What's silly is the fact you're defending them. Sorry I missed the fine print, but that doesn't change the fact Inno didn't exactly reward us very well for completing a long drawn out repetitive contest. That's what I find "silly".Well that's just silly, they've been telling you what the final prize is going to be since the event started.
So in a strategy game that has an event running for multiple days where 2 out of 10 rewards are automatically given to you, you don't verify what those 2 rewards are before coming up with a strategy to get the other 8? That is definitely silly.What's silly is the fact you're defending them. Sorry I missed the fine print, but that doesn't change the fact Inno didn't exactly reward us very well for completing a long drawn out repetitive contest. That's what I find "silly".
I'm curious what you used to get those numbers.
I used the following Python 3 script:I'm curious what you used to get those numbers.
from random import random probability = 0.2 chests = 26 results =  * (chests + 1) max_tries = 10000000 for tries in range(max_tries): kits = 0 for i in range(chests): if random() < probability: kits += 1 results[kits] += 1 for kits in range(chests + 1): percentage = 100.0 * results[kits] / max_tries if percentage < 0.01: print('%d-%d kits: 0.00%%' % (kits, chests)) break print('%d %s: %.2f%%' % (kits, 'kit' if kits == 1 else 'kits', percentage))
forgetting the actual math, just use logic here:Finished it on my world.
I opened 24 of the biggest boxes and 2 of the medium boxes.
From that I gained 3 upgrades, 1 SOK, and nothing else of note.
Even if you assume an average of 16% chance of an upgrade that's ridiculously low. And yet, believe it or not I'm one of the luckier ones.
There is a 0.132% chance of getting 4 or more upgrade kits without spending diamonds in this event.
There is a 0.025% chance of getting 5 or more upgrade kits without spending diamonds. In other words its essentiailly IMPOSSIBLE to upgrade a single Cherry Blossom set.
Specifically, without spending diamonds the chances of getting:
Zero upgrade kits - 80.95%
One upgrade kit - 15.42%
Two upgrade kits - 2.94%
Three Upgrade kits - 0.56%
Four Upgrade Kits - 0.11%
Five Upgrade Kits - 0.02%
More than 5 - hahahahahaha
That's not how you do an event.
NOTE: Math assumes general 16% likelihood in opening of 26 cases. Just enough to get you two grand prizes.
Edit: Assuming the most generous possible interpretation of opening 25 cases at 20% (which no one would have been fortunate enough to do) the possibilities shift to:
Zero upgrade kits - 75.00%
One upgrade kit - 18.75%
Two upgrade kits - 4.59%
Three Upgrade kits - 1.17%
Four Upgrade Kits - 0.29%
Five Upgrade Kits - 0.07%
More than 5 - 0.02%
There was never any chance for us to actually upgrade the whole set this year.