GBG Siege Tower Question

[Kranyar the Mysterious]

I've been having an argument with a long established high age player who is telling everyone that 5 siege towers doesn't guarantee 0 attrition, whether against traps or not, and that he sees attrition when we have 5 towers on a regular basis. He is trying to convince the leadership to stop "wasting" goods on so many towers.

I've pointed out plenty of places where I see it reported that the tower % is additive, but he says that none of what I show is official, and he knows otherwise. Am I wrong? I don't think so, and I've never seen a single point of attrition with 5 towers or 4 towers and a watchtower, even after tons of battles, but maybe I'm wrong?

Is there any official statement of how it works that anyone knows of that I can point our leadership to to?

 

[Super Catanian]

With chance percentages like that, the chance is very low, but not zero. Tried doing the math, but couldn't figure out the true formula for it, or rather, I wasn't sure how to multiply the percentages.

 

[Kranyar the Mysterious]

With chance percentages like that, the chance is very low, but not zero. Tried doing the math, but couldn't figure out the true formula for it, or rather, I wasn't sure how to multiply the percentages.

The way I understood it, the towers add up to 100%+, giving 0 attrition, then if traps activate they just double the 0 to 0. Are you agreeing that the effect is not additive?

If they aren't then you would basically have a 25% chance to not have attrition, then check again, 25%, etc. etc, and in that case you should see attrition quite often with 5 towers.

 

[DeletedUser37581]

The stacking of Siege Camps is additive. With 4 Camps, there is a 96% chance of 0 attrition (regardless of the number of Traps). With 5 or more Camps, there is a 100% chance of 0 attrition (even against 3 Traps).

 

[Kranyar the Mysterious]

The stacking of Siege Camps is additive. With 4 Camps, there is a 96% chance of 0 attrition (regardless of the number of Traps). With 5 or more Camps, there is a 100% chance of 0 attrition (even against 3 Traps).

Ok, that is what I thought, and what I read. Do you know if there is any official source on this material, or is it all player based? All I could find is player based.

 

[DeletedUser29726]

It's all player based. but there's a significant number of corroborating sources by now (myself included). I've run hundreds of fights without seeing an attrition increase when past 100% on siege camp effect. and have had experiences with 4 siege camps that were close to 96% across a large number of encounters (which if it was multiplicative would've been 67% (1-.76^4) and the difference would've been very noticeable)

 

[barra370804]

maybe I'm wrong?

You are. Think of it as a spinning wheel with a 75% section and a 25% section. If there are 5 siege towers, it would spin that wheel 5 times.

 

[Algona]

Tried doing the math, but couldn't figure out the true formula for it, or rather, I wasn't sure how to multiply the percentages.

If it worked as barre suggest you do the math as xivarmy says here:

if it was multiplicative would've been 67% (1-.76^4)

But it doesn't work that way, it's additive. not multiplicative.

You are. Think of it as a spinning wheel with a 75% section and a 25% section. If there are 5 siege towers, it would spin that wheel 5 times.

Pretty sure Kranyar is right. As are xivarmy and dontwannaname. Siege Tower probability is additive, not multiplicative.

The telling differences are at 4 and 5 Siege Towers. 5 under your suggestion would mean attriting 1-.76^5 = .254 or 25.4% of the time and 4 would be 1 - .76^4 = .334 or 33.4% of the time.

Instead the chance for attrition is 0 at 5 Towers and .04 or 4% at 4 Siege towers.

Two leagues running my MK Guild has been fighting with multiple siege towers supporting. Collectively thousands of fights at four towers, hundreds at five towers. We never attrit with 5 and almost never with 4. 0 and 4% chance...