• We are looking for you!
    Always wanted to join our Supporting Team? We are looking for enthusiastic moderators!
    Take a look at our recruitement page for more information and how you can apply:
    Apply

A question about math and odds for the winter specials

Expletive Deleted

Active Member
With the winter wonder retreat selection kit we are offered the holiday spa and snow globe specials.

The holiday spa has an offer of
1x reno fragment 75% odds
5x 1up fragments 25% odds


The snow globe is reversed at
1x 1up fragment 75% odds
5x reno fragment 25% odds

Considering you only need 30 fragments of either to complete a kit, what is the minimum number of either / both that one would need to obtain to guarantee they earn a complete 1up or complete reno kit every day?
 

Disgruntled Veteran

Active Member
Expletive Deleted said:
With the winter wonder retreat selection kit we are offered the holiday spa and snow globe specials.

The holiday spa has an offer of
1x reno fragment 75% odds
5x 1up fragments 25% odds


The snow globe is reversed at
1x 1up fragment 75% odds
5x reno fragment 25% odds

Considering you only need 30 fragments of either to complete a kit, what is the minimum number of either / both that one would need to obtain to guarantee they earn a complete 1up or complete reno kit every day?
Click to expand...


Probably more than ones enthusiasm can handle :cool:
 

Expletive Deleted

Active Member
rich.g1357 said:
Probably more than ones enthusiasm can handle :cool:
Click to expand...
I honestly missed the negative happiness effect.
Huh.

I do earn several 1ups from other sources in my city So I don't need to get them from /only/ this source.

I just want to figure out a way to make sure I'm earning at least 1/day if not more.

I've got the mass aid set with joyful nutcrackers on lock, if I can make sure I'll have a few hundred upgrades in store by the time space hub drops I'll be able to make some adjustments I've been working towards.
 
Emberguard

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
It won't be a guarantee, but consider it something like:
0.75 fragments (75%)
1.25 fragments (25%)

Because we're breaking this down into percentages, for calculation purposes I'm pretending you're getting both the 0.75 and the 1.25 each day from one building

30 / 1.25 = 24 buildings
30 / 0.75 = 40 buildings

Let's say 24 of one building to provide 18 fragments of one and 30 fragments of the other.

Another 10 of the opposite building would give you a combined total 30.5 Fragments of one, and 37.5 of the other

You could probably play around with the numbers a bit more, but that'll get you a One-Up + Reno Kit each day (in theory). Whichever item you want more, put the 24 buildings @ 5 fragments (25%) down for. If you want the other as well, put 10 of the opposite building.

Alternatively, do 48 of one building, You'll get 2 of the 25% item, and 1 of the 75% item
 

Disgruntled Veteran

Active Member
Galbotorix user of Naina said:
if your so worried about Happiness get a Gaea for your city
Click to expand...


Personally, I’m not worried. I’m just pointing out that people could easily hurt their city’s enthusiasm with these buildings. I currently have 9 capy’s, 6 globes, and 5 selection kits sitting in my inventory waiting to be put out. But at the moment my city's still enthusiastic when nothing’s been aided, I’d like to keep it that way
 

Expletive Deleted

Active Member
rich.g1357 said:
Personally, I’m not worried. I’m just pointing out that people could easily hurt their city’s enthusiasm with these buildings. I currently have 9 capy’s, 6 globes, and 5 selection kits sitting in my inventory waiting to be put out. But at the moment my city's still enthusiastic when nothing’s been aided, I’d like to keep it that way
Click to expand...
I'm not worried. Im enthusiastic +200k before any aid, and my entire city is using trails as road. Plus my GBs I can boost if needed, but I'll definitely have to monitor it. I'm hoping to build 10-ish of some combination of these.

I am at the end stage waiting for space hub in tech, and everything that's not currently Titan is old enough to be on the chopping block. So reno v 1up they are about equal value to me. 1ups get a slight boost for having fragments offered elsewhere so I can guarantee an average of 1/day easier.

Right now I'm really weighing rhe value of 'no road reqired' vs previous age goods. Considering the goods reqired for upgrading the Saturn Gate GBs, previous age goods will be pretty valuable. Probably moreso than 7fp.
 

Aristarchus1

Active Member
Expletive Deleted said:
With the winter wonder retreat selection kit we are offered the holiday spa and snow globe specials.

The holiday spa has an offer of
1x reno fragment 75% odds
5x 1up fragments 25% odds


The snow globe is reversed at
1x 1up fragment 75% odds
5x reno fragment 25% odds

Considering you only need 30 fragments of either to complete a kit, what is the minimum number of either / both that one would need to obtain to guarantee they earn a complete 1up or complete reno kit every day?
Click to expand...

It's pretty simple math. Same odds both buildings

1 x 75% + 5 x 25% = 1 x 0.75 + 5 x 0.25 = 0.75 + 1.25 = 2.00

Therefore you need 15 of those (15 x 2 = 30 ) to get on average all the fragments for 1 up or 1 reno kit. (both needing 30 frags each)

Basically with 15 of these buildings, after 30 days you will have statistically exactly 30 Total One-Up and reno kits altogether
( it might be 12 Reno and 18 one-up , or 18 reno and 12 one-up , depending on if you build the Spa or the Globe, respectively). If you want more Renos, you go for the globe obviously
 

Expletive Deleted

Active Member
Emberguard said:
It won't be a guarantee, but consider it something like:
0.75 fragments (75%)
1.25 fragments (25%)

Because we're breaking this down into percentages, for calculation purposes I'm pretending you're getting both the 0.75 and the 1.25 each day from one building

30 / 1.25 = 24 buildings
30 / 0.75 = 40 buildings

Let's say 24 of one building to provide 18 fragments of one and 30 fragments of the other.

Another 10 of the opposite building would give you a combined total 30.5 Fragments of one, and 37.5 of the other

You could probably play around with the numbers a bit more, but that'll get you a One-Up + Reno Kit each day (in theory). Whichever item you want more, put the 24 buildings @ 5 fragments (25%) down for. If you want the other as well, put 10 of the opposite building.

Alternatively, do 48 of one building, You'll get 2 of the 25% item, and 1 of the 75% item
Click to expand...
Thank you for giving me that starting point.
Working off that I think that a total of 32 buildings at a 16/16 split would effectively guarantee that you earned one of each daily. Considering 16 would average out to a 20/12 payout, by having 16 of each you'd average 32 of both.

As @Aristarchus1 pointed out, 15 of one would average to it over 30 days based on an average earning of 2fragments/day

I'm still currently undecided for which one I'm going for, or if I'll end up with a split. But working out these numbers is helpful. As it stands 10-14 is what I'll likely end up with in inventory by the end of the event.
 

Disgruntled Veteran

Active Member
Expletive Deleted said:
I'm not worried. Im enthusiastic +200k before any aid, and my entire city is using trails as road. Plus my GBs I can boost if needed, but I'll definitely have to monitor it. I'm hoping to build 10-ish of some combination of these.

I am at the end stage waiting for space hub in tech, and everything that's not currently Titan is old enough to be on the chopping block. So reno v 1up they are about equal value to me. 1ups get a slight boost for having fragments offered elsewhere so I can guarantee an average of 1/day easier.

Right now I'm really weighing rhe value of 'no road reqired' vs previous age goods. Considering the goods reqired for upgrading the Saturn Gate GBs, previous age goods will be pretty valuable. Probably moreso than 7fp.
Click to expand...

Do you have a Druid Hut?
 

Expletive Deleted

Active Member
rich.g1357 said:
Do you have a Druid Hut?
Click to expand...
I do have an archdruid hut. It's given up 5 full trees of vitality. With those, a couple grilling groves and buccaneer bays. I already average 11ish fragments of 1up. So I'm not going to be 100% relying on these specials.

Looking ahead I see a lot of small buildings being offered. More frequently than in past years. Meaning I'm expecting to need more 1ups for an age jump. With a little more than 100 in my inventory I figure if I can add another 250-300ish to the pile, I'll be well prepared.
 
Dursland

Dursland

Well-Known Member
Considering the happiness hit, I would wait until St Patrick's and get Trees of Silence for reno kits. That's the event after Wildlife, which is after Winter.

Best building for one-up kits are Grilling Groves, which is produced by the Sunhaven Palace (Fellowship event). A bit of a wait before that comes back to the game though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top