out what you have just won--way before the wheel stops spinning.
 

Chicken Thighs R Best

Active Member
Um...we really do not need to go to that kind of length to see if the spinning wheel has any effect on the prize. At the bottom of the mini-game window you have the list of prizes that all players in the hood have recently won. As soon as you click on "spin," you can hover the mouse over it and find out what you have just won--way before the wheel stops spinning.
Smart! I didn't know that.
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
On what do you base this assertion? Do you possess graduate or post-graduate education in Statistics? The word "significant" is a fuzzy concept subject to different interpretations. However, the phrase "statistically significant" has a very precise meaning in this context. For the hypothesis being tested a sample size of 43 is most certainly statistically significant. The OP asked about the odds of landing on a particular circle. The initial response was each circle has an equal chance. My analysis indicates that this is not the case. If you don't like my analysis fine. Instead of simply dismissing it please produce you own analysis. If you are participating in the Event and tracking your results present your data and we all can compare results. If you're not playing the Event you really don't have a leg to stand on.
Just did 237 spins over 9 worlds. Clicked the stop button as the gold circle passed the pointer each time. Wheel stopped on gold circle 25 times. That's 10.5%. On the other 212 spins there was no pattern to where the wheel stopped. Based on this larger sample size where the stop button was clicked at the same point each time, I conclude both that the stated 1/9 chance is valid and that the stop button has no bearing on where the wheel stops.
 

Algona

Well-Known Member
Please see post #82 for the data. The methodology, to put it simply, is spin wheel...collect prize. Count number of spins, count number of gold prizes.
This post?

I've been waiting until either the Captain's Anchorage or GV shows up in the gold circle and then I spin. So far, 43 spins, 4 CAs and 8 GVs.
Did you annotate how many slots on the wheel were closed off at the time of the spin?
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
You have me confused with someone that does not do their homework. The player was inactive in all nine worlds this time last week. He remains inactive in 6 of 9 now. I'll grant you that the 3rd party app is not real time but it is accurate after it refreshes each day. At the worst it's 24 hours out of sync. Aside from spending 20,737 diamonds can you explain how an inactive player can acquire the 237 doubloons necessary to spin the wheel 237 times? Wait a sec, he'd get 3 doubloons per city at the start so he'd only need to spend 20,363 diamonds for the other 208 doubloons. Or, are you suggesting that he went to his 9 cities, competed 9 dailies and rushed 199 quests in the hour between his earlier message and this one?
I do not have you down for someone that does not do his homework. I have you down for someone that does not know what books to use to find the answers to his homework. It might be experience, it might be expertise, I really don't care. Fact is that the books you are using have proven to be not accurate.
 

Algona

Well-Known Member
There have been no empty circles when I've spun. A few times there were empty slots on a green or blue circle but all 9 circles had prizes available.
Sure. To be sure I understand, you won 12 times not once coming across a wheel with your chosen prize on it and no other slices closed out and you did not once close out another slice while winning 12 rimes?

I thought I remembered you saying something about never resetting the wheel yourself, went looking for that quote and didn't find it.

Or any other recent posts from you.

Why did you delete all your previous posts here and in the equity thread?

For the hypothesis being tested a sample size of 43 is most certainly statistically significant.
And?

You left out the actual calculations and results of your analysis including confidence or the revised drop rate and any other quantifiable conclusions.

Mind sharing those?
 

Vger

Well-Known Member
You have me confused with someone that does not do their homework.
Agent may be annoying at times, but he is rarely confused.

The player was inactive in all nine worlds this time last week.
I doubt that is true, but I stopped playing a while ago, maybe JBG has changed his habits.

I'll grant you that the 3rd party app is not real time but it is accurate after it refreshes each day.
Really? You know this how? Do you know how they measure inactive?

Aside from spending 20,737 diamonds...
LOL. Well, that didn't happen. JBG is too frugal for that.

can you explain how an inactive player can acquire the 237 doubloons necessary to spin the wheel 237 times?
I think so, yes. By not being inactive. Log In. Collect your doubloon. Farm your wells. Do a bazillion 5 minute productions. Collect another doubloon. Maybe grab another from an incident. Log out. Guess what? Your tool will say inactive.
Is that more or less right JBG? I'm just winging it here.

Anyway, had to check in for the annual Spinning Wheel laugh.