It's just as likely that another player could track the same thing and get 1-3% over, and you know it.
As luck would have it, I‘ve been collecting ToR samples from several cities since CDMark posted their data. I’ll even share it for you. I was going to save it for a Christmas present once it reached 10K, but it’s close enough.
I’ve added the 99% confidence intervals (lower, upper, width), as well as tracked how each entry performed relative to expected value after Lord Pest‘s assertion that their outcomes weren’t being evenly distributed above and below expected value. There are several troubling findings (Skip this part if you are a statistics expert and want to draw your own subjective opinions about the data).
- Three of the tracked levels are already performing outside of the 99% confidence interval (note that most data analysis is only run against 95% confidence). Several others are approaching the outer spectrum and just need another month or so of values to shrink the width.
- The overall total value is already outside of the 99% confidence interval.
- Only one level is exceeding expectation.
- The distribution of the results versus expected value should roughly be about 11% hitting expectation, 44.5% below, and 44.5% above. The actual results are heavily weighted to underperformance with about 62% of the results being below expectation and only 24% above.
- The average relic gap for the misses is 3.5, while the average relic gap for the overages is 2.5.
- The total performance is 2.4 points under advertisement (in real value not as a percentage), well outside of statistical variance for this quantity (basically double), and it’s caused a 7.5% reduction in relics.
Coupled with CDMark’s data and even Lord Pest’s assertions, there is clearly something up with relic generation. Maybe RNG, maybe a table, maybe bad code, maybe something else.
Now, what I can’t predict is which worn-out response will be used to rebut this data, maybe:
-what about the millions of other ToR hits
-you need to sample at least 100,000
-this is just a bunch of bad luck on top of more bad luck and more bad luck that just happened to be tracked
-what about the one level that is overperforming
-its only off a couple percent, that doesn't prove anything, it will get closer if you just keep tracking
-obfuscation!
-gee, maybe there is something to this probability theory stuff, I think I might take the time to learn more about that and see if it could be used to explain why things happen in chance events and provide more constructive feedback to misguided individuals in the future
Ok, so one of those is off the table…….