Forge Bowl lvl 7 PoH – Last minute strategy tweak!

[DeletedUser32620]

1/30/2018: Another update, and a simpler method! User Garbagenothing on the Fandom Wiki forums has had a strategy posted for days, but I was not understanding his approach. He looked at each cooler's contribution to both Daily Special chance and to yardage, and simply ranked them by this combined contribution. Result: 95.5% chance of success, as verified in my model.

Extremely simple strategy also, just wait for PoH upgrade to be the daily special (tomorrow 1/31!) and then pick from the following priority:

Combined Efficiency (Garbagenothing's ranking)

1. Blue 80 (best)
2. Blue 135
3. Blue 65
4. Orange 85
5. Orange 60
6. Blue 120
7. Orange 100
   
8. Orange 90
9. Orange 150
10. Blue 210 (worst)

Good luck!



Ignore old post below!

Everybody who wants a level 7 Pillar of Heroes has saved all their footballs so far, right! For background, see my original post here showing a strategy of selecting coolers based on Best Daily Special Efficiency (highest DS chance per football).

Over on the Fandom wiki forums, Cheefachi suggested a tweak to this strategy: Pick the Best DS Efficiency coolers until you score 2 DS pillar upgrades, then go for touchdowns by selecting Best Yardage Efficiency coolers. I plugged this new strategy into my model, and sure enough, it improved the winning chance (from 93.2% to 94.3%).

I thought about this a little more, and decided that swapping to Best Yardage might not be a good idea if you don’t have a lot of footballs left. So I rewrote my model to allow a side-by-side comparison of swapping vs. not swapping on each trial run. The differences are minimal, but I was able to squeeze out another half percent (up to 94.8%) by refining the strategy as follows:

Strategy

1. Get all the footballs you can (3640 without spending diamonds). Don’t spend any footballs until the PoH Upgrade is available as the daily special.
2. Start with Best Daily Special Efficiency coolers (see Table 1 below). Pick the best choice from that list out of the three available coolers every time you pick. Track how many times you win the PoH upgrade on daily specials.
3. The second time you win the upgrade as a DS, stop and count all your available footballs. Be sure to include both the remaining footballs you have plus the ones remaining to be collected during the rest of the event.
   • If you have fewer than 1250 footballs available, continue picking based on Table 1, Best DS Efficiency coolers.
   • If you have 1250 or more footballs available, swap to Table 2, Best Yardage Efficiency coolers.

If all that is more complicated than you care to worry about, see my original post here that has the simpler approach and almost as good results.

Snapshots of the results from my model are here. Since the margins of difference are so small at this point, I ran 500,000 trials for each strategy.


Table 1 - Best Daily Special Efficiency

1. Blue 80 (best)
2. Orange 60
3. Blue 65
4. Blue 135
5. Orange 85
6. Orange 100
7. Blue 120
8. Orange 90
9. Blue 210
10. Orange 150 (worst)

Table 2 – Best Yardage Efficiency

1. 
   
2. 
   
3. Orange 150 (best)
   
   
4. Blue 120
   
   
5. Orange 85
   
   
6. Orange 90
   
   
7. Blue 135
   
   
8. Orange 100
   
   
9. Blue 210
   
   
10. Blue 65
    
    
11. Blue 80
    
    
12. Orange 60 (worst)

 

[DeletedUser29218]

Thanks for the work! I could spent 2k diamonds from guild expeditions for 1200 footballs and I'm wondering what are the odds of getting 2x lvl7 or 1 lvl7+lvl5.

Could you upload the spreadsheet? I think me (and many) would like to toy around with it.

 

[DeletedUser29623]

This is wonderful and so clear. Thank you!

 

[DeletedUser15539]

Thank you. I truly appreciate the time and effort you put in to all of this.

 

[DeletedUser32824]

So is the essence of this to get 2 from DS and then go for the 3rd touchdown? Basically what I said in my original post?

 

[DeletedUser32620]

So is the essence of this to get 2 from DS and then go for the 3rd touchdown? Basically what I said in my original post?

Yes! Except for the minor tweak of sticking with going for more DS if you have < 1250 footballs left when you get the 2nd DS, it works out to exactly the strategy you originally posted! This strategy is about 1% better than going for DS and never changing.

I do want to stress that it is important to go for the 2 DS first and only then switch to going for touchdowns. It is impossible to win with only 1 DS. (No simulations succeeded in scoring the 5 TD's that would be needed to get a 3rd upgrade from TD's, even if always picking best yardage efficiency coolers.) Lock in your 2 DS, and then if you have >=1250 footballs left, switch to going for TD's, but still do it on days when the upgrade is available as the DS. Even if you don't score the 3rd TD (2nd TD upgrade), you still have a chance of getting a 3rd DS upgrade.

 

[DeletedUser32824]

I want to get 8 upgrades from DS though so I can make another PoH

 

[ODragon]

On both V and Y with 2900 each, following this method exactly, got 3 upgrades (P4 total) each. This is pretty disappointing and actually why I've sat out earlier events. I liked the reward on this one but not enough for all the scouting I had to do to participate. Not sure I'll past today's quest as both worlds would require yet more scouting to do it. Doesn't seem like with what's left that it's worth the effort.

 

[DeletedUser29623]

Worked very well! I got 7 upgrades in each of my worlds, on top of the two I’ve already used on the pillars in each. Makes me wish for another pillar, though.

 

[DeletedUser31592]

I went for the upgrades in 6 of my 7 worlds (went after SoKs in the other)

I made it in 5 of the 6. The other is only 33 yards from the 3rd TD, which will give me the upgrade.

In Y, I ended up with 6 upgrades before getting my first TD! So I have 7 upgrades. I have 1,500 footballs left. I will definitely go after another PoH. I'm debating taking a few shots at another upgrade today, since it seems to be hot for me.

On my main, I quit back on quest 24 (scouting) and I got all 5 upgrades with a whole 10 footballs to spare!!

I have between 775 and 1,000 footballs left in the other three cities. I will have to think about how I want to spend them....

 

[DeletedUser32824]

I ended up with the following (so far)
1 from quests (1 more coming)
1 from TD (1 more coming)
3 from DS. (woo!)

So I have 8 total! I'm wondering if I should save FBs and go for a pillar lvl 1 and drop a lvl 2 pillar in my city. At the moment my FP production is weak and I could use all the help I can get.

Worked very well! I got 7 upgrades in each of my worlds, on top of the two I’ve already used on the pillars in each. Makes me wish for another pillar, though.

On the beta I think there was another lvl 1 pillar as a DS after the first DS upgrade.

 

[DeletedUser32620]

I got the full upgrade! (1 from quest + 1 coming, 1 from TD, 3 from DS). My results this morning:

Total: 2385 footballs spent (so far), 23 coolers selected, 103 yards gained, 2 TD's

1. Blue 80 (best) 9 coolers, 23 yards, 1 DS
   
2. Blue 135 10 coolers, 65 yards, 2 DS
   
3. Blue 65 3 coolers, 8 yards
   
4. Orange 85
5. Orange 60
6. Blue 120 1 cooler, 7 yards
   
7. Orange 100
   
8. Orange 90
9. Orange 150
10. Blue 210 (worst)

 

[DeletedUser32965]

I'm new to the game.Perhaps this was looked at.
Still, I find this very LAME move.Taking away almost full day (and at the end of the event) .... I find this problematic (to say the least).
two main currencies in the game like this - money and time
I do understand that there has to be some limiting factor so that ppl. would not just throw a lot of money at it, and get everything.
But I bought zero Balls.And some assignments took full day or more.
Am I missing something here?

 

[DeletedUser]

Am I missing something here?

Yes. This, from the Event Announcement post:
"You will be able to complete 20 quests immediately, and then you will receive one quest per day until the last day of the event. The daily quests will stack, so you will probably have a few of them waiting for you, when you're done with the initial 20 quests."

 

[Graviton]

They didn't take a way a full day, they gave us footballs for doing nothing today.

 

[DeletedUser]

They didn't take a way a full day, they gave us footballs for doing nothing today.

I think @petar202 was posting a pic of after she caught up on the daily questline. In other words, she finished that day's quest and it was the first time in the event that she had to wait for the next day's quest.

 

[DeletedUser32965]

I think @petar202 was posting a pic of after she caught up on the daily questline. In other words, she finished that day's quest and it was the first time in the event that she had to wait for the next day's quest.

That is the case.
But I understand now.If one wants to continue, one can just buy some balls.Like in any other business that we call "Game".... customer (player) can gain unlimted advantage provided one can justified to one self spending money on something like this.
Otherwise, game does look nice, (which is why I got on board).

Thank You all for response.

 

[DeletedUser]

Like in any other business that we call "Game".... customer (player) can gain unlimted advantage provided one can justified to one self spending money on something like this.

This is true, but the dynamics of this game are such that you can have a perfectly fine and fun time playing it without spending money and not be affected very much at all by the big spenders. That is part of its appeal to me, although at first I was as disgusted as you at the big spending by some. The economics of any business that we call "Game" is that someone has to pay for us to play. The servers and coding and other overhead costs don't pay themselves, so someone has to. Some players spend big money, and some spend a moderate amount, and that allows others to play for free. And as I said, largely unaffected by the big spenders.

 

[DeletedUser32965]

This is true, but the dynamics of this game are such that you can have a perfectly fine and fun time playing it without spending money and not be affected very much at all by the big spenders. That is part of its appeal to me, although at first I was as disgusted as you at the big spending by some. The economics of any business that we call "Game" is that someone has to pay for us to play. The servers and coding and other overhead costs don't pay themselves, so someone has to. Some players spend big money, and some spend a moderate amount, and that allows others to play for free. And as I said, largely unaffected by the big spenders.

Agree.
But, no one is paying for anyone else ...
Some pay with what we call money, and other with their time.
Just think for few seconds what would happen if all those who are not "paying customers" left all "Free to Play" "Games" ...
Empty servers, and ppl that ARE spending small fortunes, whould not continue to do that any more.
It is not that games can not live on sub.They could.But they can get MUCH more in micro transactions, with bonus rationalisation that they are giving free service to some (large) number of ppl.So they even get to feel good about themself.
Win win, as they say.
All this is from my limited XP...One MMO FtP (STO-did not start as such) in which I spent some money.SWTOR, subed (and even though theoraticly You can CHECK IT OUT, as I call it, for free) time factor prevents You to do that even remotely efficient.Another (that started as "free to play", and now has a thing called VIP access (that saves so much time that anyone that say "that is just convenience" is not thinking strait) which comes down to sub (You buy VIP access on monthly basis).It is called Neverwinter Online (same company as STO - Star Trek Online.
I realise, this is different kind of "game".But basic principals apply.
I will stop here.
I do come from different culture, so there is a small chance that someone will even care.

 

[DeletedUser30900]

Agree.
But, no one is paying for anyone else ...
Some pay with what we call money, and other with their time.
Just think for few seconds what would happen if all those who are not "paying customers" left all "Free to Play" "Games" ...
Empty servers, and ppl that ARE spending small fortunes, whould not continue to do that any more.
It is not that games can not live on sub.They could.But they can get MUCH more in micro transactions, with bonus rationalisation that they are giving free service to some (large) number of ppl.So they even get to feel good about themself.
Win win, as they say.
All this is from my limited XP...One MMO FtP (STO-did not start as such) in which I spent some money.SWTOR, subed (and even though theoraticly You can CHECK IT OUT, as I call it, for free) time factor prevents You to do that even remotely efficient.Another (that started as "free to play", and now has a thing called VIP access (that saves so much time that anyone that say "that is just convenience" is not thinking strait) which comes down to sub (You buy VIP access on monthly basis).It is called Neverwinter Online (same company as STO - Star Trek Online.
I realise, this is different kind of "game".But basic principals apply.
I will stop here.
I do come from different culture, so there is a small chance that someone will even care.

So you telling me I don’t have to suffer from these different colors words no more? Thank you, Jesus!