[Question] What is the chance of finding the last missing BP for a GB?

[DeletedUser28323]

The situation is when you have all the blueprints for a Great building except one. Then you receive more blueprints for exactly this GB (from aiding, trade 2:1, guests or awards for FP contributions). The newly blueprints (for this GB) are added on random places but what is the chance to be exactly the missing one? It is not 1/9 (11%)! In order the teaser for 200 diamonds to stay longer I assume that the developers have changed it when only one is left. But what is the probability in this case? 1/50 (2%)? 1/100 (1%)? Just want to know what to expect if this information is available.

 

[DeletedUser8152]

My experience suggest that is is indeed 1/9. But you would need to collect quite a lot of statistics to say with certainty either way. Well, I can say with good confidence that it is not 1% or 2%. I got essentially all my BPs without diamonds and it would have taken much longer.

 

[DeletedUser28323]

Thanks jaelis,
I have 4 GB with only one missing BP and have made 9+ tries for every one of them with no luck. I know that statistically it is still possible to be 1/9 however unlikely. With their aggressive diamonds tactics it is more likely to use such situations for acceleration of potential clients to make up their minds.
I will post in this thread how my statistic changes. Now it is like 1/12 (8%) with tendency of dropping even further.

 

[DeletedUser14197]

Thanks jaelis,
I have 4 GB with only one missing BP and have made 9+ tries for every one of them with no luck. I know that statistically it is still possible to be 1/9 however unlikely. With their aggressive diamonds tactics it is more likely to use such situations for acceleration of potential clients to make up their minds.
I will post in this thread how my statistic changes. Now it is like 1/12 (8%) with tendency of dropping even further.

I have never bought a blueprint with diamonds either, for the simple reason I am afraid I would get it the next time I got a blueprint and kick myself for spending the diamonds. I have felt the same way you feel too. But, I have always gotten a full set ..... in time. Sometimes it takes a lot of patience and maybe donating to the right gbs and taking a spot sometimes helpts too.

 

[DeletedUser28323]

I have to confirm that the chance is indeed 1/9. Since I open this thread the game gave me 2 blueprints of the 4 GB that had only one missing. So if I update the calculations it is almost 1/9.

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

Inno can play the long game here without messing with the stats. Given the sheer number of players some will get impatient early and buy and some may simply get that blueprint after trying for a fairly long time. Took me about 2.5 months to get my last blueprint for my CDM with GB donation and specific blue print polish/motivating to target buildings of the right age for the CDM. In perspective I got my 1st traz blueprint about 2 months into the hunt for that last CDM blueprint......and got the last traz blueprint the same day I got the CDM blueprint. You got to 'love' random chance.