The Ultimate Prizehunter's Tool

Discussion in 'Pending' started by ragray, Jul 21, 2014.

  1. ragray

    ragray Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2013
    In the 57 days from May 4 to June 30 of 2014 in my neighborhood on world A I won a total of 12369 medals and an uncounted number of blueprints. In my world C neighborhood the tracking of data began six days later on May 10 and also ended on June 30. A total of 6166 medals were won in this more difficult neighborhood during these 51 days. These amazing accomplishments were made possible by a tool I call the Secure Scores Application for Excel.

    The Secure Scores Application for Excel is a fully automated application of the secure scores concept that I have written about in the past in the Forge Hall and this forum. To use the application you must have the Excel spreadsheet program, but you need not be an expert at using it.

    A partial view of an actual worksheet can be seen at:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/gkih41xv28...Screenshot.png

    To start tracking a Great Building you insert a new row in a worksheet and enter the data in columns A to D. Then, whenever you visit that building, you update the scores in columns E through K and press a key. That's it.

    The application provides the secure score for each of the five prizes in the contest as well as the number of medals, blueprints, and forge points that each prize pays. The secure score for a prize is the minimum score that, if achieved, guarantees that you will eventually win that prize or a better one. As a rule, as a contest progresses the secure scores continuously decline. Therefore it is essential to update your contest data from time to time.

    To use the application, you need to download two files: Readme First and App.xls.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/w0526w6ck5...e%20First.html

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/0kyvppy62o...ores%20App.xls

    App.xls contains the entire application. It has no installation procedure as such. You simply choose the file name you want for it and the folder you want to keep it in and then download it. I do recommend retaining the .xls file extension, however.

    Readme First contains detailed instructions on how to use the application.

    How It Works contains a concise, non-math laden discussion of the formula that is used to compute the secure scores. It can clear up a lot of questions you may have. You can download it by using this link:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/2qqbxw46hs...t%20Works.html

    Finally, I strongly recommend that you browse the webpage file, Prizehunter’s Journal, and its accompanying file, Prizehunter's Trophies, which you can download here and here.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/5o5kgds8si...20Journal.html

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/m6t9bidiqd...0Trophies.html

    These files chronicle a four to five week proof-of-concept study I did in late March and April of 2014, during which time I won a total of 50 blueprints and 3052 medals on the two worlds I inhabit. They provide a tutorial on how to do prize hunting in an organized and efficient way.

    If you do nothing else, please examine the table at the beginning of the Prizehunter's Journal. It may change your ideas about how this game is played.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
  2. ragray

    ragray Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2013
    If anyone picks this up, please post a reply on this thread. And remember, you don't need Excel to browse .html files.
     
  3. ragray

    ragray Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2013
    Link to my Latest GB Contest Worksheet

    I have created a link to a worksheet that provides contestants in my latest GB project with their secure scores. It will be updated at least once a day -- more often as the contest approaches its conclusion. No downloads of anything are required to view this file. The file itself is self-explanatory.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/9t9rr632d7i0whf/FoE%20ragray.xls?dl=0


    Bookmark this location so you can return to it easily.

    If you have a thick book of FP packages and you track your secure score, you can almost always win the first or second prize in any contest at a minimal net cost in forge points.
     
  4. ragray

    ragray Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2013
    The tool has been updated to work with the Observatory up to level 10.
     
  5. ragray

    ragray Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2013
    Here is some useful information about the Secure Scores App that I had in my files.

    Question: What is net cost?

    Answer: The net cost of a prize is simply its present secure score minus the forge points returned to you as part of the prize. Assuming you pay out the full secure score in forge points and no more, it is the number of forge points that the prize will end up costing you. The longer you wait to secure your prize, the lower the secure score and net cost will become, but the greater the risk becomes that another contestant will secure the prize ahead of you. That is the game.

    Question: What is net cost reversal?

    Answer: Examine any row on the worksheet and you will see that the secure scores increase monotonically as you go from 5th prize to 1st prize. This is universal behavior. However, that is not always the way the net cost behaves. In later stages of a contest the net cost sequence often peaks like a tent and the net cost of a better prize may become less than that of an inferior prize. This is what I call net cost reversal.

    Question: How does knowing my net cost help me?

    Answer: Knowing your net cost can help you preserve your "bank" of forge point packages. Forge points taken out of inventory and applied to your score in a contest are known as leverage points. A good strategy is to apply hourly accrued or purchased forge points to your contest score until it is equal or nearly equal to the current net cost and then use leverage points to raise your score until it reaches the current secure score.

    If you do this, you will eventually win back all the leverage points you used, repaying your "bank loan", and your forge point inventory will not decrease. If you spend at least five more accrued or purchased forge points than your net cost before applying leverage, you will add to your forge point inventory. There is no waste of forge points when you do this providing that you do not exceed the secure score. The extra forge points you spent are in effect transferred to inventory.

    It is is good to know this trick, especially for early age players, when you are trying to build up a forge point inventory.

    Question: What does it mean when the net cost becomes negative?

    Answer: If you wait long enough, the net cost can fall below zero. This simply means that you will win forge points outright when you win the prize. For example, if the net cost is -3, you will gain a total of 3 forge points when you win the prize.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2015
  6. Hey I have tried to use this followed the instruction correctly but can not seam to run the macro for
    I am using opensource.org/calc instead of excel is this the problem if so let me know what I can do to fix it
     
  7. not having any luck with getting this to work
     
  8. never mind I download office so it works now
    not sure why you never allowed lvl10 to be added though
     
  9. aru32996

    aru32996 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2016
    Hi, just a note to let you know that you have another user. I downloaded the spreadsheet yesterday, and was already able to note an opportunity to lock in a third place in a competitive building. It has helped me focus on the best opportunities. I am selective already based on targeting buildings I want blueprints for, so the record-keeping is not a lot in my case. So far I have only considered buildings within my guild, but armed with this organizing tool, I expect to expand my scope. Thank you for your impressive piece of work.
     

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