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The 2018 Hot (Cold) Stove of Major League Baseball

DeletedUser33003

I'm a baseball fan, I don't know who else might be here, but I didn't see anything about baseball in here, thought I'd try it out.

I'm a Cubs fan, and before you say anything, yes, I have been since about four years of age. No bandwagon here!

But, I'm good with talking shop about the whole league, and this off-season I'm concerned with the lack of free agent acquisition, as it seems the MLB is now challenging their own agreement with the MLBPA concerning the structure of rookie contracts, and what those low-end dollars mean for quality players in their later years.

Coupled with the fire sales in Pittsburgh and Miami, and I think we have the beginnings of another strike, perhaps a few years from now, with the news that the MLBPA is investigating both these clubs for not using revenue-shares for their operations budgets (team salary).

But, teams seem to be making moves, albeit smaller ones, and not the teams we tend to see. The Brewers for example, decided now was the time to make their presence known, by bringing in Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, to make their batting line up one of the scariest, west of the Mississippi.

Meanwhile, big name pitchers, Yu Darvish, and Jake Arrieta remain in search of deals. Jake was eyeing a return to Baltimore, but it seems most MLB owners are holding one another back, starving out these high-dollar free agents, in hopes of bargaining down their salaries. Again, another element that suggests a strike is on the horizon.

What are the FoE thoughts on this quiet, but equally bizarre off-season in baseball?
 

DeletedUser

I think it's a good thing that the owners for once aren't throwing millions of dollars at already overpaid athletes. Maybe it's the first sign of sanity returning to sports. I won't hold my breath for it to happen, but one can always hope. :)
 

DeletedUser33003

MLB franchise valuations came out last week, the top five teams are above $2 Billion in total value. Not to say that professional athletes aren't over-paid, in comparison to more valuable life pursuits, however, they are the reasons these franchises have the billion price tags attached. That ought to be worth something, not to mention that the wear and tear of playing against the best leaves them diminished abilities later in life. A number of athletes, by age 50, can't do what you can do at 60.
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
I'm a life-long Cubs fan too. I'm hoping Theo lands Darvish. He had a bad World Series but he's a solid starter.

The Cardinals scare me again after picking up Ozuna. The Brewers, while now possessing one of the best outfields in the league, still don't scare me. They never do.

I'm a huge fan of minor league ball as well. I'm 20 minutes away from the Indianapolis Indians so I go to a lot of games. They've been affiliated with the Pirates for the last few years, so I've seen McCutchen, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison, Gerrit Cole, and many others over the years. It's been nice to see their recent run of success in the majors, but they had the bad luck of doing it while the Cubs were good.

I don't think Tony Clark is long for the MLBPA. The membership can't be happy with how things are going this off-season, especially the big $$$ guys.
 

Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
The salaries of players have been on the rise every year in MLB while the NBA and the NFL have put in some structure for rookies and vets. While I won't begrudge baseball players their due when they finally make the Bigs because they are paid dirt wages until they can arbitrate, with no salary cap and guaranteed contracts baseball is creating an even bigger monster than what was first envisioned when free agency started in the 70's. Teams base their revenue on the number of patrons who attend 81 home games while the NFL and NBA have massive TV contracts that set the cap level. Baseball also has a high overhead in development through minor league teams. The only way to achieve salary parity is to set a hard cap and max contracts...luxury caps just keep the rich richer and the poor poorer.
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
... they are the reasons these franchises have the billion price tags attached.

This. They also spend years in the minor leagues with crummy accomodations and long hours of travel for very little money. Dues have been paid for all but the lofty few who got big signing bonuses when drafted.

When it comes down to it, a player is worth whatever a team is willing to pay him.
 

Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
Every league has a union for arbitration and minimum salaries...but MLB and NFL don't have a max salary structure. It is what hampers teams from rising these days.You like fire sales from teams...? Rebuilding for years in the minors...? Become a farm team for the power/money teams like the A's....? No...? Change the salary structure and set a cap so teams are forced to make difficult decisions about free agents. Prices will drop and only the elite will garner 30 mill a year...
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
What "keeps most teams from rising" are bad contracts, bad scouting, bad drafting, and bad luck.

What problem is a salary cap supposed to address? Competitive balance? The closest thing to a back-to-back World Series winner, a 'dynasty', was the Giants in '10, '12, and '14. You have to go back to the 1999-2000 Yankees for a repeat winner. Including that 2000 Yankee team, there have been 13 different teams win the World Series since then.

Meanwhile in the salary-capped NFL during that same time span, the Patriots have won seven Superbowls. It appears a salary cap doesn't have much effect on competitive balance.
 

Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
But the NFL changed its rules drastically to promote offense hamstringing the defense...Baseball hasn't done that. The Giants were part of the new wave of baseball...Gather young talent into a corp then add pieces. Note The Cubs, the Sox and now the Dodgers (after buying every free agent they could land then trading them for prospects). The days of buying Series ala, Steinbrenner are over. Pitching, pitching and more pitching is the call of the day. Meanwhile the NFL loses customers because its a one faceted game and if you don't have a franchise QB you won't get far. The salary cap is there to manage the parity between teams and works well in the NBA...unless you want to say that is skewed because of the Warriors...
 

Graviton

Well-Known Member
You're saying that NFL rules changes enabled the Patriots to build a decade-long dynasty despite a salary cap? I don't know enough to say that's not true, but it smells funny.

But okay, let's look at the NBA...since 2000, the Lakers have won 5 titles and the Spurs four (that's nine championships between only 2 teams) and, yes, the Warriors have won two of the last three. I'm still seeing no evidence that a salary cap does anything except guarantee profits to the owners.
 

DeletedUser

What "keeps most teams from rising" are bad contracts, bad scouting, bad drafting, and bad luck.
No, what keeps most teams from rising in baseball is that you need to develop almost a complete team from your farm system, all at the same time, in order to compete for more than one random year. And even then you only have at most 3 years before you have to start from scratch again. The KC Royals are a prime example of this. For years they had some really good individual players, sometimes 2 or 3 at the same time. Before they could build a team around them, however, they lost them to free agency, or were basically forced to trade them near the end of their contract in order to salvage something in return when they left. They finally had all the pieces together, mostly from players developed in their farm system, and successfully competed for about 2 1/2 years. Now, they are having to start almost completely over due to free agency and not being able to afford to keep all their stars together.

However, free agency is not the only culprit. What baseball does not have, and desperately needs, is revenue sharing of TV deals between the franchises. The reason the Yankees have more money to spend than almost everyone else has nothing to do with how many fans actually attend games, that revenue wouldn't begin to pay a team's salaries these days. It is their individual TV deals (which they don't have to share with any other team) that fuels their ability to sign anyone they want, no matter the cost. Fix that, and you would see every team able to compete much more equally for free agents.
 

Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
The NBA has a unique capacity for dynastic teams due to the one player model...a driving force behind a generational player that spans 12-18 years..Think Kobe, LeBron, Magic, Jordan, etc. Building a team around players of this calibre, players who revolutionize or dominate the game through sheer talent, is much easier. Tougher to do in other sports What are you expecting...? Two different teams in every championship every year....? If that doesn't happen then a cap is useless...? C'mon...parity in the salary structure through caps and union arbitration means no excuses when it comes to winning because everybody has the same pool of money to work with...
 

DeletedUser33003

Since I'm seeing a lot of dollars and cents being discussed, I thought I would bring up some things unique to the MLB, compared to other major sports:

1) Teams do base operations off of their 81 home game schedule, however there are a few cavaets.
a) They give the visiting team a 20% split of the tickets - this goes back to the days when traveling the US was not well organized, and teams were routinely broke on the road, due to flat tires on buses, inefficient routing, detours, and trying to find cheaper accommodations. Since those problems have been near-fully addressed, the proceeds go to the visiting team in the form of "clubhouse dues," which they use to buy special orders of food, outside of what is normally provided, and other luxuries.
b) Ticket prices change substantially, based on the opponent. This past April, I went to Wrigley to watch the Cubs play the Phillies on the 3rd and final game of their series that month. I sat behind home plate, in the second set of chairs, for a nominal 60 bucks. The next day, I was surprised by the hotel staff where I was staying, where they took me out the following day to Wrigley to catch Game 1 of the series against the Yankees. I sat on the first base line, at the wall. Granted, this seat position costs more, regardless, but to put it in perspective, the same seat I had for the Phillies was 260 dollars, versus the Yankees. For true baseball fans, this large uptick in price confirms the old Whitey Ford (if I remember correctly, could have been Stengel too), "People don't pay to see the Yankees play, they pay to see them win."
c) There is revenue sharing right now, that entitles the worst teams to a sliding scale of money from other teams, but it must go to operations. I did mention this in the OP. Miami and Pittsburgh were entitled to $50 million this past year, and did receive it, and it goes without mentioning that they probably would be due that much next season, regardless of the fire sales they conducted. Whether 50 million is enough to keep everyone is a debate, I don't believe it would have. But it stands to reason that they could have kept three to four regular contributors, along with one of their coveted stars. I can also see the logic in letting everyone go, because why keep one stud, when you know it only guarantees a +7 or +8 WAR, over the top of the 54 wins every team SHOULD win, regardless of quality of roster. But, this revenue sharing model was not something all owners wanted, it was something "small market" teams wanted, in conjunction with the MLBPA, who wanted their players to be able to get a true check from their later years, starting around 26 or 27.

2) TV contracts in MLB can never be up for consideration.
a) The biggest TV market, by size, is the Seattle Mariners. It stretches clear across Montana, and at one time included Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. Since Arizona and Colorado came into the league, that market has shrunk, but not enough to remove their size title. The biggest TV market by population is of course the Yankees, but the Cubs actually compete nearly nose to nose with them on that front, and the fact that they won the series in 2016 means that might change significantly if they can continue to win pennants for the the next five or six years.
b) One would think a natural third in the population category would be Los Angeles - but that is not true. Because Los Angeles is segmented by the Angels, the Dodgers, and the Padres, the market is altered, when compared to other major sports and how they layout. So the next biggest markets is San Francisco, follow by Boston.
c) The point in mentioning these little known points is that the way markets are defined in baseball, is much the way they are defined in the MLB draft. Technically, all of us are all eligible for the MLB draft every single year, just by virtue of being born and breathing. There is no sign-up, and there is no scouting combine, junior leagues, or any of the other mitigation that the other major sports use in evaluating talent. Because MLB defines their reach so broadly, makes it difficult to properly share TV/Media money in a way that is logical. While the Mariners own the largest sized market, it does not represent the largest market population at all. I believe they are actually below the Top 15 in that regard. Much of what they have is completely undesirable to most other teams. (Side note, the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL felt the market in Montana and Idaho was worthy enough for their broadcasts that they secured it in a way, so that if Seattle is granted an NHL franchise, they can never compete for it!)

I do strongly believe we're heading for another strike, and I do realize people feel players are overpaid, but consider the magnitude with which these franchises accrue money. Their concessions staff are on a wage scale that starts at minimum wage, and likely crests 16 bucks an hours, when they have years of experience, and their only avenue to make more is to go into management, which is likely salaried, not hourly, which means they are in that stadium for 70 hours a week during the season. Not to mention that a number of those positions are seasonal, and likely a third are meaningful enough for year round work. I do specifically feel the field staffs, concessions, and support staff deserve better compensation over the long run, and that doesn't get talked about enough.

But I also think the players deserve way better contracts than what they are getting, to include better pay. Veterans minimums for example should come with the team paying the taxes, if that's the true value that player brings. Because even on 500K, the way our IRS evaluates these contracts, which is as if they are lottery winnings, the players pay an upfront fixed tax on the value, then a percentage of anything above 400K, and then they pay a 15% fee to their agent.

I don't have the exact numbers handy, but on that 500K salary, with just those three things sucked out, the player is left with 365K. Sure, more than enough for most of us to live. But, these guys don't have the normal lives after this career choice that we do. And sure, they could decide to do something else. It is a choice after all. But when you see players post-career who are on crutches for the rest of their life because of the toll a game took on them, you have to remember, they entertained you. They were your gladiator. Gladiators fought and died for the entertainment of Romans. Those who survived enough encounters lived a retired life that didn't involve having to scrounge for work ever again. Even the those anti-altruistic Romans knew that those guys sacrificed it all for their enjoyment, so the least they could do is take care of them, knowing their bodies would give out faster than the rest of them.

Maybe the best way of doing this is all memorabilia sold with the player's name attached nets them 25% royalty, minimum. And giving players the ability to negotiate for more? The only problem is, franchise owners won't eat that, they'll make us all pay it at the hot dog stand, or the beer garden, or even the jersey sell itself. Yea, the MLB could write rules that limit how MLB owners structure their products, but we know that will never happen, especially in a free market.

Regardless, I think this cold stove we are watching is the impetus to a strike, and it's going to suck. America needs baseball more than ever, it's one of the very few things we can ever unite behind, and it's been proven that the other major sports will never have that quality, regardless of how hard the NFL tried through the 90's and the early 00's.
 

Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
That's funny because I think the salaries are out of hand in MLB..mediocre players are netting 17 mill per year to pitch 30 games even when their baseball card shows a losing record. Baseball has the ability to gauge their market and estimate future revenues when planning their rosters and are hamstrung by rising salaries based on the elite players or stupidity by desperate teams trying to shore up an aging player core for one last run. Once one player gets 30 mill, the next one with close numbers expects the same..It's a vicious cycle that needs some kind of salary control like the NBA with designated max contracts and a cap to keep the salaries in parity. What that would do is lower salaries across the board. The inequality of revenues in baseball has long kept minor market teams out of the spotlight. NBA and NFL revenue sharing and caps has allowed these minor market teams to flourish and build a continuous and strong fan base...unless we are talking about the Browns..which, well..nuff said...
 

DeletedUser33003

The problem with evaluating a pitcher by their W-L is that so much of what they accomplish in that category depends on the defense behind them, and the run support they get between their innings.

Again, the Mariners come to mind: from 2007 to 2011, they probably had one of the best rotations in the business, if we looked at the quality of pitcher at each rotation spot. Their pitchers were a mix of HOF-caliber, solid journeymen, and prospects that were developed from within, and all fit their specific rotation roles perfectly.

However, they had no run support. It was abysmal baseball to watch. Felix Hernandez, their ace, would throw seven innings of artwork, K the other team into near-submission, only to have all that work undone, because offensively, the Mariners couldn't put a runner on third, without having two outs, and a pitcher's count on the sure-to-be third out.

If you were to evaluate their pitcher's W-L, ERA, and even WHIP, you'd say, "Man, these guys were pitching terribly for the money!" But looking at games tells a completely different story. Pitchers are not going to CG the bulk of their outings anymore, we've learned this about the limitations of the human arm, and the completely unnatural motion of pitching, that it's to a point now where to be great at it, you are sacrificing normal functionality in that arm.

The game that Earl Weaver wanted is what we play today, great pitching, great defense (hopefully), and the three-run home run. It's no longer small-ball, pushing guys base-to-base that gets it done. And consequently, if your offense doesn't deliver home runs, your starting pitchers are unsupported, no matter how great their 6-8 innings were.

I will grant you that there are some pitchers who have fleeting seasons of success, like Tanner Roark of the Nats, who had a fantastic 2016, but 2017 was sub-par to say the least, looking at his results statistics. His UFA status let him dictate a 6.5 million salary for 2018, avoiding arbitration. But looking at how he pitched, he was able to accomplish more K's per game, but he also walked more, and let off more groundballs too, which led to the scoring we saw against him. He let off a few more home runs too, but that difference is negligible. What happened with Roark last season can be summed up very well: His fastball and curveball dropped in efficiency. Maybe he had nagging muscle tear, maybe he had some muscle memory issues affecting mechanics. But Tanner couldn't maximize these two pitches in his four-pitch repertoire, and by putting more guys on base, he felt more pressure, and didn't respond as well.

If he jumps his two pitches back into 2016 form, he'll win 18 for sure, because the Nats will be more than happy to offer him 32 games. He's a workhorse, no matter his quality.

If he gets his off-speed back, but not the fastball, you can expect a repeat 2017, albeit, without as many walks, and that might mean a 15-win campaign.

If he gets his fastball back, but not the curve, that'll probably mean a 10 win season, unless the Nats slug the fences.

What will that mean for Roark contract wise? Either scenario will mean he's still an UFA, and that the Nats will likely still see value. Sure, sliding scale, but overcompensated? Compared to who?

Chris Sale, a much better pitcher, turned in a 17-8 record on 32 appearances, in his first year with the Red Sox. The year before, with the much worse White Sox, over the same amount of games he went 17-10, with 6 CG's and 1 SHO. He had one CG with the Red Sox.

He also saw a complete rise in his K's, nearly 80 more. Obviously, Sale can work his pitches with more confidence, because the defense in Boston is superbly better than Chicago. It makes him that much better of a pitcher. Roark has good defense in Washington, but not Red Sox-quality. He's not Sale by any means, but I'd say if Roark is in Boston tomorrow, he turns in a 20 win season, hands down.

Are we still saying he's overpaid when Boston offers him a 14 million contract, the biggest of his career, after he benefits from one of the tightest defensive alignments in the league?
 

Freshmeboy

Well-Known Member
And I would say that a home run hitter who drives in 40 bombs and 110 runs in All America Park is a doubles hitter in Pac Bell and will halve his production...but that guy will want pay commensurate with his baseball card stats whether his ability to duplicate the feat is realistic or not...
 

DeletedUser33003

Ah, yes, hitters rely on their card stats more so than pitchers do in the modern era, and shamelessly get away with it.

This is also why Pitchers and Hitters can never be truly evaluated as equal commodities.

This might also be good reason to require MLB to adopt more stringent field standards, when it comes to outfield depth, circumference, etc.

However, what that eliminates is the team's ability to build a stadium designed for their team, which is legal at the moment. Think of the Royals of the late 80's. They had a superb ace, a strong number 2, and two guys who could throw for contact quite efficiently. They also had Bo Jackson, who during this time there, was capable of creaming a ball clear out of the park. Who do you build the stadium to? The backend pitchers, who cover 48 of your home games? Or the guy who sits in your 3rd slot, and is likely in that for 60?

I believe they had a pitchers park, and while the Royals were on the down stroke of a franchise peak by the time Jackson made the lineup, I think their overall performance during that time suggests they made the right call.

That said, your point about hitters are not lost on me by any means. Jose Bautista didn't want to leave Toronto for a couple of reasons. 1) He'll never be as good elsewhere, and I do mean power-wise. His BA might actually go back up with a change in scenery. 2) He's going to get the most interest from bottom-end NL teams, and at this point in his career, he'd rather be a DH, he's definitely a solid outfielder, but I get the impression he wants to prolong his career, and getting out of defense assignment would be a great way to make it happen.

Look at what his former partner in crime, Edwin Encarcacion did after leaving Toronto -- he produced nearly identical stats as he did in Toronto, which proves that his bat protected Bautista for a long time, giving him the stats he had, which gave him the contract he got. Now Bautista faces fastballs he can't account for, but he knows it will just get worse in the NL, he's stuck in position, and having to adjust to pitchers who have no fear of a rested bat on his shoulder, because his protection is that good.

Too many guys have elevated stats offensively, thanks to lineup padding, which is great for wins, not for true evals, I agree on that point.

The amount of K's pitchers throw doesn't predict the amount of HR's hit, but there again, stitching up lineups with lots of considerations besides the guy at the plate causes those pinch points for what to throw, and when to throw it.

But for every Bautista, there is just as likely a like Joey Votto, who has no protection, and has a headcase for a lead-off hitter, who still pile drives 30+, and knocks in a 100. Side note, it is a crime that Votto was not MVP. I realize Stanton had a career year, and he's definitely due his respect. But he had all types of protection around him this past season, and Votto didn't have anyone close to Yelich in his atmosphere. He had Cozart, a guy who I think fits your definition of over-inflated value, and Scooter Gennett who had nowhere near the numbers he put in 2017, in his entire career. I'm very suspect as to whether he'll repeat that, or if being in front of Votto half the year gave him the chance to blast some homers he wouldn't have seen had he stayed in Milwaukee.

Loving the thread btw!
 

DeletedUser

There is revenue sharing right now, that entitles the worst teams to a sliding scale of money from other teams, but it must go to operations.
If I'm not mistaken, this is only on the league's national TV contracts, not the individual teams' networks. And that is a huge difference, and why the Yankees, Cubs, etc can dominate the free agent spending.
 

DeletedUser33003

You're correct, I probably should have made that a bit more clear in my response.

I highly doubt the team-owned networks are going anywhere, nor is their revenue, outside of the team. MLB has historically respected individual franchises rights to own their product, in all it's many forms.

The other part of this is that the MLB made their own TV network, online of course, and because they're not giving any of that away, the owners have a righteous argument if your idea ever came up.

What I could see happening is a situation where the ten highest rated games each week, across all platforms have to donate a percentage of that money into the sharing pot, on top of the national contract. While some of these teams in the upper echelon would find this hitting them more so than others, it may just as well be that some of the lowest valued teams wind up on the list. How many times have daytime MLB ratings spiked the day after the 4th.....and this year's 4th is on a Wednesday. It could be just as likely that a Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game on that Thursday hits super high with all the proverbial work "hang-overs" that happen Thursday morning.
 

DeletedUser31498

I think it's a good thing that the owners for once aren't throwing millions of dollars at already overpaid athletes. Maybe it's the first sign of sanity returning to sports. I won't hold my breath for it to happen, but one can always hope. :)

lol what a "grumpy old white guy" thing to say. Why are they overpaid? Because rich owners are so stupid that they want to waste money on players who don't deserve it? There's a market for the services, and I guess the market is saying there aren't many people who throw 90+ MPH or can hit 90+ MPH, so they're valuable.

@ValhallaEmpire man you really know your stuff. love it
 
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