Xenosaur
Well-Known Member
Let's make it simple. Throw a coin in the air 2 times. What if comes up heads both times, are ya going to say the coin is fake and has no tails? Of course not.
How about throwing it up 5 times, and get 4 heads in row? Is that going to keep that bee in your bonnet about the coin being rigged and now incorrect probability of 50/50? Of course not again.
Ever seen a run of 18 Reds in a row on a legitimate roulette table? Sure. We have all seen long duration Red/Black runs. Makes you want to bet on black next time, right?
Well, maybe not. Red has the same chance to come again after 18 reds...as a black... hope you know that. Past results have nothing to do with future events when it comes to probability in cases like this. They're independent events and not related. But your brain can get the better of you if you let it.
Time and tries evens out probability to it's true value. In these cases, the coin will eventually flip tails maybe directly after 2 or 4 heads in a row. Another red or even a black will come up in roulette after 18 reds in a row.
But over time, LOTS of TIME - the universe demonstrates the true probability of an event. Same with Inno's buildings. You just have to believe that. If you don't any game is a very slippery slope. Even real card playing.
Capture some data (tally your daily outcomes...) on what you're getting and you'll see that. Just give it some time to form for you.
PS: Probably not best to hear about a coin flip landing on the coin edge. It's entirely possible, though. A computational model suggests that the chance of a coin landing on its edge and staying there is about 1 in 6000 for an American nickel.
How about throwing it up 5 times, and get 4 heads in row? Is that going to keep that bee in your bonnet about the coin being rigged and now incorrect probability of 50/50? Of course not again.
Ever seen a run of 18 Reds in a row on a legitimate roulette table? Sure. We have all seen long duration Red/Black runs. Makes you want to bet on black next time, right?
Well, maybe not. Red has the same chance to come again after 18 reds...as a black... hope you know that. Past results have nothing to do with future events when it comes to probability in cases like this. They're independent events and not related. But your brain can get the better of you if you let it.
Time and tries evens out probability to it's true value. In these cases, the coin will eventually flip tails maybe directly after 2 or 4 heads in a row. Another red or even a black will come up in roulette after 18 reds in a row.
But over time, LOTS of TIME - the universe demonstrates the true probability of an event. Same with Inno's buildings. You just have to believe that. If you don't any game is a very slippery slope. Even real card playing.
Capture some data (tally your daily outcomes...) on what you're getting and you'll see that. Just give it some time to form for you.
PS: Probably not best to hear about a coin flip landing on the coin edge. It's entirely possible, though. A computational model suggests that the chance of a coin landing on its edge and staying there is about 1 in 6000 for an American nickel.
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