SharonRB
New Member
Perhaps you could get rid of some - less people should bring up happiness.
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DeletedUser26154
DeletedUser27023
Hoping someone with better math skills can help me with something. If I am only going for the daily special, which chest should I try, bronze, silver or gold? They all have different percentage chances. I currently have 600 lanterns. I don't care about the other stuff. The event buildings are my priority.
DeletedUser26154
I don't know about math.
But I know how to win these contests.
Only go for Gold chests.
DeletedUser24787
yep but this is not easter this is the spring event the event has changed accept the change or stay stuck in the past with nostalgia
plays game to relax.... sees new event.... must stress out over digital content lol
Algona
Well-Known Member
I don't think I'm smart enough to answer this, but a little more info should help whoever tackles this answer your question.
What pieces do you already have?
Do you plan on finishing the first quest line to get the Gong?
I will say that I got all 5 and here's how I did it.
I blitzed the first quest line to get the Gong. Quest 2(?) gave the Zen Zone. I knew I wold get Sakura Rock as the first Grand Prize. So I knew I needed only 2 more buildings.
I used the large chests to get the Rock sooner. The other prizes in the large chest are so much better, especially the Lantern bonus. I decided to go with nothing but the large chests. Then I got lucky on my openings, getting the other two pieces in 5 tries.
I did make a horrible mistake on day 2 by opening 3 chests trying for an SoK. Dumb, at least from the perspective of trying to get the 5 pieces.
I can tell you that opening 4 small chests, 2 medium chests, or one large chest all have about the same probability of hitting the daily prize. I think.
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DeletedUser27023
I now have all of the pieces wit
I now have all of the pieces with the exception of the Entrance and the Gong. I'm at 19/25 so yes, I'll be finishing that up. Not sure though what any off that has to do with the odds of earning a daily prize even building. I did get the Pond today by opening two gold chests. I got a Reno kit first and the Pond second. I was super happy with that.
Still, I wonder if having more chances with bronze or silver is better than less chances but a higher percentage chance with gold.
I now have all of the pieces with the exception of the Entrance and the Gong. I'm at 19/25 so yes, I'll be finishing that up. Not sure though what any off that has to do with the odds of earning a daily prize even building. I did get the Pond today by opening two gold chests. I got a Reno kit first and the Pond second. I was super happy with that.
Still, I wonder if having more chances with bronze or silver is better than less chances but a higher percentage chance with gold.
Algona
Well-Known Member
And you still have 600 Lanterns?
I can tell you the probability of hitting at least one Daily Prize for the three different chests given a certain number of lanterns, but my skills break down (crash, disintegrate) when i try to take into account the chances of winning extra tries by winning Lanterns i n the different chests.
With 600 Lanterns I get the chances of winning a daily Prize as
Large Chest 68% (1-.75^5)
Medium Chest 62% (1-.87^7)
Small Chest 64% (1-.93^15)
BUT! this does NOT include the extra chances from cracking Lanterns as prizes in the chests.
And of course I could be completely wrong on this. It's 5:30 AM for me.
I think given the additional Lanterns you can still get you are in darn good shape. Good luck!
DeletedUser25148
Yes. I understand that. But cultural building and decorations require real estate and i have no space at the moment, and even if I were to get an expansion, that would not be enough space to build enough decorations/cultural buildings to gain a net 8000 increase in happiness. That is the source of my frustration is that on a basic infrastructure level, there is no room for me to simply plop down 8000 happiness units worth of buildings.
I've been informed that I can buy enthusiasm in the tavern--so I'll just have to wait until I've got the silver to do so.
DeletedUser25148
Yeah, I tried that, but at the moment I only had 300 or so available surplus population. Getting rid of them all wouldn't have made a huge impact.
DeletedUser26154
It's not a bug.
It's a change they made last year.
People we're complaining about having to hit a tiny little bar to get things done.
Now you click anywhere on the window to get things done.
Fumble Fingers can be costly.
DeletedUser28015
This isn't rocket science. The probability of the daily special in the three chests is 7%, 13%, and 25%. The chests cost 40 lanterns, 70 lanterns, and 120 lanterns. The costs in lanterns to get 1% chance are 40/7 = 5.7, 70/13 = 5.4, and 120/25 = 4.8. Gold is best. (It's actually even better than those numbers indicate, because buying 3 bronze chests only gives you a 19.6% chance, not a 21% chance, but I'm not showing the rocket science calculation for that). It also costs fewer lanterns per cherry blossom: 40/5 = 8 for bronze, 70/10 = 7 for silver, 120/20 = 6 for gold. Be smart and only buy gold.
Addendum: With your 600 lanterns, your odds of winning the daily special by buying gold chests are
first chest: .25 (1 - .75)
first two chests: .4375 (1 - .75^2)
first three chests: .5781 (1 - .75^3)
first four chests: .6836 (1 - .75^4)
five chests: .7627 (1 -.75^5)
Hmm ... I just read Algona's comment, and he's right that the chances of winning lanterns changes the odds ... but I think they even more strongly favor gold: A 12% of winning 200 lanterns is certainly better than a 15% chance of winning only 120 or a 20% chance of winning only 70.
Also, his math is off. It should be
Large Chest 76% (1-.75^5)
Medium Chest 67% (1-.87^8) (Actually, 8 mediums and 1 small = 69%)
Small Chest 66% (1-.93^15)
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DeletedUser8420
ummm just bought 1 gold and 2 bronze chests and got reno from gold and got 2 ponds from the bronze....so actually it is the luck of the draw.
DeletedUser8420
now all I need is the emperor entrance....
DeletedUser8420
AH PHOOIE KA PLUUIE....I have starting getting the time quests for the event...can not do another quest till tomorrow...baloney...
DeletedUser28015
^ Um, actually you have a complete failure to understand probability. Yes, of course it's "the luck of the draw", but some draws give you better chances.
Sheesh.
DeletedUser13838
The easiest way to approach the problem of having a prize with lanterns is to simply discount the cost of the chest by the expected lanterns in the chest. A gold chest costs 120 lanterns and the chest gives 200 lanterns back 12% of the time so the net cost on average is 96.
So if you have 600 lanterns you can buy 5 gold chests but in reality you can buy 25/4 chests (on average). So what is the probability of winning the daily special at least once? It's not 1-0.75^5 ~ 3/4, it's 1-0.75^(25/4) ~ 5/6
This is not exact since the distribution is no longer binomial but negative binomial (I think).
So if you have 600 lanterns you can buy 5 gold chests but in reality you can buy 25/4 chests (on average). So what is the probability of winning the daily special at least once? It's not 1-0.75^5 ~ 3/4, it's 1-0.75^(25/4) ~ 5/6
This is not exact since the distribution is no longer binomial but negative binomial (I think).
Praetorius
Well-Known Member
Currently waiting on the 24-hour production x5 quest.
Rewards so far:
Gold chest - Emperor's Entrance
Gold chest - 1500 medal pack
Gold chest - Nishi Pond
Rewards so far:
Gold chest - Emperor's Entrance
Gold chest - 1500 medal pack
Gold chest - Nishi Pond
DeletedUser27107
me too, but they mix in with the rocks for me... Boo colors
DeletedUser2802
Good quest if you spend diamonds. The lanterns you get from the occasional appearance of cherry trees on your map (never gotten more than 3 lanterns from one) and the small amount you get from the quests really don't seem to be enough to make a dent in getting decent rewards. Perhaps the later quests, if I get to them, will have more lanterns so I can get one good thing out of it.