Spin the Wheel probabilities

[Johnny B. Goode]

You have me confused with someone that does not do their homework. The player was inactive in all nine worlds this time last week. He remains inactive in 6 of 9 now. I'll grant you that the 3rd party app is not real time but it is accurate after it refreshes each day. At the worst it's 24 hours out of sync. Aside from spending 20,737 diamonds can you explain how an inactive player can acquire the 237 doubloons necessary to spin the wheel 237 times? Wait a sec, he'd get 3 doubloons per city at the start so he'd only need to spend 20,363 diamonds for the other 208 doubloons. Or, are you suggesting that he went to his 9 cities, competed 9 dailies and rushed 199 quests in the hour between his earlier message and this one?

You know, you make it really hard for me to keep my snark under wraps. FYI, I don't play much, if at all, on weekends currently. So if you check your source on Monday, it will likely reflect that.

Just to satisfy your curiosity, I have completed between 13 and 33 quests on my 9 worlds. Add in the daily event currency and a couple from Incidents and voila! 237 spins of the wheel! Not a single Diamond spent. @Vger proves his experience and expertise trumps yours even if he doesn't play anymore. LOL

 

[Johnny B. Goode]

I don't think keeping your snark under wraps is possible but don't fret, you seem to have lots of company,


I wasn't curious. Skeptical is more like it. Today wasn't the first time I checked your activity. This time last week all 9 worlds were inactive. Late last week there was activity in three. Today, same thing. Do you really expect me to believe that you went into all your worlds and spent 237 doubloons that you had been stockpiling in an effort to what, prove me wrong? Unlike most other events there's no advantage to stockpiling event currency in this event. With your vast experience you certainly know this to be true. I'm sorry but I simply don't believe you.

You make assumptions based on limited and/or incorrect information. I hadn't been "stockpiling" event currency, I just hadn't bothered to use much yet. I had time today. But go ahead, don't believe me. Wallow in your ignorance, for all I care. My main purpose was to provide a proper understanding for any readers who might be steered wrong by your misinformation.

 

[Vger]

You lost me at "I stopped playing a while ago".

ok. i will use small words for u.

Unlike most other events there's no advantage to stockpiling event currency in this event.

If I was still playing, that would be good to know. There used to be an advantage to holding back and letting your hoodies spin the wheel. With a bit of luck (and a LOT of patience) they would knock out the crud prizes, leaving you a decent chance at the good stuff.
Is that not a good strategy any more?

 

[Graviton]

FYI: They may have changed the notification of coins and supplies going into your inventory, but they didn't change it for fulfilling quests. I had a "Gather x supplies" quest active when I spun the wheel and the notification on the quest tab lit up as soon as I hit the Spin button. It then stopped on supplies.

 

[ant..]

Um...we really do not need to go to that kind of length to see if the spinning wheel has any effect on the prize. At the bottom of the mini-game window you have the list of prizes that all players in the hood have recently won. As soon as you click on "spin," you can hover the mouse over it and find out what you have just won--way before the wheel stops spinning.

I just tried this. Refreshed the wheel and saw what my prize was before the prizes were even changed out on the wheel. Too funny!!

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

ok. i will use small words for u.


If I was still playing, that would be good to know. There used to be an advantage to holding back and letting your hoodies spin the wheel. With a bit of luck (and a LOT of patience) they would knock out the crud prizes, leaving you a decent chance at the good stuff.
Is that not a good strategy any more?

Apparently not when you are so lucky that you can win the gold prizes at better than 1 in 4 apparently.

 

[Aethelcatt VIII]

I just tried this. Refreshed the wheel and saw what my prize was before the prizes were even changed out on the wheel. Too funny!!

Definitely something for us impatient people.

 

[Aethelcatt VIII]

ok. i will use small words for u.


If I was still playing, that would be good to know. There used to be an advantage to holding back and letting your hoodies spin the wheel. With a bit of luck (and a LOT of patience) they would knock out the crud prizes, leaving you a decent chance at the good stuff.
Is that not a good strategy any more?

Yep, that still works. I've been doing that a lot.

 

[Ebeondi Asi]

Um...we really do not need to go to that kind of length to see if the spinning wheel has any effect on the prize. At the bottom of the mini-game window you have the list of prizes that all players in the hood have recently won. As soon as you click on "spin," you can hover the mouse over it and find out what you have just won--way before the wheel stops spinning.

Hot damn.you have made a believer out of me .. I tried it not stopping the wheel stopping the wheel all the same it posts as soon as spins
However I will pretend I still can control what I won. It is more fun.

 

[Expletive Deleted]

It is interesting how much superstition is born out of gambling.
I'm surprised that there hasn't been as much talk about the starting position of the wheel as there had been in previous years. That one always made slightly more sense to me. At least more so than the stop button.

 

[DevaCat]

It is interesting how much superstition is born out of gambling.
I'm surprised that there hasn't been as much talk about the starting position of the wheel as there had been in previous years. That one always made slightly more sense to me. At least more so than the stop button.

Oh it’s being talked about, just not much here … yet. Lol

 

[Aethelcatt VIII]

Hot damn.you have made a believer out of me .. I tried it not stopping the wheel stopping the wheel all the same it posts as soon as spins
However I will pretend I still can control what I won. It is more fun.

Hope that bit of reality check didn't ruin the mini-game for you. After all, I think it is a good event, and the top prizes are relatively easy to get. About a week into this thing, I had already got a fully leveled Pirates' Hideout and all three attachments in the bag (counting the upgrade kits coming up on the questline) even though I have no intention to build the whole chain. And I only spent about 500 diamonds for 5 additional doubloons at a particular moment of impatience near the beginning. Now I see those attachments sitting on the wheel all the time in my neighborhood, and nobody is even spinning for them. I guess whoever wanted them have already got theirs.

 

[Agent327]

Unlike most other events there's no advantage to stockpiling event currency in this event. With your vast experience you certainly know this to be true. I'm sorry but I simply don't believe you.

Problem is not his experience, but yours. There might not be an advantage to stockpiling, but neither is there a reason to spend them.

 

[stooge52]

 

[Pericles the Lion]

Problem is not his experience, but yours. There might not be an advantage to stockpiling, but neither is there a reason to spend them.

You're talking in circles. "might not be an advantage to stockpiling" "neither is there a reason to spend" How does this make sense?

Is there some unwritten code that "Well Known Members" will not challenge anything another "Well Known Member" says? This thread is no anomaly, I've seen this same pattern in nearly every thread I that I've visited. A small cadre of players think that their seniority somehow provides them with the right to ridicule other players without fear of repercussion. There are what, 170,000+ active players on the US server? How many of these players are Forum members? As I type this, there are five members and 89 visitors on line, a pretty normal occurrence. A predominance of players don't visit the Forum. Most that do don't care enough to become a member. They don't care enough to take the easy steps that would allow them to ask questions of the "experts". Count me out. If I want to obtain arcane information about aspects of the game that are irrelevant I am sure I can access it by searching the forum as a guest.

 

[Johnny B. Goode]

You're talking in circles. "might not be an advantage to stockpiling" "neither is there a reason to spend" How does this make sense?

It makes sense to any experienced player or even those with just expertise. There's no daily prize mechanism to stockpile event currency for, but on the other hand the same lack of a daily prize means that there's no real urgency to spend that currency either. For someone who claims to understand the game better than long experienced players, you sure do seem to have comprehension issues with the simplest game concepts.

 

[Emberguard]

Is there some unwritten code that "Well Known Members" will not challenge anything another "Well Known Member" says?

No. However well known members usually understand what the other is trying to say or mean by their statements because they're already familiar with the other persons thought processes and viewpoint

Such as:

You're talking in circles. "might not be an advantage to stockpiling" "neither is there a reason to spend" How does this make sense?

The Summer Event doesn't have a specific day for Daily Specials. So stockpiling and spending doesn't really matter too much in regards to when during the event you do so, it only matters that if a gold prize is on the wheel that you have enough at that time to obtain it. You could do that now, you could do that later on. There's no set deadline except do it before end of event

 

[Ebeondi Asi]

never mind..

 

[Agent327]

You're talking in circles. "might not be an advantage to stockpiling" "neither is there a reason to spend" How does this make sense?

Is there some unwritten code that "Well Known Members" will not challenge anything another "Well Known Member" says? This thread is no anomaly, I've seen this same pattern in nearly every thread I that I've visited. A small cadre of players think that their seniority somehow provides them with the right to ridicule other players without fear of repercussion. There are what, 170,000+ active players on the US server? How many of these players are Forum members? As I type this, there are five members and 89 visitors on line, a pretty normal occurrence. A predominance of players don't visit the Forum. Most that do don't care enough to become a member. They don't care enough to take the easy steps that would allow them to ask questions of the "experts". Count me out. If I want to obtain arcane information about aspects of the game that are irrelevant I am sure I can access it by searching the forum as a guest.

Answer has been given. Just quoting this before it disappears again.

 

[Graviton]

Is there some unwritten code that "Well Known Members" will not challenge anything another "Well Known Member" says?

Yep, you're onto us. It's a giant conspiracy. We meet once a week to talk about you.

This is where I'd normally say that experience tells me that some Well-Known members have gone at it with other Well-Known members, not infrequently. But, you know what they say about experience.