Great post! A couple comments..
Their probabilities are exactly the same.
Other tips: 1) put KCs in incorrect columns, and 2) in Rounds 2-4 avoid duplicating your guesses in multiple columns if you can avoid it. For example, consider a 4-option encounter where you have 1 Correct (a good), 2 Wrong Person (a different good and coins) and two Incorrect (Supplies). You still can guess either good and coins. For the 2 "incorrect" supply guesses in Round 1, avoid guessing coins on both (or one of the goods for both).
Yours is the most valuable info in the thread from what I know of statistics. I have a question that can help narrow down a simpler method.
So say you have a 6 choice encounter. You get 3 incorrect and two wrong.
You now have one UC. So you put it under one of the wrong choice slots. This leaves you with 4 slots and two KC’s.
3 of the slots are previously “Incorrect” and 1 is a “Wrong Person”.
So the two items that were wrong person choices now go under two of the incorrect slots as you mention. Is there any way to prioritize our choices at that point as we can’t avoid having 2 doubles at that point since our UUC is always supposed to go under the wrong person choice we put it there. Should we then also put it in one of the incorrect slots so we don’t have a double under an incorrect slot and let the other wrong person choice get doubled there?
I think a really simple guide could be done for this. I had found one here, but it was burried in another thread and can’t find it.
Basically we have KC and UC. A UC is by definition unused. Had it been used it would be either a Wrong Person or Incorrect. We’d have our answer.
All that’s needed is a set of rules and then which prioritize over the others.
Something like:
-KC’s go under Incorrect
-UC’s go under Wrong Person
-In your second through fourth turns avoid doubles where possible prioritizing not doing it under Incorrect over Wrong Choice (this is what I’m asking about and don’t know if it would be correct or not)
-Prioritize bringing out UUC’s even before laying down an item you know is correct as it’s more valuable to eliminate more items
-Recognize when you have all 5 KC’s come out. This wouldn’t have to be all on the first turn as the guide mentions?
-Work from lowest to highest probabilities
My only questions would be where to prioritize avoiding doubles and if it’s only more relevant to incorrect collums and possibly if certain actions trump others in all cases.