blueprint odds question

[dwaynedibley]

A question - does the number of blueprints currently in place affect where new random blueprints show up? I remember seeing someone posting an opinion stating that if you have that pesky empty blueprint slot the algorithm is less likely to place a new blueprint there, but it is more random if you have 5 or more prints in there. Is this an urban legend or BS, or not? Any experienced players out there know how this works?

 

[Emberguard]

It's a myth. There'll be times you'll get all 9 Blue Prints really easily and other times you'll struggle purely because it's random

If you divide each slot evenly that's 100/9 = 11.11* % chance for each spot.

At the start you don't care which spot gets a blue print. So there's a 100% chance you'll get one in a spot that doesn't already have one.

You get it in a spot. Great. Now there's a 11.11% chance you'll get a repeat, and a 88.88% chance it'll be any other blueprint. Second blue print on a unique spot? Great. Now you have 22.22% chance of repicking something you already got and 77.78% chance of it being a unique spot you haven't yet landed on

As you fill up slots, the chances of each individual slot remains exactly the same, that never changes. It was always 11.11% chance of landing on that spot right from the start. But the more slots you have filled the more outcomes become unfavourable in the perspective of the viewer. Because the combined total of spots you've already obtained is far greater then the combined total of the final spot you require