DeletedUser24459
26 pulls is not a very large sample size. I would think, over 10 worlds, there would be more pulls. I have had that many over 4 worlds without buying any eggs.
Great, lets see what we get. We can test the hypothesis that the FoE stated percentages are correct. In that case, the expected average number of awards for 26 pulls isThere you have it, 26 Gold Chests Opened on 10 different worlds for a breakdown as follows:
6 - Foeberge Shop ( 14% chance ) ---- 6/26 or 23 %
6 - 200 Eggs ( 13% chance ) ---- 6/26 or 23%
5 - 2 Observatory Blue Prints ( 11% chance) ---- 5/26 or 19.2%
3 - Color Guard Camps ( 14% chance ) ---- 3/26 or 11.5%
3 - 100 Diamonds ( 25% chance ) ---- 3/26 or 11.5%
2 - Renovation Kits ( 10% chance ) ---- 2/26 or 7.6%
1 - 1 Large Forge Point Package ( 6% ) --- 1/26 or 3.8%
The standard deviation for each award would be approximately the square root of those numbers (using the binomial distribution and approximating the probabilities as independent). So we can calculate the chi-square value for your observation as3.6 - Foeberge Shop
3.4 - 200 Eggs
2.9 - 2 Observatory Blue Prints
3.6 - Color Guard Camps
6.5 - 100 Diamonds
2.6 - Renovation Kits
1.6 - 1 Large Forge Point Package
1.8 - 120 eggs
So I'm curious, you have claimed that our math is wrong, but I haven't actually seen your answer to the question: If there is a 25% chance to get a rogue hideout every time you open a chest, what do you think is the probability to have not gotten any hideouts after opening six chests?
If you actually have a different answer for that than 17.8%, then I sense the opportunity for a small wager to settle the issue
Okay jaelis, I didn't want to do this, but I'm going to have to put my foot down and ask that you refrain from posting mathematical equations, as it causes my brain to hurt and smoke to come out of my ears, which makes the wife nervous and scares the heck out of my kids.Great, lets see what we get. We can test the hypothesis that the FoE stated percentages are correct. In that case, the expected average number of awards for 26 pulls is
The standard deviation for each award would be approximately the square root of those numbers (using the binomial distribution and approximating the probabilities as independent). So we can calculate the chi-square value for your observation as
chi2 = sum { [ (your value) - (expected value) ]^2 } / (expected value)
When I do this I get chi2 = 9.3. That's a measure of how unlikely your observation is, the bigger the chi2 value the less likely it is.
So you can look up a table that tells you how likely you are to get chi2 = 9.3 or larger, given that you have 8 categories you are observing. For instance, http://passel.unl.edu/Image/Namuth-CovertDeana956176274/chi-sqaure distribution table.PNG
This suggests that for 8 items (or degrees of freedom), the probability to get chi2 = 9.3 or larger is between 25% and 50%, so maybe 33%.
That means that about once out of every three trials (of 26 pulls each), you would expect to get results that look as far off as yours. So you were a bit unlucky, but not exceptionally so, and your data don't give any strong basis for claiming the FoE stated probabilities are incorrect.
That was a good exercise, I am glad that you shared your results.
Are you reading from the wiki? Because the quest does give you the option to build 3 from the previous ageI cannot complete an event quest without spending diamonds. I do not have any decorations available in my current age except for the premium one because I am not advanced enough in the tech tree in the future era. There should be an option for lower age decorations or if not I should be reimbursed for the 450 diamonds I am going to have to spend to proceed.
Your answer is wrong. On server 5 i start the future era and in the today quest i have: "Build 3 decoration from your age.". I build 3 deco from Tomorrow age, but nothink, the quest is on...... I can't build because i need about 300 FP and 1200 goods !!!!! THANKS INNO for your crap!Are you reading from the wiki? Because the quest does give you the option to build 3 from the previous age
Your answer is wrong. On server 5 i start the future era and in the today quest i have: "Build 3 decoration from your age.". I build 3 deco from Tomorrow age, but nothink, the quest is on...... I can't build because i need about 300 FP and 1200 goods !!!!! THANKS INNO for your crap!
I cannot complete an event quest without spending diamonds. I do not have any decorations available in my current age except for the premium one because I am not advanced enough in the tech tree in the future era. There should be an option for lower age decorations or if not I should be reimbursed for the 450 diamonds I am going to have to spend to proceed.
This is what I got on the EN server:Your answer is wrong. On server 5 i start the future era and in the today quest i have: "Build 3 decoration from your age.". I build 3 deco from Tomorrow age, but nothink, the quest is on...... I can't build because i need about 300 FP and 1200 goods !!!!! THANKS INNO for your crap!
this is on server 5 and server 4 , US . So, this is an discrimination?This is what I got on the EN server:
Now that I think about it, It was different on another server: I was in the CE and built a CE deco, and that counted for only 1/3 of the quest...