You give them too much credit. There are many reasons why things don’t get changed. They could fix their garbage RNG to be even relatively accurate, but they haven’t.
I'm sure you give them too little.
Every time anyone has mafe an effort to gather a reliable sample size the RNG has been shown to be reliable.
The few times that 'doubters' decided to track data they always gave up in days or weeks, whether too lazy or because they didn't like what they were finding we never find out.
How much math do you need? More buildings being rushed, means more diamonds being spent. I can’t spell it out any more clearly.
If someone is doing 4K fights in a session, that’s approx. 1K in diamond rewards, or 20 rushes covered by a single person. Add in a couple hundred from GE, and that person can more than cover their fair share (after carryover). Anyone here bought a diamond package recently to support GBG?
Too much unknown information to make any estimate of whether Diamond League GBG is Diamond profitable.
That question can be best stated as:
Is the Diamond cost of the average number of rushed SCs required per Province taken less then, equal to, or greater then the average Diamonds won per Province?
We don't know the percentage of Diamonds won in GBG that are cycled back into GBG. For purposes of the calculation I'll make later I assume 100%, which I believe is unrealistic based on the Greed I see in game and posted here.
We don't now how many rushed SCs on average are needed to take a Province. Nobody gas published numbers on this and I;ve never counted.
We don't know the exact Diamond drop rate per fight. I'm OK with your assumption of 1%, I think it's a reasonable estimate and makes for easy math.
While we don't know a lot of stuff we can calculate a theoretical best case scenario of a break even point:
.8 rushed SCs per Province taken.
that assumes 100% of Disomnds won in GBG are recycled into GBG and 1% Diamond drop rate.
50 Diamonds to rush an SC, 160 fights per Province. .01 drop rate, 25 diamonds per drop.
Drop the numbers in a blender and we get an average yield of 40 Diamonds per Province.
40 Yield / 50 Cost = .8 rushed SCs as the break even point.
Any more then .8 rushed SCs per Province Taken and the Guild loses Diamonds in GBG.
There's three different numbers to use when modeling, total number of fights the Guild does, what percentage of Diamonds won get recycled, average SCs rushed per Province taken.
8000 Guild Fights at 50% GBG Diamonds recycled with a 1 rushed SC average per Province taken will mean a net loss of 1500 Diamonds for the Guild for that GBG season.