DeletedUser
No, the wisdom is in not using any Stars the first time around.
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DeletedUser31882
...you've lost any advantage over waiting because you've used 80+ Stars.
...it is better to save up Stars than waste them piecemeal.
I disagree on these points, sort-of. I agree with the advice of saving for round 2, as a rule of thumb, but disagree that the overall probability of winning SoKs changes due to the pool of amassed stars.
Like all gambling, it's about maximizing the chances of winning on each hand/roll/game/etc. Since the shuffle tile exists, the chance of winning 0 SoKs is a probability, but that probability decreases the more rolls you have. That sounds like I'm contradicting myself because 'more stars are more rolls', but the 18 present board is the critical part of gutmeister's argument, or at least, the wisdom I gleamed from it!
Chance per Roll (rounded to hundredths place because I'm a dragon, er draconian.)
1st ~ 5.56% (1 in 18 chance)
2nd ~ 5.88% (1 in 17 chance)
3rd ~ 6.25% (1 in 16 chance)
4th ~ 6.67% (1 in 15 chance)
5th ~ 7.14% (1 in 14 chance)
6th ~ 7.69% (1 in 13 chance)
7th ~ 8.33% (1 in 12 chance)
8th ~ 9.09% (1 in 11 chance)
9th ~ 10.00% (1 in 10 chance)
10th ~ 11.11% (1 in 9 chance)
11th ~ 12.50% (1 in 8 chance)
12th ~ 14.29% (1 in 7 chance)
13th ~ 16.57% (1 in 6 chance)
14th ~ 20.00% (1 in 5 chance)
15th ~ 25.00% (1 in 4 chance)
16th ~ 33.33% (1 in 3 chance)
17th ~ 50.00% (1 in 2 chance)
18th ~ 100.00% (HaHa! Shuffle messes it all up!)
1st ~ 5.56% (1 in 18 chance)
2nd ~ 5.88% (1 in 17 chance)
3rd ~ 6.25% (1 in 16 chance)
4th ~ 6.67% (1 in 15 chance)
5th ~ 7.14% (1 in 14 chance)
6th ~ 7.69% (1 in 13 chance)
7th ~ 8.33% (1 in 12 chance)
8th ~ 9.09% (1 in 11 chance)
9th ~ 10.00% (1 in 10 chance)
10th ~ 11.11% (1 in 9 chance)
11th ~ 12.50% (1 in 8 chance)
12th ~ 14.29% (1 in 7 chance)
13th ~ 16.57% (1 in 6 chance)
14th ~ 20.00% (1 in 5 chance)
15th ~ 25.00% (1 in 4 chance)
16th ~ 33.33% (1 in 3 chance)
17th ~ 50.00% (1 in 2 chance)
18th ~ 100.00% (HaHa! Shuffle messes it all up!)
Every time you open a present, there is a chance of an SoK. There is no 'wasted roll' as long as an SoK is on the board. The issue comes from shuffle 'restarting' the steady chance increase in obtaining an SoK.
Thus, it's all about balancing the amount of rolls you have with your chance at an SoK.
What is the difference between
Spending 80 stars, no SoK, 1 shuffle tile, Board 1 on December 5th... Versus
Spending 80 stars, no SoK, 1 shuffle tile, Board 1 on December 27th?
Nothing.
Ergo here is gutmeister's strategy:
(18 presents = 1 board. 1 Present = 10 stars)
If you have 180 stars on December 5th, you have a 100% chance of obtaining either an SoK or Shuffle.
Roll the board until you hit shuffle or SoK.
If you have over 180 stars, go ahead and roll the new board, as you have a 100% chance of obtaining either an SoK or Shuffle.
If you have UNDER 180 stars, save the stars for December 27th to maximize the amount of 100% boards.
That's my interpretation. It is optimal, because if you are lucky early and score an SoK, that's 20FPs + gold more than the competition and it does not hurt your future rolls for SoKs.
There is no statistical reason to save your 180+stars for December 27th to try rolling for your first SoK, because the odds do not change. They only change when the dreaded shuffle appears and flips the board! Hence, once you have less stars than the '100%' board chance of obtaining the item you want, you stop rolling to amass more stars for future rolls. Heck, with the x2 multiplier and 14 star present, the 180+ star rule may not be optimal!
But who takes the time to break down roll probabilities and then run a risk analysis for a free-app game?
Ain't nobody got time for that. Hence the rule of thumb being much easier to follow.
Store stars up and roll away on the last chance day!
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DeletedUser31540
You guys are ridiculous ... everyone involved has been arguing for a solid month and every time i check in the argument has not advanced an inch towards an accepted conclusion... whats the point of continuing ?!?! Lol
Let me add some fuel to this inextinguishable fire by saying that ive agreed with Gutmeister all along however the 2 methods have a very very similar expected yield ... you guys are arguing over small % points here
The way i see these 2 methods playing out)
A) Hold your stars Method
B) Go for it Quick n Early and cease and desist upon 1st failure
A- more consistent and reliable --- lower max potential, less risj
B- High Risk, Higher Reward .... if you go for SoK and fail you lose a sizeable chunk of stars that could have been a gauraunteed SoK... If you hit an SoK you save a lot of stars later by not needing to hit the shuffle one last time the next time SoKs are offered
The difference between the 2 methods ----a 0.06% variation of the # Expected SoK
Ok that math stat is bogus but i would bet the farm that both methods are a wash ---
So stop bickering, both methods have merit, congrats everyone cause we all won SoKs and lets all stop trying to convince one another that were right...
JK let the debate rage on !!!! Lolol
Let me add some fuel to this inextinguishable fire by saying that ive agreed with Gutmeister all along however the 2 methods have a very very similar expected yield ... you guys are arguing over small % points here
The way i see these 2 methods playing out)
A) Hold your stars Method
B) Go for it Quick n Early and cease and desist upon 1st failure
A- more consistent and reliable --- lower max potential, less risj
B- High Risk, Higher Reward .... if you go for SoK and fail you lose a sizeable chunk of stars that could have been a gauraunteed SoK... If you hit an SoK you save a lot of stars later by not needing to hit the shuffle one last time the next time SoKs are offered
The difference between the 2 methods ----a 0.06% variation of the # Expected SoK
Ok that math stat is bogus but i would bet the farm that both methods are a wash ---
So stop bickering, both methods have merit, congrats everyone cause we all won SoKs and lets all stop trying to convince one another that were right...
JK let the debate rage on !!!! Lolol
ahsay
Active Member
Yet you continue as well. You're % of getting an SoK may or may not be accurate but...your math doesn't cover one important aspect...other prizes/rewards.
I didn't get the 6 SoKs that Satsuero did, I only got 5. But what is the two Champ retreats worth? Or the HoF?
DeletedUser31882
Eh, I like to think we are just passionately explaining our points of view.
Besides, I've met my conversion quota for the year, so I don't need anyone to believe me!
DeletedUser30852
I can see the logic and reason to do both strategies. So the only people I disagree with are the people saying the other side is stupid and doesn't make any sense.
blueskydwg
Active Member
I finally understand what you're saying. You're still wrong, but at least now I know why you think you're right.
This is my 3rd Winter Event with the opening of presents, and you (and your two cohorts in wrongness) are about the only players I've run into that fail to see that it is better to save up Stars than waste them piecemeal.
This is my first winter event, and I wish I had learned that sooner. I wasted many stars the first few days just using up what I had. At least I was lucky enough to get one of the S of K early on, and one at the last offering.
Now - how do I get a rogues hideout?
DeletedUser
I just got one from the Challenger's Chest of Daily Challenges.This is my first winter event, and I wish I had learned that sooner. I wasted many stars the first few days just using up what I had. At least I was lucky enough to get one of the S of K early on, and one at the last offering.
Now - how do I get a rogues hideout?
Algona
Well-Known Member
Gloat. Gloat, gloat, gloat.
Stephen, I have a feeling you either didn't read or forgot some of the threads regarding the 2015 Winter Event.
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DeletedUser
I plead personal reasons. My mother passed away in September of that year, and those holidays were rather rough. And I wasn't a frequent Forum reader/poster back then.
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
Nothing in my opinion. This was a conversation about SoKs.
Algona
Well-Known Member
The same principal applies to ANY desired prize. But I can certainly see why you would not want to consider that information as part of this conversation.
Gloat.
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
The original poster asked if it would it be best to go for the first SoK or wait for the second appearance. In my opinion, the additional comments about going for different prizes on different days were irrelevant. What are they worth? They are worth whatever you think they're worth... but they have nothing to do with the discussion of whether to wait or not for the SoK.
Please clear your throat... or you might wanna see a doctor about that.
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DeletedUser31498
Yeah @Stephen Longshanks "Just for fun, let's imagine you try your way and the first time SoKs are offered you open 4 miscellaneous presents then hit shuffle. By your strategy, you stop then, right? How do you not see that that is a waste of 50 Stars? The only possible way your strategy makes sense is if you hit the SoK before you hit the shuffle and then stop."
You miss the entire point. What is the difference between spending 50 stars and hitting reshuffle the first time or waiting until the end?? I get it, it's a "waste" to you having spent 50 stars and hitting reshuffle. But it's no different WHEN that happens. I don't understand how you fail to see that. And my strategy is better BECAUSE of the chance you hit SoK first. in logic, this is called "strictly better." In no case am I ever worse off, but I may be better off. I happened to hit SoK on my 4th chance weeks ago, so I was better off. If it hit reshuffle on my 4th instead, I would have been exactly as unhappy as if I had waited two weeks, with more stars, and then hit reshuffle after my 4th instead.
I've said many times, IF YOU HIT RESHUFFLE FIRST, STOP. Then in that case, you are in the exact same position as if you had waited and saved all your stars like you wanted and then hit reshuffle first. Do you really not see that? I'm baffled.
I think maybe the confusion for most of you is he had 137 stars. That day a 14 star and 10 star present were offered, while the show 2 yields 3 stars I believe? So with 137 stars, he is actually only 99.988% to have found either the SoK or the reshuffle before running out of stars. The most unlikely scenario is to have the SoK, reshuffle, both Star presents, and show 2 as the last 5, which as I said is .011% to happen. So I was actually wrong, it's not guaranteed to be a better strategy, but the one in 10,000+ amazing bad luck is immensely worth the ~50 stars expectancy I saved. But that last paragrpah is going to be too confusing if you don't understand the earlier ones, so I wasted a lot of our time.
--------------
Hypothetical time!! If you had 500 stars the first time it was offered, do you still think it's better to wait until the second time it was offered if you would have a total of 1,000 stars at that time?
I know you're going to say yes, and I'm going to get mad again lol
DeletedUser31498
Titris solid analysis. Only thing I would add is several presents give you stars, so depending on what's offered, you need less than 180. And obviously even if SoK or reshuffle are last two, you stop after one of those, so really 170 is the most you'd need to guarantee opening one of the two. But for that to happen where you opened 16 presents, show two would have to be the 16th one to open. so its the parlay of all that, and each present that gives stars makes the odds even more overwhelming for you to not open any of those.
The truly difficult analysis is at what star level your "expected" usage is maximized. My off the cuff guess is if you have 80 stars the first time it's worth it, but that takes some serious math that only Sal can likely calculate.
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
You lost all credibility with this one sentence.
DeletedUser29055
No better resort?
It baffles me still that people don't understand gutmeister's argument. I slowly start to suspect some trolling ... or is it really that difficult? Or are some too set in their ways?
Let me try with another argument. Imagine you have all starsand you do not gain more stars. Socks are offered two days, one after another.
Player 1 tries their luck and gets a sock on fifth try and stops. Next das the board starts again and he goes for their next attempt.
Player 2 waits for the next day and hits a sock on fifth try and now to go for the second sock needs to find reshuffle (which in my case last time needed to clean the whole board, grrr, bad luck, it I divert). Player 1 doesn't,t b/c the second day starts with a clean board. Player 1 saves stars to hit the first reshuffle.
If player 1 hits a reshuffle and stops and tries the next day, he is not worse off than player 2 who hits a reshuffle on second day. A reshuffle before a sock does not waste stars as some wish to believe. It is the cost of playing that shuffle game. It is a failed attempt, it it is so on day 1or on day2.
As long as you stop on the first day before you run out of stars, trying for a sock is just better. It saves the need to find one reshuffle. Even if we get more stars on day two as in this game, it does not change the argument that you save stars b/c you do not need to find the first reshuffle. The odds to get a reshuffle before a sock are no difference. In sum, you have more stars overall to get socks. How many socks you get in the end is based on luck. Not whether you try the first day or wait for second day. Starting on first day just saves some stars.
And autocorrect corrects sock into sock and I keep that out of amusement. Enjoy all your socks.
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Salsuero
Well-Known Member
Or could it be we don't agree? Nah... couldn't be that.
The entire proposition is based on an unknown. You don't know that you will get the SoK on the 1st, 5th, or 17th present... or even at all if you hit the Shuffle All before it. You have no way of knowing if and when it will hit. So... rather than spend any early, I choose to save them and spend them later. Because if I get the Shuffle All on the 17th present and the 18th one was the SoK, I would have lost 153 stars. Since I can't know that I will not have that bad luck, I'd rather not risk those 153 stars now and would rather wait to risk them for the later one where I know I will get an SoK at least once. Spending 153 and having bad luck again on the second appearance and thus needing those 153 to overcome that horrendous luck is the issue. This is not a difficult concept. It's just one that people who swear by statistics think they can beat. Luck isn't governed by statistics. It is merely explained by them.
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DeletedUser29055
You did NOT loose stars. The statistics are not different if you split the stars on one or two days as long as you stop early enough on day 1 before you runout of stars to either hit a sock or reshuffle.
If I have 1000 stars and use 500 on day 1 an d500on day 2 or all on day 2 does NOT make a difference. Your luck isn't better or worse on day 2.
If I have 1000 stars and use 500 on day 1 an d500on day 2 or all on day 2 does NOT make a difference. Your luck isn't better or worse on day 2.
Salsuero
Well-Known Member
I agree. I kept them tightly locked up in my star container.
I'm done hearing this because you are not understanding that you can keep spending if you have more stars to overcome a string of bad luck and you can't if you spent some early and simply stopped because you didn't hit. I have posted proof of this as my last SoK required the extra stars I would have spent trying to get the one on the first day... if I didn't get one, but spent just 20 stars, I would not have been able to continue for my 6th SoK the second time and would have had to settle for 5 only. I have my proof. I don't care about your statistics.