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Spin the Wheel probabilities

Chicken Thighs R Best

Active Member
Original reply: "Remember the player that we were talking about the other day? That player recommended that I take my HC up to 78 when it was at 10. Check out his city. His is at 88, almost 89, and he's taking it to 98. His advice I treasure so my HC is now at 78"

My bad...I typed HC when I meant to type CF
I don’t want to talk too much on a public thread about what goes on in T world, but you’re in a top 5 GBG guild, and that player asked me if I had certain Indy goods for the treasury, so there’s some inkling that some Indy goods (the age that you are in) are needed by the guild and taking your CF up would be a wise choice. Also if you’re part of the Thursday 8 AM crew, you also need tons of goods once your attrition is super high. Not everyone needs that many goods.
 

RazorbackPirate

Well-Known Member
Deletes posts. Of course.
Several of you seem fixated on the "experience versus expertise" debate. Good. I certainly got that implanted into your collective long term memories. How many times will it take until you get it into you head that I don't care about what you did back in the day? None of your cities are active. Most of your cohorts cities are either inactive or very poorly developed given the amount of time that you all have invested in the game. Most, if not all, of you have very low battle numbers which means you do not participate in GBG or PvP. Some have low level CFs meaning they didn't bother to adopt heavy questing. I haven't looked very hard but don't remember seeing any ARCs beyond 80. Many of you want to pontificate about forming guilds, I ask "so what?". Any player can form a guild but what's the point? This whole thing started when I was advised to pay attention (meaning respect) to the experienced players. As far as I am concerned, your experience and $4.99 will get me a grande cappucchino mocha latte. It sure isn't going to help me advance my game. Just speaking for me, others may be more gullible.
What's your experience and expertise?

Have you ever led a guild? Ever been in a leadership position in a guild? Ever help a player understand and adopt Heavy Questing? Where are you in your guild's GBG leadership? Are you there at all? Are you running each round's checkerboard? Negotiating alliances? Recruiting and equipping new guild members? Helping build new GBG fighters?

Anything of note, or is your claim to fame showing up and throwing up on sectors that others have teed up and opened up? You're expertise lies where exactly? Hitting Autobattle every few hours and using the 1.9 thread?
 
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Kranyar the Mysterious

Well-Known Member
Keep grinding away at your city Dude, with some luck you'll get it to 100MM by 2025. I'm not so confident in the others though.
I would say exactly the same thing about you.

Please don't speak for those of us who are actually at 100mm and beyond when you are barely a fraction of the way there yourself.

As as one of those players, and a" well known member" here on this forum, I will confirm and verify for you that the experience and knowledge of the players here that you are debating is spot on, while you seem to be off in some fantasy world of your own completely unconnected to (the) reality (of this game).
 

thekyle

Active Member
I decided to run some numbers and try and figure out the weight of the wheel. To do this I saved up as many doubloons as possible in my farm towns. I logged not only the total number of prizes but the sequence in which I earned them. Each spin was a refreshed wheel. I did stop the spins when I wanted to with no regard for position as the stop button has no effect. This was an effort to get raw information about the actual balance of the wheel. Across 5 towns. I marked rewards in sequence as:
G - gold
S - silver and
C - common

The sequence runs as follows-

A: (78spins 6gold 28silver 44common)
CSGCCSCCSC
SCGCCSCSSC
CSCCSGCSSC
CSCSCCCCGC
CSSCCSSSCS
CCGGCSCCSC
CCCSSCCCCS
SSCCCCSS
----
EastN: (80spins 9gold 25silver 46common)
CCCSCCCCSC
GCCCCCCSGC
SCCSSCCCGC
CSSSSCSCSG
CSCCSSSCCS
SGCCSCGSCC
GCSCGCCCCC
CCSSSCCSGC
----


K: (79spins 12gold 21silver 46common)
SCCCSSCSCC
CCSSCSCGSG
CCCGGCSSGS
SCSCCSSCSC
CSCCGSCCGG
CSCCCCSGCC
CCGCCCCCCC
CCSCCCCGG
----
L : ( 78spins 10gold 26silver 42common)
CCCCGCCCSG
CSGCSCSCSS
CGCCCSCCSC
SCSCCCCSCG
GSSCCSCSGC
CSSCGCSSCS
CSCGSGSCSC
CSCSCCCC
----

S : (76spins 10gold 22silver 44common)
SSCCCSCGCC
CGSCCCSSGC
SCCGCGCCCC
CGGCGGSCSC
CCCCSCSCCC
CCSSSCSSCC
CSCCSSGCCS
SCSCCC
----

The sum total of this was
391 spins
47 gold
122 silver
222 common
The longest cold streak between gold rewards in any one city was 30 in my S town. However looking at all the spins as one long run there is one other cold streak of 34 stitched between A and E.
I defined a hot streak as a floating set of 10 spins to get a result of two hot streaks of 4 gold rewards within 10 spins both in K and S towns.

At a strict 1/9 odds with a total of 391 spins the expectation would be 43.4* gold and I earned 47. Which is within a fair degree of variance for a sample size to be calling it accurate, if not just ever so slightly weighted in favor of the players.

While a full wheel has a theoretical 27 prizes available, because I was refreshing I was able to get much longer cold streaks than just emptying one wheel would give a player actually after a gold reward, which again leads me to believe there is a very slight chance that the weight of the wheel is in the favor of the player when this variable is corrected for.
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
The longest cold streak between gold rewards in any one city was 30 in my S town.
Nice.

Based on your results that does look like pretty close to a 1/9 chance

I ran a random number generator with 3,000 results. It’s only whole numbers so working on 11 or 12 as a Gold prize (given 11.11% would be a strict 1/9 chance). If it lands on the side closer to 12 then the biggest cold streak was 58, if it landed on the side of 11 then that 58 becomes a 22 and 36. There was also quite a few 20’s and 30’s in the mix
 

Lord Pest

Well-Known Member
i have a lot of Arc bps. 1 in 9 chance of hitting a particular slot. The slot with the most bp has 5079. The slot with the least has 4968. That’s more than a 100 bp difference. I never had to 2 for 1 my arc prints. Even with a lot of chances there will be differences. It will be close but it won’t be a perfect 1:9 ratio.
 

DarnTootin

New Member
Personally, from experience, I think it runs like the NBA draft lottery:

1630157020168.png

There are a total of 9 prizes on a fresh board but 27 opportunities. If each opportunity is a ping pong ball, the following number of ping pong balls would be dropped into a bowl:

1 - Guard Post Selection Kit
2 - Goods From A Previous Age
2 - SoK Fragment
2 - Mass Self-Aid Kit
4 - Palm Tree
4 - 10% Supply Boost
4 - Large Supplies
4 - Medium Supplies
4 - Medals

You now draw a ping pong ball and have a 1:27 chance at the grand prize. On the board above, a Medals ball was drawn so the remaining balls are now:

1 - Guard Post Selection Kit
2 - Goods From A Previous Age
2 - SoK Fragment
2 - Mass Self-Aid Kit
4 - Palm Tree
4 - 10% Supply Boost
4 - Large Supplies
4 - Medium Supplies
3 - Medals

Which gives you a 1:26 chance at the grand prize.
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
Personally, from experience, I think it runs like the NBA draft lottery:

View attachment 19079

There are a total of 9 prizes on a fresh board but 27 opportunities. If each opportunity is a ping pong ball, the following number of ping pong balls would be dropped into a bowl:

1 - Guard Post Selection Kit
2 - Goods From A Previous Age
2 - SoK Fragment
2 - Mass Self-Aid Kit
4 - Palm Tree
4 - 10% Supply Boost
4 - Large Supplies
4 - Medium Supplies
4 - Medals

You now draw a ping pong ball and have a 1:27 chance at the grand prize. On the board above, a Medals ball was drawn so the remaining balls are now:

1 - Guard Post Selection Kit
2 - Goods From A Previous Age
2 - SoK Fragment
2 - Mass Self-Aid Kit
4 - Palm Tree
4 - 10% Supply Boost
4 - Large Supplies
4 - Medium Supplies
3 - Medals

Which gives you a 1:26 chance at the grand prize.
I play on 9 worlds and have spun the wheel numerous times on each of them, and my experience is nothing like this. I will usually hit the gold circle at double the rate that you're saying. In fact, in my test that I posted about earlier in this thread, I hit the gold circle at slightly under 11% of spins. That's very close to 1:9.
 

wolfhoundtoo

Well-Known Member
Admittedly it is only 1 world and I didn't track it properly (as in writing down the results) but my own results are way better than 1 in 27 (i'd not of gotten a new governor's villa if it was even close to 1 in 27) plus while watching the wheel it rarely was depleted of the other prizes while the gold one was still there. I'd look back at the messages to see when it was last refreshed to try and decide if i wanted to refresh the wheel or go for the gold prize (it's always annoying when someone refreshes the wheel when you are spinning for the gold prize so I like to make sure that whomever refreshed it has had a chance to decide if they want to try for the gold prize or move on).

A rough estimate puts me at about 1 in 12 for total dubloons spent versus the number of times I got the gold prize I was seeking.
 

Ebeondi Asi

Well-Known Member
I do not agree it is a 'one chance in 27. because you have only nine different chances at the first spin. since the chance to win any one prize on a fresh wheel is one in nine. only. As you win a prize (not the one you seek) then spinning again is one chance in nine. for any single prize on the wheel. Only if you won the single main prize (or all of one spot's prizes) would that change to eight possible chances. (since the wheel does not stop on a empty slot)
So the percentages go forward as prize spots are exhausted to lowed each spin to on in nine, one in eight, one in seven.
So the 1/27is a totally wrong way to look at it until you actually spun every possible prize off the wheel .and then, the added up probabilities (I cannot compute not beng a statician)
What the actual likely hood of winning is ?? since clearly Inno is 'fixing' the spin in some way, thus making any theoretical answer by probability meaningless.
 

wolfhoundtoo

Well-Known Member
I do not agree it is a 'one chance in 27. because you have only nine different chances at the first spin. since the chance to win any one prize on a fresh wheel is one in nine. only. As you win a prize (not the one you seek) then spinning again is one chance in nine. for any single prize on the wheel. Only if you won the single main prize (or all of one spot's prizes) would that change to eight possible chances. (since the wheel does not stop on a empty slot)
So the percentages go forward as prize spots are exhausted to lowed each spin to on in nine, one in eight, one in seven.
So the 1/27is a totally wrong way to look at it until you actually spun every possible prize off the wheel .and then, the added up probabilities (I cannot compute not beng a statician)
What the actual likely hood of winning is ?? since clearly Inno is 'fixing' the spin in some way, thus making any theoretical answer by probability meaningless.

Well no it doesn't make any answer by probability meaningless. It just means that we'd have to do a serious of tests to try and determine ay weighting that may be occurring. For example you are incorrect referring to the fact that it has 9 spots since the wheel doesn't determine the prize (as admitted by Inno). The 1/27 theory assumes an equal weighting between based on the number of prizes to be won. The limited testing posted here tends to point to it more likely being closer to 1/9 rather than 1/27 based on the test results tracked but narrowing it down more than that would likely require extensive testing since we don't know how they are weighting it. The fellow suggesting it is 1/27 provided no data to support his statement beyond his experience so not really of much help or value when compared to thekyle's posting of specific numbers and results tracked on an ongoing basis versus memory or 'impressions'.
 

BigBrian614

Member
And since there were no good prizes, only a bunch of garbage not even worth dumping to the AD, it didn't matter what it landed on.