DeletedUser24459
26 pulls is not a very large sample size. I would think, over 10 worlds, there would be more pulls. I have had that many over 4 worlds without buying any eggs.
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DeletedUser8152
Great, lets see what we get. We can test the hypothesis that the FoE stated percentages are correct. In that case, the expected average number of awards for 26 pulls is
The standard deviation for each award would be approximately the square root of those numbers (using the binomial distribution and approximating the probabilities as independent). So we can calculate the chi-square value for your observation as
chi2 = sum { [ (your value) - (expected value) ]^2 } / (expected value)
When I do this I get chi2 = 9.3. That's a measure of how unlikely your observation is, the bigger the chi2 value the less likely it is.
So you can look up a table that tells you how likely you are to get chi2 = 9.3 or larger, given that you have 8 categories you are observing. For instance, http://passel.unl.edu/Image/Namuth-CovertDeana956176274/chi-sqaure distribution table.PNG
This suggests that for 8 items (or degrees of freedom), the probability to get chi2 = 9.3 or larger is between 25% and 50%, so maybe 33%.
That means that about once out of every three trials (of 26 pulls each), you would expect to get results that look as far off as yours. So you were a bit unlucky, but not exceptionally so, and your data don't give any strong basis for claiming the FoE stated probabilities are incorrect.
That was a good exercise, I am glad that you shared your results.
DeletedUser8420
my humble opinion
SCAM ....SPAM....THIS YEAR THE EVENT SUCKS....
SCAM ....SPAM....THIS YEAR THE EVENT SUCKS....
DeletedUser3679
So I'm curious, you have claimed that our math is wrong, but I haven't actually seen your answer to the question: If there is a 25% chance to get a rogue hideout every time you open a chest, what do you think is the probability to have not gotten any hideouts after opening six chests?
If you actually have a different answer for that than 17.8%, then I sense the opportunity for a small wager to settle the issue
How about the loser of the bet stop posting? Or a really large bet, and I would like half of the action, jaelis.
DeletedUser13942
I dont give a rip about the math, I have worthless colorguard camps cluttering my inventory plus the new shrine of inferiority that will never be built, the daily prizes I give a **** about are rare and their idea of a "sale" was an insult to anyone except the most frivolous spender.
I was going through this weeks paycheck budget and had originally had a purchase scribbled in, but quickly scribbled it back out for fear that some nimrod would think it was an event related purchase, when in fact it was tagged for some expansions and buildings I want. But alas I'll spend it on my other game, so I guess I cast my vote with my money, and I voted for the competition this morning. (and have for about 2 months now)
I was going through this weeks paycheck budget and had originally had a purchase scribbled in, but quickly scribbled it back out for fear that some nimrod would think it was an event related purchase, when in fact it was tagged for some expansions and buildings I want. But alas I'll spend it on my other game, so I guess I cast my vote with my money, and I voted for the competition this morning. (and have for about 2 months now)
DeletedUser25354
LOL haven't opened up a chest in 4 days now some real bad prizes, and not to mention some of the prizes in these chest are TERRIBLE too.
Major let down from Inno. I could of done a way better job planning this out.
Major let down from Inno. I could of done a way better job planning this out.
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DeletedUser9433
I play in 5 worlds, opened one gold chest in all 5 and got 400 diamonds and one color guard camp. Keep pulling Stevie, you made my odds go up.
DeletedUser10789
Nice Jenny and you are on my FL in my primary world too. Congrads and I am happy for you. Seriously.
I have NO issues paying for a game that I enjoy playing and I have stated in the past just that. I enjoy this game very much and I support it anyway I can. I have ONLY taken to the forums when a need or issue arises. Like this one. As you know of me in H world Jenny. I am the co-leader of a guild there and we have many tutorials for many things there, just ask anyone in our guild, we have over 70 who will tell you the truth.
That said, whenever we have an event I take to Beta to try to find ways to help my fellow friends and guild mates. This is how I do it. I had an Easter Event Tutorial for the last years event and since they changed it this year, let's just say all heck has broken out with the lack of creativity with it. I am now at a point in the game where it is very fun for me. I enjoy helping people grow in the game and I do my best to provide them with great advice on how to advance quickly and what to make and what to avoid. I did this the hard way by learning myself and other very high level players gave me great advice, so this is my way to give back now. I accept that role and I enjoy giving back or paying it forward. I do have a heart and I am NOT here to knock a game I like and enjoy. I only tried my best to give great advice as to how to make it better for everyone and for all to have a great event with. Like anything in life, if there is value there, people will spend money on that item and they will even spend more as well. If you like and enjoy something, you will be back to spend more.
Now, this is the sad part that I shared with a fellow guild mate. I went and made this SAD statement, but I HOPE I AM WRONG. A newer player asked if I thought the Rogue Hideout would be back again and I said, sadly NO. For this, I hope I am really wrong. I hope they come back again and one guild mate said, they missed it and were not able to get it then. I went on to explain my theory as to why I thought all the good prizes came out so fast and we will get bad prizes later in the event. AGAIN, I hope I am wrong. Well, if you look at the Wiki, it says all the daily quests that are coming will have a higher egg value with more and more eggs to come out. That means one thing, more people/players, will have more eggs to spend. Why would the game want to put out better prizes later, when player will NOT be forced to buy eggs with their diamonds.? Simple, more eggs = more egg supply which will equal worse daily prizes later. There will be little to no enticement for people to pay up for items they will want, if they have a big supply of eggs to work with. But again, I feel the numbers are off, in my case and should I open another 26 gold chest, what will my results be. But you can be assured it will probably not happen as I do not plan on doing it again. It was a waste of the eggs and I will just horde them and wait until the end.
They could always pop a DIAMOND SALE on the 2nd to last day of the event and then offer Rogue Hideout's too to entice players to spend money to get them. I could see that happening, but we never know. My Sales and Marketing background tells me, the good prizes are few and far between if anymore even come out. But if you see a sale again, you know what it means, like I do. Also, they might just offer the Rogue Hideouts on the second to last day or the last day. Again, we wait to see what happens next.
Someone spoke about a bet before, you see all I wrote, I am willing to bet on anything I have posted and said, PERIOD. Call me out, I will back it up 1000% and I am not scared either. What are we playing for.? I am in. I just made 2 bold predictions, the question is, am I right.? Or do you want to call me crazy and think I know not what I speak of. Simple business everyone.
Steve - LordStevie
I have NO issues paying for a game that I enjoy playing and I have stated in the past just that. I enjoy this game very much and I support it anyway I can. I have ONLY taken to the forums when a need or issue arises. Like this one. As you know of me in H world Jenny. I am the co-leader of a guild there and we have many tutorials for many things there, just ask anyone in our guild, we have over 70 who will tell you the truth.
That said, whenever we have an event I take to Beta to try to find ways to help my fellow friends and guild mates. This is how I do it. I had an Easter Event Tutorial for the last years event and since they changed it this year, let's just say all heck has broken out with the lack of creativity with it. I am now at a point in the game where it is very fun for me. I enjoy helping people grow in the game and I do my best to provide them with great advice on how to advance quickly and what to make and what to avoid. I did this the hard way by learning myself and other very high level players gave me great advice, so this is my way to give back now. I accept that role and I enjoy giving back or paying it forward. I do have a heart and I am NOT here to knock a game I like and enjoy. I only tried my best to give great advice as to how to make it better for everyone and for all to have a great event with. Like anything in life, if there is value there, people will spend money on that item and they will even spend more as well. If you like and enjoy something, you will be back to spend more.
Now, this is the sad part that I shared with a fellow guild mate. I went and made this SAD statement, but I HOPE I AM WRONG. A newer player asked if I thought the Rogue Hideout would be back again and I said, sadly NO. For this, I hope I am really wrong. I hope they come back again and one guild mate said, they missed it and were not able to get it then. I went on to explain my theory as to why I thought all the good prizes came out so fast and we will get bad prizes later in the event. AGAIN, I hope I am wrong. Well, if you look at the Wiki, it says all the daily quests that are coming will have a higher egg value with more and more eggs to come out. That means one thing, more people/players, will have more eggs to spend. Why would the game want to put out better prizes later, when player will NOT be forced to buy eggs with their diamonds.? Simple, more eggs = more egg supply which will equal worse daily prizes later. There will be little to no enticement for people to pay up for items they will want, if they have a big supply of eggs to work with. But again, I feel the numbers are off, in my case and should I open another 26 gold chest, what will my results be. But you can be assured it will probably not happen as I do not plan on doing it again. It was a waste of the eggs and I will just horde them and wait until the end.
They could always pop a DIAMOND SALE on the 2nd to last day of the event and then offer Rogue Hideout's too to entice players to spend money to get them. I could see that happening, but we never know. My Sales and Marketing background tells me, the good prizes are few and far between if anymore even come out. But if you see a sale again, you know what it means, like I do. Also, they might just offer the Rogue Hideouts on the second to last day or the last day. Again, we wait to see what happens next.
Someone spoke about a bet before, you see all I wrote, I am willing to bet on anything I have posted and said, PERIOD. Call me out, I will back it up 1000% and I am not scared either. What are we playing for.? I am in. I just made 2 bold predictions, the question is, am I right.? Or do you want to call me crazy and think I know not what I speak of. Simple business everyone.
Steve - LordStevie
DeletedUser10789
Wow Beesharps, very nice. Of my 10 worlds I diamond farm, I had at least 240 eggs on each, so I was able to get nearly 2 per world, until I hit a few 200 eggs many times and allowed me to open more gold chests too.
Still, you must be running 90%, nearly. You are welcome by the way, you took my odds (they say we all have) off of me. :-(
180 eggs per world is only 1 Gold Chest at 120 eggs each.
So, if my math serves me right, 10 worlds = 10 gold chest (1 each world) and you got 9 - 100 Diamonds. WOW, impressive.
90%, wow, go play the lottery right now.
Still, you must be running 90%, nearly. You are welcome by the way, you took my odds (they say we all have) off of me. :-(
180 eggs per world is only 1 Gold Chest at 120 eggs each.
So, if my math serves me right, 10 worlds = 10 gold chest (1 each world) and you got 9 - 100 Diamonds. WOW, impressive.
90%, wow, go play the lottery right now.
allupinya
Member
Okay jaelis, I didn't want to do this, but I'm going to have to put my foot down and ask that you refrain from posting mathematical equations, as it causes my brain to hurt and smoke to come out of my ears, which makes the wife nervous and scares the heck out of my kids.
DeletedUser8152
Sorry I'll use spoiler tags next time
DeletedUser24645
I cannot complete an event quest without spending diamonds. I do not have any decorations available in my current age except for the premium one because I am not advanced enough in the tech tree in the future era. There should be an option for lower age decorations or if not I should be reimbursed for the 450 diamonds I am going to have to spend to proceed.
DeletedUser9184
Are you reading from the wiki? Because the quest does give you the option to build 3 from the previous age
Andre.Andre
New Member
Your answer is wrong. On server 5 i start the future era and in the today quest i have: "Build 3 decoration from your age.". I build 3 deco from Tomorrow age, but nothink, the quest is on...... I can't build because i need about 300 FP and 1200 goods !!!!! THANKS INNO for your crap!Are you reading from the wiki? Because the quest does give you the option to build 3 from the previous age
DeletedUser10415
And here's the point where Inno is forcing players to buy diamonds if they want to continue the event. 3 Lichen Lamps will only set you back 450 diamonds, Andre.Andre.
Andre.Andre
New Member
i will not spend 450 diamonds for this crap. Maybe i will leave the game, it's more plausible!
DeletedUser25407
Could not agree more....I will not spend money to buy diamonds to be used to buy decorations.....not fair.....I guess my Easter Hunt ends now. Further, you should not get doubles....once you receive an item it should get removed off the list and not repeated.
DeletedUser9184
This is what I got on the EN server:
Now that I think about it, It was different on another server: I was in the CE and built a CE deco, and that counted for only 1/3 of the quest...
Andre.Andre
New Member
this is on server 5 and server 4 , US . So, this is an discrimination?
this is on server 5 and server 4 , US . So, this is an discrimination?This is what I got on the EN server:
Now that I think about it, It was different on another server: I was in the CE and built a CE deco, and that counted for only 1/3 of the quest...
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DeletedUser13838
An alternative is to buy a lot of fps to get to climate control. How many coins and fp packs do you have saved up?