GbG attrition question.

[al bundy 007]

What is the chance of attrition supposed to be when attacking a sector with 4 siege camps in support. People say 4% but that number doesn’t seem to be realistic.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

24% less per SC of support x 4 = 96% ( or 4% attrition chance)

 

[Kranyar the Mysterious]

The percentages don't always seem to work out, whether due to to random chance or code issues, who knows. I do know that I took attrition 9 battles in a row yesterday with 4 SC.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

The percentages don't always seem to work out, whether due to to random chance or code issues, who knows. I do know that I took attrition 9 battles in a row yesterday with 4 SC.

Agreed . I have gotten 5 and 6 in a row often. I cleared an entire 160 sector on the overnight with 3 SC on it and my attrition was at 39 when I was done. The numbers are pure fiction. You can count on at attrition of 8-12 with 4 SC against that sector on a very regular basis.

 

[Pericles the Lion]

The info box for a SC says that it provides a "24% chance to not increase attrition level". In reading through a several threads on this topic it seems that the consensus is that the percentages are additive. For example, a sector supported by 4 SCs should have a 96% chance of not increasing attrition when attacked (4x24%). Is it possible that the calculation treats each SC separately? If there is a 24% chance of no increase then there is a 76% chance that there will be an increase (per SC). So, could it be that a sector supported by 4 SCs actually has a 33.3% chance of increasing attrition (.76x.76x.76x.76)?

 

[Emberguard]

The info box for a SC says that it provides a "24% chance to not increase attrition level". In reading through a several threads on this topic it seems that the consensus is that the percentages are additive. For example, a sector supported by 4 SCs should have a 96% chance of not increasing attrition when attacked (4x24%). Is it possible that the calculation treats each SC separately? If there is a 24% chance of no increase then there is a 76% chance that there will be an increase (per SC). So, could it be that a sector supported by 4 SCs actually has a 33.3% chance of increasing attrition (.76x.76x.76x.76)?

The developers themselves confirmed it was additive back when it was released on Beta

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

4% chance isn't that low when you do enough battles. The longshots come in and yes multiple times i've wondered (and double checked) to make sure I had the camp count correct.

 

[MacArtCormac]

when you flip a coin 99 times and it lands on heads each time, what is the chance it will land on heads the 100th time? 50% cause its always gonna be 50-50. so when you gain attrition 9 times in a row, what are your chances of getting attrition the10th time? same...its STILL 4%.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

when you flip a coin 99 times and it lands on heads each time, what is the chance it will land on heads the 100th time? 50% cause its always gonna be 50-50. so when you gain attrition 9 times in a row, what are your chances of getting attrition the10th time? same...its STILL 4%.

The chance of getting a twenty five sided dice to land on the same number 9 times in a row is common in your reality ?

 

[MacArtCormac]

The chance of getting a twenty five sided dice to land on the same number 9 times in a row is common in your reality ?

that depends...what are the chances of the coin landing on the heads the 100th time? or do you deny that its still 50/50 no matter how many times its flipped? im just saying...50/50 is always gonna be there. so is 4%. i was playing GbG one time and got 25 diamonds 3 battles in a row...but i dont think that changed the odds...

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

50/50 is always 50/50 when you are referring to a single event. We are not talking about a single event we are talking about a chain of events with an unbroken streak. 5 times landing on the same number of the 25 sided dice is a slim possibility but a possibility nonetheless. Having it happen to multiple people during a single week demonstrates that the 4% is weighted and not a straight 4% chance. I have never fought 100 fights and had it less that 5 and I have over 200K fights in.

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

No actually it doesn't demonstrate that the 4% chance is weighted. The chances of it happening are going to be dependent on the sheer number of players involved and quite frankly they don't track it but rely on memory which isn't reliable whether you have 200k fights or 100.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

No actually it doesn't demonstrate that the 4% chance is weighted. The chances of it happening are going to be dependent on the sheer number of players involved and quite frankly they don't track it but rely on memory which isn't reliable whether you have 200k fights or 100.

It's very reliable if you are in a solo guild for 5 months like I was. You alone attack a sector and when you finally get to a sector that has 4SC on it which may take 2-4 days you pay attention to the stats on that sector. Now I am on the overnight and many times I have leveled sectors by myself and pay attention. I have never gotten less than 5 attrition from 100 fights but many times have gotten strings of 3, 4 and 5 attrition in a row. If you've ever played D&D you will know how rare getting two rolls the same on a 20 face die is let alone 3. It's weighted period.

 

[MacArtCormac]

It's very reliable if you are in a solo guild for 5 months like I was. You alone attack a sector and when you finally get to a sector that has 4SC on it which make take 2-4 days you pay attention to the stats on that sector. Now I am on the overnight and many times I have leveled sectors by myself and pay attention. I have never gotten less than 5 attrition from 100 fights but many times have gotten strings of 3, 4 and 5 attrition in a row. If you've ever played D&D you will know how rare getting two rolls the same on a 20 face die is let alone 3. It's weighted period.

open a ticket and see what support has to say about the issue. i find it highly compelling.

 

[Max Damien]

I believe the rational and obvious clue for it all is in the description whereas it states
"they have a 24% CHANCE to not increase their attrition level"
its a gamble/chance, as a easy visual example is to use a 4 sided die with one side marked "no attrition" and the other 3 sides marked "full attrition" that is rolled and by 24%...well ok 25% chance of it coming up no attrition ....1 out of 4 chance and each camp that is involved would have its own die marked the same and when the battle is done ...no matter how many camps 1 or 20 all of the camp dice would be put into the virtual yahtzee cup and rolled and if just one showed "no attrition" then that was the outcome....no added attrition. I believe that is how the algorithm would be coded into the game as also does a support moderator that answered a ticket I submitted on the subject and replied back to me. But, for a concrete answer need to have a game coder to give a definitive answer. If any Inno game coders could chime in, I for one would like to know for sure.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

They must be additive , 4 Siege Camps and a Tower add up to over 100% or no chance of attrition. I have 213,000 fights in on Q and have never gotten 1 point of attrition when the camps were over 4 or it was 4 with a tower. If it was with the dice example that would not be the case with the odd attrition point happening every now and then. Many more players on here that fight a lot as well can vouch for this happening. When you have a lot of sectors to clear you can go though 6-700 fights in one round and never get a point of attrition as long as there are 4+ SC against the ones you attack.

 

[Agent327]

I believe the rational and obvious clue for it all is in the description whereas it states
"they have a 24% CHANCE to not increase their attrition level"
its a gamble/chance, as a easy visual example is to use a 4 sided die with one side marked "no attrition" and the other 3 sides marked "full attrition" that is rolled and by 24%...well ok 25% chance of it coming up no attrition ....1 out of 4 chance and each camp that is involved would have its own die marked the same and when the battle is done ...no matter how many camps 1 or 20 all of the camp dice would be put into the virtual yahtzee cup and rolled and if just one showed "no attrition" then that was the outcome....no added attrition. I believe that is how the algorithm would be coded into the game as also does a support moderator that answered a ticket I submitted on the subject and replied back to me. But, for a concrete answer need to have a game coder to give a definitive answer. If any Inno game coders could chime in, I for one would like to know for sure.

You are wrong. Devs already chimed in. It is additive. 1 Camp is 24%, 2 Camps 48% and so on.

 

[Pericles the Lion]

You are wrong. Devs already chimed in. It is additive. 1 Camp is 24%, 2 Camps 48% and so on.

Although I do believe that the SCs are additive I did some searching about a month ago trying to find the post where the "devs chimed in". The closest that I could come was a player on a thread claiming that a dev on the German server claimed that it was additive. Hearsay. at best. Anyway, my continuing interest isn't about SC additivity, it's about devs actually communicating with players. Please share the post where the dev chimed in and restore my confidence that the do care about what players post on the Forum.

 

[Emberguard]

Although I do believe that the SCs are additive I did some searching about a month ago trying to find the post where the "devs chimed in". The closest that I could come was a player on a thread claiming that a dev on the German server claimed that it was additive. Hearsay. at best. Anyway, my continuing interest isn't about SC additivity, it's about devs actually communicating with players. Please share the post where the dev chimed in and restore my confidence that the do care about what players post on the Forum.

Some of the devs accounts have since been either deleted, had the staff tags removed and/or modified. Finding specific posts by the devs is going to be pretty difficult. I can try to see if I can find something publicly posted, but it might be one of those things that gets lost to time. Thinking I should start bookmarking things xD

 

[Agent327]

Some of the devs accounts have since been either deleted, had the staff tags removed and/or modified. Finding specific posts by the devs is going to be pretty difficult. I can try to see if I can find something publicly posted, but it might be one of those things that gets lost to time. Thinking I should start bookmarking things xD

Don't bother. If you find it he will question it anyhow. Even a message from a CM is not good enough for him. Devs hold Q&A sessions on Facebook and he feels they do not communicate.