1. GvG Improvements Update

    Hello Queens and Kings,
    First up, we wanted to thank you once again for taking the time to continue to contribute your feedback on the upcoming changes to Forge of Empires, especially in relation to Guild Battlegrounds.
    For the detailed description of the upcoming changes, please see the details here.
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Cultural Settlement - Feudal Japan

    Arising from the Sengoku period of Feudal Japan, the clan of Akechi Mitsuhide has requested your help.
    As the Daimyo of his village, it is your task to lead the Feudal Japan to prosperity! Detailed information here!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Changelog 1.157

    Hello Queens and Kings,
    The update to 1.157 will take place on Wed, July 24, 2019. There will be a short period of downtime during the update, we apologize for any inconvenience caused during this time.
    For the detailed description of the upcoming changes, please see the details here.
    Dismiss Notice
Dismiss Notice

Spring Event 2018 Feedback

Discussion in 'Announcement Feedback' started by Panacea, Mar 26, 2018.

  1. Ozyman Tremble Weaklings

    Ozyman Tremble Weaklings Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2017
    Worlds:
    East Nagash, Fel Dranghyr, Walstrand, Xyr, Yorkton
    Well that's just silly, they've been telling you what the final prize is going to be since the event started.
     
  2. Lauramiller

    Lauramiller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2017
    At the moment, I have one city where I’ll be completing the questline and one where I stopped at the 26th quest because I didn’t want to acquire a sector. Yet if I don’t luck out with the one last chest I can afford in the first, they’ll be essentially the same: one piece short of a full set. (The city where I’ll be completing the questline has an extra kit, but only because it started out with a piece from a DC.

    It’s been an interesting experiment. I not only spent no diamonds but I even refrained from buying any diamonds when they were offering lanterns as a bonus with purchase. Yet the city that earned twice as many lanterns didn’t do much better that the other one that halted mid-quest. I know all about sample sizes, but my takeaway from this is that spending any diamonds at all on this would’ve been a waste. The odds were just too long.
     
    Edward _MMXIII likes this.
  3. River Rat Jay

    River Rat Jay New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2018
    Worlds:
    Brisgard, Tuulech, Vingrid
    I'm rather upset with this event as well. I finished it, opened all but 2 of the highest chest, was able to get my SoK and Reno kit, and only received one upgrade?? In fact, I got boost crates most of the time! seems a lot of effort for little reward. :mad:
     
  4. RosyNess

    RosyNess New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2018
    While the “prize” at the end did say it was a Level One Gong, I find it really disappointing that at the end of 60+ quests it was not a kit. Really?! It makes no sense. It leaves a really bad feeling associated with the Event and the game in general. Truly, I’m sure it is my own fault, I saw the picture at the end of the quest line, and assumed, without really reading it, that the prize would be a kit like every other prize in the game with the exception of the first one out the gate, given for even starting the event.

    I understand the odds associated with the chests and have no gripes with how that is done. But, give me an excrable, miserly prize at the end (even if you told us) and it will be a long time (if ever) before I spend any diamonds on events again.
     
    gutmeister likes this.
  5. Spotmeows

    Spotmeows New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2017
    The number of FP you have to spend is just ridiculous. Also far too many "acquire sectors". And I think 62 quests in 3 weeks is a bit much.
     
    River Rat Jay likes this.
  6. River Rat Jay

    River Rat Jay New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2018
    Worlds:
    Brisgard, Tuulech, Vingrid
    Waaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy too many FP......
     
  7. Alvadora

    Alvadora Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2017
    My stats are in:
    World 1 26-27 chests and ending with 6 upgrades, unfortunately with 3 gong upgrades due to bad timing. Gained 2 fps and additional attack/defense and other goodies without additional space + 1 Sok and 1 Reno
    World 2 26-27 chests and ending with 3 upgrades. Gained 2 fps and 5 goods and other goodies without additional space + 1 Sok and 1 Reno
    So in one world better than odds, in the other worse.
    The number of quests are a lot. Was it worth it, I'd say for me, still yes. I am disappointed that I didn't get the Sakura Rock Kit in my second world, but, oh well.

    I do need a break from events, though. I feel drained.
     
  8. Sublimey

    Sublimey New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2018
    What's silly is the fact you're defending them. Sorry I missed the fine print, but that doesn't change the fact Inno didn't exactly reward us very well for completing a long drawn out repetitive contest. That's what I find "silly".
     
  9. Zatrikon

    Zatrikon Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2015
    Done with all the quests in both of my worlds. Opening only those chests with the best expected payoff - 16% or higher - I got four kits in one world and two in the other. In that second world, I still have ~150 lanterns that I'll spend tomorrow, since I don't need another Gong upgrade in that world. I'll save it for the Emperor's Entrance. So 2 or maybe 3 more chances for one more kit. If I'm lucky, that'll make a total of 7 kits for two worlds with all quests completed. Maybe I'll have be able to complete upgrading both sets next year.

    I remember playing a slot machine in Las Vegas many years ago. If you got the big jackpot "7 7 7 7" the payout was about $65,000. The second highest payout, "7 7 7 -" was $8. This event kind of reminds me of that. First Prize is an Upgrade kit that gives you extra FPs/medals/combat boost/goods every day. Second Prize is a single unattached Rogue, or a Drummer School, or a random Blueprint, or a single Motivation Kit, or a 50% Coin Boost.

    I'm also reminded of the movie Glengarry Glen Ross: the first prize for best salesman was a new Cadillac. Second prize was a set of steak knives.
     
    gutmeister and Graviton like this.
  10. Aprold

    Aprold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2017
    Done with the event as well. I only play in M world where I opened 26 chests in total giving me only 1 upgrade kit and 470 blossoms that will leave me a little short on getting the second grand prize. Opened twenty 20% chests, one 18% chest, and five 16% chests with an expected kit probability of 19.15% which in reality turned out to be only 3.85%. 5 kits would have been in par with the probabilities but such a small sample set can go either way. I'm also sad that the secondary prizes were very poor and even the final consolation prize could have been better. A lot of people walk away from this event with bitterness.
     
    icecold14u likes this.
  11. darthhenning

    darthhenning Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    Finished it on my world.

    I opened 24 of the biggest boxes and 2 of the medium boxes.

    From that I gained 3 upgrades, 1 SOK, and nothing else of note.

    Even if you assume an average of 16% chance of an upgrade that's ridiculously low. And yet, believe it or not I'm one of the luckier ones.

    There is a 0.132% chance of getting 4 or more upgrade kits without spending diamonds in this event.

    There is a 0.025% chance of getting 5 or more upgrade kits without spending diamonds. In other words its essentiailly IMPOSSIBLE to upgrade a single Cherry Blossom set.

    Specifically, without spending diamonds the chances of getting:

    Zero upgrade kits - 80.95%
    One upgrade kit - 15.42%
    Two upgrade kits - 2.94%
    Three Upgrade kits - 0.56%
    Four Upgrade Kits - 0.11%
    Five Upgrade Kits - 0.02%
    More than 5 - hahahahahaha

    That's not how you do an event.


    NOTE: Math assumes general 16% likelihood in opening of 26 cases. Just enough to get you two grand prizes.



    Edit: Assuming the most generous possible interpretation of opening 25 cases at 20% (which no one would have been fortunate enough to do) the possibilities shift to:

    Zero upgrade kits - 75.00%
    One upgrade kit - 18.75%
    Two upgrade kits - 4.59%
    Three Upgrade kits - 1.17%
    Four Upgrade Kits - 0.29%
    Five Upgrade Kits - 0.07%
    More than 5 - 0.02%

    There was never any chance for us to actually upgrade the whole set this year.
     
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2018
    icecold14u and Titris Thrawns like this.
  12. Aprold

    Aprold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2017
    @darthhenning, I don't know what are your calculations but it does not pass the sanity check unfortunately. I approached with brute force and came to following numbers.

    Opened 26 chests with 16% kit probability and repeated it 10 million times:
    0 kits: 1.08%
    1 kit: 5.32%
    2 kits: 12.68%
    3 kits: 19.31%
    4 kits: 21.14%
    5 kits: 17.72%
    6 kits: 11.82%
    7 kits: 6.42%
    8 kits: 2.91%
    9 kits: 1.11%
    10 kits: 0.36%
    11 kits: 0.10%
    12 kits: 0.02%
    13-26 kits: 0.00%

    Opened 26 chests with 20% kit probability and repeated it 10 million times:
    0 kits: 0.30%
    1 kit: 1.96%
    2 kits: 6.14%
    3 kits: 12.31%
    4 kits: 17.65%
    5 kits: 19.40%
    6 kits: 17.00%
    7 kits: 12.11%
    8 kits: 7.21%
    9 kits: 3.60%
    10 kits: 1.53%
    11 kits: 0.56%
    12 kits: 0.17%
    13 kits: 0.05%
    14 kits: 0.01%
    15-26 kits: 0.00%

    The latter table shows that under these conditions about 2% of the players are unlucky enough to get only one kit out of the event and 1.5% are extremely lucky to get 10 kits.
     
  13. Ozyman Tremble Weaklings

    Ozyman Tremble Weaklings Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2017
    Worlds:
    East Nagash, Fel Dranghyr, Walstrand, Xyr, Yorkton
    So in a strategy game that has an event running for multiple days where 2 out of 10 rewards are automatically given to you, you don't verify what those 2 rewards are before coming up with a strategy to get the other 8? That is definitely silly.
     
  14. darthhenning

    darthhenning Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    I'm curious what you used to get those numbers.

    All I did was a simple probabilistic calculation of the chance of X# of successes and Y# of failures in Z encounters. Admittedly its been a long time since i did statistics, but I don't see why that would produce different values
     
  15. hothed

    hothed New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2018
    You don't have to be a mathematician to know that this event was a major let down. I have never posted on the forum, but I felt the need to today.

    In my 4+ years playing FOE this is by far the worst event I've participated in. As the game is moving more and more to percentages, I grow increasingly frustrated.

    I saved all my lanterns for a chance at an upgrade today. I got nothing worth noting. Absolute rubbish. I should have gone with my gut and passed on this one.

    Also talking about rubbish. The Blue Galaxy is a total dud. Talk about percentages, and going days without a double payout.
     
    icecold14u likes this.
  16. Aprold

    Aprold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2017
    I used the following Python 3 script:
    Code:
    from random import random
    
    probability = 0.2
    chests = 26
    results = [0] * (chests + 1)
    max_tries = 10000000
    
    for tries in range(max_tries):
        kits = 0
        for i in range(chests):
            if random() < probability:
                kits += 1
        results[kits] += 1
    
    for kits in range(chests + 1):
        percentage = 100.0 * results[kits] / max_tries
        if percentage < 0.01:
            print('%d-%d kits: 0.00%%' % (kits, chests))
            break
        print('%d %s: %.2f%%' % (kits, 'kit' if kits == 1 else 'kits', percentage))
    This basically emulates opening 26 chest and records the resulting number of received kits. Then iterates it 10 million times to get the percentages exact enough. The script ran about a minute on my laptop.
     
    Titris Thrawns likes this.
  17. gutmeister

    gutmeister Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2017
    forgetting the actual math, just use logic here:

    Edit: Assuming the most generous possible interpretation of opening 25 cases at 20% (which no one would have been fortunate enough to do) the possibilities shift to:

    Zero upgrade kits - 75.00%

    So with ONE chance, you at least can see you're 20% to get one upgrade kit, and 80% to get zero right? So with 25 total chests, you really think you're 75% to get nothing? lol come on.
     
  18. TrinkOne

    TrinkOne Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2018
    Worlds:
    Noarsil
    Won a gong upgrade last night while trying to use up my lanterns before the event ended. Final tally 1 Sakura rock, 2 Zen zone upgrades, 2 Emperor upgrades and a gong upgrade. 48/62 completed and 1 SoK Grand prize. I have no complaints about this event. ;)
     
  19. Alvadora

    Alvadora Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2017
    Aprold, thanks for running the script. If you cumulate the %, you should get how many of the players should have gotten X upgrades. So most players should have gotten 4 to 5 upgrades.

    We need to remember, than many who will post here will do so, because they are frustrated. Except the regular posters. Selection bias - if you are frustrated you are more likely to want to vent and share your frustration with others. Which is okay, but drawing conclusions on percentages is not advisable.

    I have to say I do hope Inno will mix up the events more. These luck based events frustrate the unlucky players. Going through 62 quests with nothing to boot that's frustrating and I understand that. I personally was not inclined to purchase laterns with diamonds. First, they were very expensive. Second, why bother if I may be unlucky, spend 2000 diamonds and not win anything. The risk was too large for me. Maybe I had spend diamonds if things were more predictable.
     
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2018
  20. Wildelk68

    Wildelk68 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2016
    Bottom line this event was a dud!! Too long, lousy percentages and lousy rewards. I would rather go back to the spring event of a couple years back with the roulette wheel. And I have not even mentioned the (in my opinion) the overemphasis on acquiring sectors or winning X encounters in GE.
     
    icecold14u likes this.

Top