Spring Lantern event.

[DeletedUser26120]

OK you're right mate.

They are screwing us all.

Please accept this apology on behalf of all players everywhere and thank you.

Now go do something good for your family instead of posting about it.

 

[Mustapha00]

While I certainly don't blame Inno- my streak of ill luck when it comes to probability started long before I was aware of them and will, doubtless, continue long after I've forgotten them- I can certainly commiserate with those who are frustrated.
I know that a distressingly large number of my lanterns have gone to purchasing Blueprints that I will almost certainly never use than towards anything I might actually have a use for.

 

[DeletedUser9930]

@kaschi -- You're right, there is a high probability of getting at least one 25% item, about 94% after 10 tries and just under 99% after 15 tries. ;-) However, unlikely runs do happen, because, even though you've missed getting the item 15 times in a row, the probability of getting it on the next throw is still only 25% :'-( C'est la vie!

 

[DeletedUser]

@kaschi -- You're right, there is a high probability of getting at least one 25% item, about 94% after 10 tries and just under 99% after 15 tries. ;-) However, unlikely runs do happen, because, even though you've missed getting the item 15 times in a row, the probability of getting it on the next throw is still only 25% :'-( C'est la vie!

It's faulty reasoning like this that makes Inno a ton of money in these events. You even disprove your own first sentence statement with your second sentence statement. If it were true that the probability of getting at least one 25% item is @99% after 15 tries, and you didn't get it on the first 14, then logically the probability on that 15th try should be @99%. It isn't, of course, as you stated, it is still 25%. Always and forever.

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

Now i am trying to figure out what can be your interest defending corporation!!!!
You have nothing to do what i try. I listened your opinion that doesn't relate to reality. You say, what you
think, procedure says. I publicized my experience and its not only me, there are other people who has same
experience. Yet you trying to defend inno, there must be some interest here. Do you get some free diamonds
by defending inno or you want to be moderator?
What a joke ppl are these days. I shared my first hand experience of several years and you say my experience is
false.
Why would i post wrong info (ie my experience)? In another post i also admitted that foe is way better than many other games and i
explained how. I play this game and i have to raise issues and problems that i or other people experience.
I guess its time for you to move on. Just move on if you can't digest.
Note: you don't need to call your supporters to post comments in your favor. If you believe what you say is truth, you don't need others to endorse you. Do something good for your
family instead.

Funny that's my advice for you. Since you were the one that started making false claims of cheating and lying I'd say it's you that needs 'to move on'. I didn't defend Inno in my posts. I always discussed your lack of understanding of the math behind your claims of lying and cheating. Why? Because I chose to just as you chose to make all the posts you've made.

 

[DeletedUser9930]

@Longshanks -- It is true that the probability in 15 tries is 99% (My fault, I should have said 'in' instead of after and I should have explained that the 15 tries include other people who are trying their luck at the same time. It's like the wheel in the Summer Event, one person fails to win in twenty spins, while the next one to spin wins quickly.), because we're looking at the universe of 15-attempt 'packages,' many of which will get the desired item multiple times. What you're speaking of is the fallacy of 'due' results. The probability of getting exactly one 25% item on the 16th try is about 0.3%, but that's only if we're considering the universe of 16-attempt packages. Sorry to be confusing, but probability is not my field; so I don't explain it well. :-(

 

[DeletedUser]

@Longshanks -- It is true that the probability in 15 tries is 99% (My fault, I should have said 'in' instead of after and I should have explained that the 15 tries include other people who are trying their luck at the same time. It's like the wheel in the Summer Event, one person fails to win in twenty spins, while the next one to spin wins quickly.), because we're looking at the universe of 15-attempt 'packages,' many of which will get the desired item multiple times. What you're speaking of is the fallacy of 'due' results. The probability of getting exactly one 25% item on the 16th try is about 0.3%, but that's only if we're considering the universe of 16-attempt packages. Sorry to be confusing, but probability is not my field; so I don't explain it well. :-(

No, I'm not speaking of the "fallacy of 'due' results", actually known as the Gambler's Fallacy (Google it). In matter of fact, what you are saying is a perfect example of the Gambler's Fallacy. Previous tries, including other people's attempts, do not affect the probability of subsequent events. Therefore, each attempt has a 25% probability of success, and it never changes. And there is no cumulative probability in truly random chances, because each attempt is completely independent of all other attempts as far as probability of success is concerned. This is actually illustrated in the game, where some people try repeatedly and fail, while others succeed almost immediately, and sometimes over and over again. I have actually had really good luck getting certain 25% prizes, but it doesn't make me think the game is rigged in my favor, because I understand the probabilities of random chance.

 

[DeletedUser9930]

@Longshanks -- I see I'm still not explaining properly. I agree that previous attempts do not affect the outcome of subsequent tries. Nevertheless, we can say something about the probability of a 25%-chance event occurring in a certain number of tries, thus we're considering tries 1 through15, 2 through 16, etc. as well as any other grouping of fifteen that can occur. In 1000 attempts, there are 1000!/(985! x 15!) groupings of 15. We're on the same side of this question.

 

[DeletedUser3679]

I have seen a lot of "interesting" rants and a lot of misunderstandings on statistics in this forum, but this one takes the cake! I agree with others that just walking away is by far the best thing to do at this point.

 

[DeletedUser28984]

I can't stop laughing at this thread. This just made my morning.

 

[DeletedUser28986]

I'm humored by the confusion between probability and percentage.

Spring event and rewards were clearly made to be enjoyed despite what 'tough luck' trolls might suggest. That being said, i too was hopeful for the Entrance today, spent 7 tries and got forge points almost exclusively. Alas, nothing more than just poor reward design and poor luck. From a marketing point, i'd be inclined to spend money on transactions if there was a chance I could effect the outcomes (e.g. complete quests and work towards specific rewards) but that is beyond us players.

At least its thursday! ha.