The 2018 Hot (Cold) Stove of Major League Baseball

[DeletedUser33003]

Back on the 13th, the Nationals finally announced all the minor deals they made through the off-season, formally. The press conference was short, as much of the deals made had been reported weeks ago, but they had a new one to provide: Cesar Vargas, a 26 year old right hand bullpen arm from the Padres, who was on waivers, was brought in by the Nats, and in all likelihood will be a dedicated minor league arm, and be an emergency arm in case all hell breaks loose in DC.

Originally a Yankees prospect, Vargas spent time in the league in 2016, but had an overall poor performance, and was relegated back to AAA the following season where he remained the same, before being shifted again to AA. This is a smart signing by the Nats, because what brought Vargas league time was strong showings from development leagues all the way up to AAA in the Yankees organization. If he can capture what he had all the way up to 2015, he's going to become invaluable for the Nats, who really need help in the bullpen, but can't seem to convince a veteran, like Greg Holland, to take their team seriously. This has been an on-going problem for Mike Rizzo, and his front office. However, they've managed to re-invent the careers of several relief pitchers, Mark Melancon and Matt Albers both come to mind. Edwin Jackson, who was slightly reliable for the Nats last year is also coming back on a minors deal with roster incentives, and if Jackson can fit into a bigger role in the Nats bullpen, he too could experience a career year that casts him off into free agency with a decent paycheck heading his way.q

And as previously reported, this presser officially announced Miguel Montero, Tommy Milone, and Ryan Raburn, among the more memorable names. It's still a good guess that with Montero on this team, betting against Jake Arrieta coming to the Nats is the right move.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Tim Lincecum is making a come back. Again.

The Freak, as he is well known, has spent a lot of time away from baseball, rehabbing his various injuries, attributed to his very bizarre mechanics. He stayed in the league through 2016, but after a downward trajectory in his stuff, he exited his year with the Angels organization early.

It seemed Lincecum was done, when he didn't entertain playing in 2017. But now, the two-time Cy Young award winner is conducting a showcase, back-dropped against a Major League Free Agent Camp. Ten teams have committed to scouting Lincecum. And that may be the bigger story - of the 30 major league clubs, a whopping ten are showing up. The Mets specifically cited they would not be in attendance, which is curious, as they were the lead club on he Tim Tebow showcase.

Lincecum has dominanted the strike zone for many years, up to 2014, but did start posting high ERAs in 2012, when his stuff started to diminish, and the injury issues started to surface.

Lincecum is probably trying to make a case that he can be an effective bullpen arm, rather than a starter again, but regardless, he will likely have stuff worth putting in your minor league system, for hitting prospects to get an idea of what they'll really face in the league.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Some new rumors are hitting the press:

Rumor has it the Rockies expressed interest in bringing Ichiro Suzuki to their team. The legendary lead-off man is coming off on of his worst seasons at the plate, where was mostly used as a pinch hitter, with a line of .255/.318/.332/.649. As we've reported in earlier transactions, these numbers track above the league average, significantly, and that Suzuki sits out on free agency right now seems questionable. He is 39 years of age, but outside of last season shows no signs of deteriorating to a point where he has no value. Teams looking to shore up their outfield would be silly not to consider him, the Phillies come to mind instantly.

Melky Cabrera, famous for ruining his 2012 MVP-lead season, and Jon Jay, are apparently being pursued by the Marlins. The Marlins are only interested in one year deals, but allegedly Cabrera wants a two-year deal, and if that's the case, we can be assured the Marlins won't be signing him. Last I knew, Jon Jay wanted a three-year deal, which I think he's deserving of, so I can't see him accepting a one year deal from a team not interested in competing.

And last on this update, Rowan Wick of the Cardinals was DFA'd off the 40-man roster, to make room for Bud Norris, making that signing official.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Chris Stewart, a career back-up catcher signed a deal with the Braves late on the 13th. Though not a good bat, he's very good framer in the strike zone, and that makes the issues at catcher that the Braves were worried about, off days, not so much of a problem anymore.

But, with Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki handling the position in a platoon, it does seem like an odd signing. I would venture to guess that the Braves are either getting ready to trade one of their catchers (Suzuki) along with prospects for something in their outfield. Or, they think Suzuki is going to wane this season, and they want an exit option, just in case he can't snap out of the it. Stewart will not help them offensively, in any sense of the word, but he does manage pitchers pretty effectively, and that also could be important with the Russian Roulette rotation the Braves have employed this season.

Avisail Garcia, an emerging player who had a breakout season in 2017, won his arbitration hearing against the White Sox early on the 14th, to the tune of 6.7 million, as oppose to the 5.85 million the White Sox offered. It represents more than double what he earned in 2017, and this is yet another arbitration hearing, that because of the extreme result, has implications on the free agent market.

The White Sox also signed a minor league deal with Hector Santiago, who could challenge for a rotation spot, if he can re-establish his pre-2016 form. Santiago was a prospect of the White Sox originally, and was traded in the 2013 off-season to the Angels. He continued to perform well enough to be in that rotation, however, he always had some nagging difficulties pitch-to-pitch, allowing streaks of runs that did not jibe with the rest of his work.

And then in 2016 his skill set dived, his fastball got slow, and both '16 and '17 were subpar performances. Part of the issues for him were injury-related, but they were not major like Tommy John, so the hope here is that with enough off-season rest, he can go back out, find his rhythm, and hopefully his fastball, and get back to the five spot that he's been the definition of.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

The MLB Free Agent camp started off with a bang.

Well, not really. It actually started off like an NSA training ground - no visitors allowed.

A club representative actually got past security at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, and was summarily escorted back out by bigger, stronger, meaner-looking security, who were not amused by who they found.

Countless reporters tried to gain access, but were held off at the gate.

Players could not be seen, and no one has confirmed sightings, nor who they believe is there. We know for sure that none of Bor-as' clients are there, so that means five of the big names are not there at all.

While many think this would be a good time to invite the press, to get positive traction for free agent players, there is the thought circling the baseball media that perhaps the MLBPA is afraid this will turn into a sob story for overpaid athletes. And, that thought is likely correct.

Most of the free agents that are in this camp are one's that would get the veteran's minimum salary at best, 545K. And the overwhelming majority would get minor league contracts with bonuses for making either 40-man, or 25-man rosters.

All of the technicalities fall on deaf ears, and we know for sure that the majority of media are over-qualified, under-skilled staff that don't like their assignment, don't like their employer, and are desperate for a bigger title, more money, and a bigger market. Interesting, the tangled mess we all live in, while not recognizing the similarity between "us" and "them."

In other news, Scott Bor-as didn't talk to anyone with a pen or microphone today.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Shae Simmons signed a split contract with the Cubs yesterday. This contract pays him 120K in the minors, and 750K if he makes the lineup.

This is a little different from the typical minor deal we've discussed, where the player is getting paid typical minor league wages, and then receives a bonus. In a split deal, the assumption is the player will make the team, and that they receive a "floor" salary while awaiting the timing of their rostering.

Simmons has been difficult to pin where his career will go. For one, he's 26. He's missed one whole season in the big leagues, due to injury, but in the season prior to that, 2014, he exceed every expectation as a rookie, on a Braves team that was typical, winning 79 games. He was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise lackluster bullpen, and after the season discovered his injury, his ulnar ligament, leading to Tommy John surgery. He had the typical recovery, but then a legion of smaller, co-opting injuries occurred, and diminished his skill set in 2016 and 2017.

This deal is dependent on him passing a physical, which is likely about a week out. For the Cubs to have agreed to this, there had to have been footage of him pitching strong. If he can pass the physical, and replicate the result in Spring Training, it is likely Simmons will find time in the bullpen on a team likely heading for another deep run in the playoffs.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

More rumor news,

The media is getting antsy that JD Martinez hasn't signed, so now they want to wax about a market for him outside of Boston and Arizona.

I won't, because quite simply, there isn't. And the limited market outside of the two there would be around, would depend on what side of the bed that GM got up on that morning, and if his President had the same leg swing out of it as well.

I will say, I could see a scenario where the Royals signed Martinez. If Hosmer does indeed take San Diego's money, and somehow the Yankees convince Moustakas to take a one-year deal, Kansas City would have to do something to not look like an empty nest.

Also in Rumorville,

Since Darvish signed with the Cubs, the Phillies have made a call to Wrigley about the availability of Mike Montgomery......nice try Philly, go away now!!!!!!!

 

[DeletedUser33003]

The Brewers did a 180 degree turn on pitching hopefuls, we think.

They signed Wade Miley, a fifth man who has toured both the NL and AL as a journeyman starter, who gets beat more often than not. Some of that is not his fault, he manages to wind up on teams at times where their defense is not so great, so his pitches don't get fielded efficiently, and then he winds up with a loss, and higher ERA than anyone would like.

His deal is a minor leaguer, but it offers him some huge money, all things considered. If he makes the Brewers roster, he gets paid 2.5 million dollars. If he makes 29 starts, he makes 5.7 million.

Making the roster and getting 29 starts is not that unlikely. For one, he made 32 starts last season for Baltimore, going 8-15. The Brewers, who don't have a true ace in their rotation, is just as likely to watch one or two of their "project" pitchers turn in a lame April/May, and would have to call up Miley immediately.

And, since he's definitely going to be in the running in Spring Training, it's just as likely he gets on the roster that way, and then he goes right back to what he's known for......four or five innings of work.....5 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts, and the occasional bomb. Have fun Milwaukee! Sounds like you're heading for a repeat of 1993!

 

[DeletedUser33003]

The Padres signed AJ Ellis.

Ellis is a defensive catcher, who frames, throws out base stealers, and performs like a Gold Glove-caliber player everytime he's in gear.

The problem is he's mostly a lifetime backup, and that bat......visions of Dave Valle. Actually, comparing his bat to Valle might be giving him credit. How about, visions of Dave Valle in 1991. Yep, that's the vision for AJ Ellis.

It's a minor deal, and most of the terms weren't disclosed. The Padres have said they wanted more catcher and shortstop depth going into Spring Training, so this confirms what they said.

It's of note that AJ Ellis is exactly the type of free agent the MLBPA seems to be concerned about this off-season..........maybe they really want better minor league salaries.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

More MLBPA free agents are getting signed.....

Daniel Robertson, a career bench outfielder sign a minor deal with the Diamondbacks. Terms were not disclosed. Looking over his limited offense numbers, it seems Robertson actually may have a decent bat for contact. I hope he actually gets a shot to prove it, because he seems underutilized on paper.

JD Martin, another of the MLBPA's free agents signed a minor deal with the Tampa Rays. Martin pitched for the Nationals in 2009 and 2010, and never again, mostly because he lost his stuff. He's not re-training himself to be a knuckleballer. And the Rays want a R.A. Dickey-like outcome, on the cheap. I love knuckleball pitchers, if for nothing else, they keep batters on their toes.....or really inflate their power numbers. Hey, someone has to reach those incentive clauses, amiright?

Again, both of these players would have very likely been in the MLBPA Free Agent camp, and by the timing of their signings, it's more likely they committed to the camp, and then didn't go. I really hope someone breaks out who's in Bradenton on Monday, because I'd love to finally get some backing to my theory concerning free agent hoopla.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Junior Lake, a former Cubs prospect who did not deliver on his potential, has signed a minor league deal with the Mariners. The M's have been looking for outfield depth, and take a player ripe for the Phillies. His terms were also not disclosed, and he also marks as one of the MLBPA free agents that make the majority of what was available a mere two days ago. Lake hasn't been in the majors since 2016. This is largely in part to his awful bat, but also because his defensive is sorta-kinda average. That's not the kind of combination that most teams strive for. But there's always Philadelphia and Seattle!

Jake Peavy is making a comeback! I'm actually excited by this, he's one of the most underrated pitchers of his time in my opinion. Peavy has gone through a personal mess. He has a financial adviser that was stealing from him, which led to his wife filing divorce, and threatening to take the kids away from him. Peavy's life was very public for quite awhile, and he obviously wanted to focus on fixing these things before moving forward. The financial adviser is now facing the music, civilly, and Peavy stands to retrieve a fair portion of the money lost, and has been able to show his ex-wife to be the greedy, opportunistic person she chose to be, and has acquired equal rights in parenting. His showcase, the same as the one Tim Lincecum is planning, will take place later in the year, in May, after his son's school year is over. Peavy is clearly a dedicated father, and knows a lot is riding on his level of activity with his children. Peavy won a Cy Young in 2007, and has struck out over 2,200 batters in the course of 15 seasons, sporting 377 starts. He will be closing in on the age of 37 by the time his showcase comes around, but I do hope he dominates, gets signed by strong team in need of one more pitcher, and gives us a story book season. I'm cheering for you Jake!

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Drew Hutchinson signed a minor league with the Phillies, but he is likely going to compete for a rotation spot with them. Hutchinson looked like a promising starter with the Blue Jays in 2014, after Tommy John surgery, but started losing some pitch location and command, leading to a dismal 2015, which led to his trade the black hole of the majors, Pittsburgh.

From there, his time in the majors evaporated. The Phillies love giving guys another shot, especially ones that don't deserve it. Hutchinson actually does though, and I suspect that with the tight defense the Phillies generally employ, he may actually stand a chance of putting together a 12 or 13 win season.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

We reported earlier in the month that Seung Hwang-Oh signed with the Rangers, presumably to serve as the team's closer.

Now it turns out, that contract was not where we thought it was. The Rangers officially announced there was no deal with Oh, and no progress on a deal.

This particular news sheds some light on the problem with unnamed MLB sources. They tend to have great information, but the minute a team refutes the information given, officially, we have a weird moment in reporting.

Now reporters are allegedly that there may be contract hang-ups getting in the way of the Oh signing a deal. It couldn't possibly exactly what GM Jon Daniels stated, no deal, no progress on a deal.........

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Cliff Pennington signed a minors pact with the Reds, that provides him with 1.5 million if he makes the team roster.

Pennington is coming off a league average season at the plate, which is excellent for him. He's a switch hitter, and plays Third, Short, and Second, which means he has a ton of plug-and-play variety, that keeps him valuable in the league. He goes to a Reds team that doesn't have a lot of offensive support, so hopefully last season wasn't padded by being surrounded by Angels power. If not, Pennington to carve out a roster spot for the remainder of his career. If so, he'll be looking for work in the off-season, again.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

The Reds voided their off-season agreement with Jeff Manship, a 32 year old who just posted his first season in the KBO.

Manship, a major league reliever, apparently didn't pass his physical. This means that he'll be without work until he can pass his physical, as far as MLB is concerned.

Manship last pitched for the Indians in 2016, and had a successful run as a middle-innings eater for the Tribe. Hopefully his physical was not tied to a nagging injury, and he can catch fire with another team soon.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Jake Odorizzi won his arbitration case against the Rays, and will be paid 6.3 million, rather than 6.05 million that the team offered.

On the same day, Marcus Stroman lost his arbitration case, and will receive 6.5 million, rather than the 6.9 million he was seeking.

In comparing both pitchers, there are two significant differences to account for: Odorizzi is 6'2'', Stroman is 5'8''. That doesn't factor into these hearings, and certainly means very little when talking strong pitchers.

But the other factor I find interesting is that Stroman, at least statistically, is a whole class above Odorizzi, in terms of tools, skills, and results. Odorizzi has been a major discussion point all off season, as his team tries to structure trades to get rid of it's salary obligations. His team-controlled salary years are beyond him, and the Rays seem to be worried that his command in arbitration is only going to get wider.

Why no one would have the same concern about Stroman, who has turned in two 200 plus inning seasons, coupled with 330 K's, and a 3.09 ERA last season is anyone's guess. And that this break down can be made, and no one see's that Stroman is more valuable than Odorizzi, for my money, explains why the free agent market, much like the minor league free agent market, much like the salary compensation across the board, is so extremely polarized in every possible negative light. It's almost as if Stroman's height is literally what worked against him in this hearing, and nothing else.

In this era, there is an emphasis on tall pitchers, that they invoke presence to the hitters, and that influences outcomes. I guess. But Stroman proves that theory wrong, and he still gets the short end of the stick. I hope he wins the Cy Young and shoves it down everyone's throat.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Colin McHugh won his arbitration hearing against the Astros, scoring a one year salary of $5 million, opposed to the $4.55 million the team offered.

McHugh's result was definitely expected. He was integral to the Astros World Series win in 2018, and though he likely has a smaller role on a loaded rotation, he brings tremendous value to an relatively small salary.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

The Twins were the victors in the arbitration hearing with Kyle Gibson, a 29 year old right handed starting pitcher. He will receive the team's offer of 4.2 million, rather than the 4.55 million he was attempting for.

Gibson turned in a mess of a campaign last season, and that the team was willing to give him a raise from his 2.9 million salary in 2017, is actually quite surprising. Perhaps, there's a niche market for Gibson, or the Twins know that last season was not entirely on Gibson.

Either way, it's one more arbitration hearing out of the way.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Trevor Bauer won his arbitration hearing with the Cleveland Indians, landing his salary demand of 6.5 million, compared to the team's offer of 5.3 million.

Bauer had a miserable start to 2017, but he recovered strong, and made a strong case that he has the capability of being a number two in a starting rotation. He's projected to go 12-8 in 2018, but after going 17-9 in 2017, I'd say he's going to reach 15 wins at a minimum.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Another Bor-as client signed a deal.

Nick Franklin, a spotty bat, and defensive sub across four infield positions, had a terrible last season, split between the Rays, Brewers, and Angels.

It's a minor deal, with undisclosed terms, but suffice to say that Franklin will receive a salary for making either roster.

In major league news, Jaime Garcia now is off the board, signing a one-year deal with the Blue Jays. He'll be paid $8 million, with a $2 million buyout, and incentives.

Garcia was one of the top free agents going into 2018, despite his awful showings in the last two seasons. Even with higher ERA, a lack of decisions, and a lot of home runs, he's still raised his swinging strike rate, and maintained a very high ground ball rate as well. If he can stay out of injury trouble, the Blue Jays defense should be able to make his pitching performance translate into wins, on the back end of the rotation.

Another pitcher came off the board, Andrew Cashner signed with the Orioles, for two years, and $16 million. It also has a an option year, for $10 million, if Casher reaches 340 innings in the first two years. That might be an exceptional output for Cashner, who struggles with minor injuries any given year.

Cashner's metrics suggests that he's losing his stuff, and command of his pitches. He's seen dips in his per/9 stats, and his heat maps are showing rising contact in areas he used to control in the strike zone.

Even with those downward stats, Cashner is an upgrade to the Orioles current starting pitching options.